ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

As always an excellent write up in the NHC 5:00AM discussion by Stacy Stewart. He lays it all out there and explains the scenario. Bottom line...It's about to get real for the Bahamas, Hispaniola, and the Southeast US.

SFT

[gatorcane]

Notice he suggests this could be a situation where she pumps up the ridge.

That means she could get more west. Does not sound like he is buying the eastern models and giving the GFDL a lot of weight

Plus the subtropical ridge is very strong still

[SkeetoBite]

Notice he suggests this could be a situation where she pumps up the ridge.

That means she could get more west. Does not sound like he is buying the eastern models.

Plus the subtropical ridge is very strong still

That's the part I keep reading repeatedly. Still an "edge of the seat" situation.

[wzrgirl1]

This is not good folks. Take this seriously. South Florida could have a major hurricane on it's doorstep in 72 hours. Check your supplies TODAY. Make sure your shutters are in order. I have been through this enough to know the implications of not being prepared. Preparation is the key to staying safe and secure.

[SouthFLTropics]

Notice he suggests this could be a situation where she pumps up the ridge.

That means she could get more west. Does not sound like he is buying the eastern models and giving the GFDL a lot of weight

Plus the subtropical ridge is very strong still

I noticed that as well Gator. Stacy Stewart is like EF Hutton...When he speaks, people listen. I'll be very interested to see what the GFS does here in about 30 minutes. I also think when we get some GIV data into the models the picture will be very clear regarding our fate here in South/Central Florida. Personally I think the models have locked in on a solution of a coast hugger up to Georgia. We may see Georgia get it's first major hit in a very long time.

SFT

[Brent]

[bamajammer4eva]

Notice he suggests this could be a situation where she pumps up the ridge.

That means she could get more west. Does not sound like he is buying the eastern models and giving the GFDL a lot of weight

Plus the subtropical ridge is very strong still

He specifically says that here so FL/Gulf is still not out of play. This is also evidence by the cone.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.

[bexar]

these "I" storms are really scary and looks like Irene may not be an exception

[Chacor]

Interesting to see no TS warning for northeastern Cuba at all.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL+gif/085712W5_NL_sm.gif

that track looks to far south, Irene gaining latitude, i doubt the core ever touches the shore...inflow could be disrupted but the conditions look real good for it to go right by to the north of Hispaniola without any degradation and in fact probably strengthen, looks like a clean shot into the SE USA

[alan1961]

Centre almost off the northern coast of PR on Radar.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'll be very interested to see some VDM's from Recon when they get back in there. The motion seems more NW than W or WNW to me right now. Could just be a wobble, but a wobble here and a wobble there will have big implications for us here in Florida down the road.

SFT

[beoumont]

That discussion has got to be one of the most spectacular in history. One for the books.

Stewart threw everything out there, including the (kitchen ) sink. Wow--ee--wow--wow!

It woke me up wide, that's for sure.

"Here come da judge! "

[SouthFLTropics]

That discussion has got to be one of the most spectacular in history. One for the books.

It woke me up wide, that's for sure.

"Here come da judge! "

Stacy Stewart is the best in the business when it comes to writing the discussions. He's put out some great ones over the years.

SFT

OT - I just realized I'm a Cat 4 with over 900 posts. I have a feeling I'll be a Cat 5 before this week is over.

[bahamaswx]

Straight through the entire Bahamas. Hasn't happened in a long time. See if it verifies.

[Chacor]

WTNT64 KNHC 220958
TCUAT4

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
550 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

CORRECTED TIME IN DATE/STIME HEADER

PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE
DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSAND
HOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND.

ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[robbielyn]

where is everyone we gotta hurricane on our hands. I know its a little early but thought the diehards would be up early to see what progress the storm made since last night lol

[SouthFLTropics]

WTNT64 KNHC 220958
TCUAT4

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
550 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

CORRECTED TIME IN DATE/STIME HEADER

PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE
DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSAND
HOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND.


ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Wow!!! Irene isn't playing around. I'm a bit nervous for our friends in Hispaniola and the Bahamas...

[xironman]

Winds have turned west at arop4

Code: Select all

08    22    5:24 am          NW    27.0    35.0
08    22    5:18 am          NNW    28.0    36.9
08    22    5:12 am          NNW    26.0    35.0
08    22    5:06 am          NNW    27.0    34.0
08    22    5:00 am          NNW    28.0    35.9
08    22    4:54 am          N    26.0    35.0

[cpdaman]

Poss. Back to more of a 280 degree heading. One more hurdle for irene ss her se inflow is being disrupted now will be avoiding getting "sucked in and spit out by hispanola"