ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SunnyFla]

Windtalker1...I'm not an expert but I believe (and others please correct me if I am wrong) it is a ridge that is coming down through TN not a cold front. Also, a weakness in the Bermuda High is what is expected to turn Irene.

[clfenwi]

Northeast quadrant pass started

URNT15 KNHC 221130
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 07 20110822
112030 1941N 06518W 6967 03167 0090 +075 +066 139042 042 039 003 00
112100 1943N 06519W 6967 03166 0098 +069 //// 140042 043 037 004 01
112130 1945N 06520W 6970 03164 0093 +073 +069 137041 042 037 003 00
112200 1947N 06520W 6968 03166 0095 +072 +067 134044 045 037 001 00
112230 1949N 06521W 6967 03168 0099 +069 //// 134048 049 034 003 01
112300 1951N 06521W 6965 03172 0108 +063 //// 133045 051 033 003 05
112330 1953N 06522W 6965 03172 0096 +073 +066 134041 042 033 001 00
112400 1955N 06522W 6966 03173 0095 +074 +070 130041 042 031 001 00
112430 1957N 06523W 6962 03178 0098 +072 +070 133040 042 029 001 00
112500 1959N 06523W 6962 03179 0097 +075 +072 134043 044 029 001 03
112530 2000N 06525W 6967 03175 0097 +076 +067 135041 042 /// /// 03
112600 1959N 06527W 6973 03167 0093 +078 +072 136038 038 033 001 03
112630 1958N 06528W 6965 03174 0094 +076 +064 134038 038 031 001 00
112700 1956N 06529W 6969 03168 0094 +075 +061 132040 040 033 000 03
112730 1955N 06530W 6967 03166 0092 +075 +060 131043 046 034 001 00
112800 1954N 06532W 6966 03167 0094 +071 +063 133047 047 035 002 00
112830 1953N 06533W 6968 03163 0097 +067 //// 134048 049 037 005 01
112900 1951N 06534W 6965 03167 0100 +065 //// 136048 048 037 007 01
112930 1950N 06536W 6963 03167 0099 +064 //// 136047 048 038 008 01
113000 1949N 06537W 6967 03162 0101 +062 //// 134044 046 037 008 01

[clfenwi]

Balance of NE quadrant pass to the center

URNT15 KNHC 221140
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 08 20110822
113030 1948N 06538W 6965 03164 0097 +063 //// 128039 040 037 009 01
113100 1946N 06540W 6967 03158 0089 +069 //// 128044 045 039 007 01
113130 1945N 06541W 6967 03160 0092 +060 //// 130043 044 039 007 01
113200 1944N 06542W 6970 03158 0095 +064 //// 142046 047 042 005 01
113230 1943N 06544W 6967 03158 0088 +070 +063 143049 050 044 004 00
113300 1942N 06545W 6965 03161 0084 +072 +060 140050 050 042 004 00
113330 1940N 06546W 6969 03156 0082 +073 +059 138049 049 043 007 00
113400 1939N 06547W 6970 03155 0085 +070 +061 136050 050 044 007 00
113430 1938N 06549W 6964 03156 0084 +068 +063 140051 053 044 008 00
113500 1937N 06550W 6971 03146 0087 +063 +062 140054 055 044 010 00
113530 1936N 06551W 6966 03152 0079 +069 +059 141054 055 045 008 00
113600 1934N 06553W 6966 03151 0070 +075 +056 141056 057 045 007 00
113630 1933N 06554W 6966 03144 0060 +074 +059 141055 056 045 006 00
113700 1932N 06555W 6968 03138 //// +060 //// 138052 054 046 012 01
113730 1931N 06556W 6956 03151 //// +060 //// 134050 051 047 011 01
113800 1930N 06558W 6966 03135 0046 +077 +063 132053 055 045 008 00
113830 1928N 06559W 6973 03128 0047 +079 +055 129054 055 044 005 00
113900 1927N 06600W 6967 03133 0048 +078 +054 130060 061 039 004 00
113930 1926N 06602W 6967 03130 0052 +074 +056 131062 062 040 004 00
114000 1925N 06603W 6967 03130 0067 +060 //// 131062 063 039 009 01

URNT15 KNHC 221150
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 09 20110822
114030 1923N 06604W 6962 03134 0061 +062 //// 130064 065 040 007 01
114100 1922N 06606W 6965 03132 0060 +063 //// 132062 065 043 010 05
114130 1921N 06607W 6971 03128 0062 +061 //// 123065 067 040 013 05
114200 1920N 06608W 6961 03129 //// +052 //// 127066 067 044 015 05
114230 1918N 06610W 6974 03111 //// +054 //// 134062 068 053 021 05
114300 1917N 06611W 6974 03119 //// +055 //// 142060 062 050 017 01
114330 1916N 06612W 6962 03132 //// +059 //// 146054 060 048 010 01
114400 1915N 06613W 6973 03117 //// +063 //// 144045 046 048 008 01
114430 1914N 06615W 6962 03129 //// +060 //// 144046 046 050 013 05
114500 1913N 06616W 6968 03121 //// +062 //// 145046 047 051 011 01
114530 1911N 06617W 6971 03118 //// +071 //// 144045 046 048 009 01
114600 1910N 06618W 6967 03121 //// +071 //// 147046 049 050 007 01
114630 1909N 06620W 6963 03122 0025 +079 //// 149045 045 053 003 01
114700 1908N 06621W 6970 03113 0013 +088 +087 147045 045 053 004 00
114730 1907N 06622W 6967 03117 0020 +082 //// 148042 044 051 005 01
114800 1905N 06623W 6966 03116 0013 +087 //// 149040 040 050 004 01
114830 1904N 06625W 6970 03108 0006 +090 +087 147042 042 048 005 03
114900 1903N 06626W 6966 03111 0009 +084 //// 150043 044 048 003 01
114930 1902N 06628W 6965 03108 0000 +089 +084 152046 047 050 004 00
115000 1902N 06629W 6965 03106 9999 +087 +086 153049 049 052 005 00

URNT15 KNHC 221200
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 10 20110822
115030 1901N 06631W 6967 03099 0005 +080 //// 151049 049 054 006 01
115100 1900N 06633W 6964 03097 //// +068 //// 150055 057 054 013 05
115130 1900N 06635W 6968 03089 //// +065 //// 148050 052 057 011 01
115200 1859N 06636W 6959 03093 //// +061 //// 152057 061 059 016 05
115230 1859N 06638W 6965 03078 //// +071 //// 161057 060 062 020 05
115300 1858N 06640W 6962 03074 //// +076 //// 169056 060 069 022 01
115330 1858N 06642W 6974 03055 //// +081 //// 175048 052 068 019 05
115400 1858N 06643W 6974 03048 9931 +097 //// 167044 046 065 011 01
115430 1858N 06645W 6969 03050 //// +085 //// 168047 049 069 009 01
115500 1857N 06647W 6960 03056 9915 +102 //// 164048 049 068 010 05
115530 1857N 06649W 6969 03045 9909 +108 //// 150037 040 062 008 05
115600 1856N 06651W 6972 03037 9897 +112 //// 144031 033 056 005 05
115630 1855N 06652W 6967 03038 9891 +115 +112 143027 029 039 001 00
115700 1854N 06654W 6969 03035 9878 +126 +105 152016 019 033 001 03
115730 1853N 06655W 6966 03040 9873 +131 +099 151012 012 029 001 00
115800 1852N 06657W 6971 03034 9872 +134 +098 163010 011 023 001 03
115830 1852N 06659W 6965 03043 9877 +129 +098 166008 010 023 000 03
115900 1851N 06701W 6966 03044 9876 +134 +094 326002 007 022 001 03
115930 1851N 06703W 6967 03044 9877 +134 +094 347007 008 /// /// 03
120000 1852N 06704W 6967 03044 9876 +135 +088 357011 013 024 000 00

[UpTheCreek]

Can someone please explain to me about what is to turn Irene? If it is the 2nd front everyone is talking about, I don't know where it is because our Temps here in TN are only going up all week.
Tuesday.......Low: 62° High: 90°
Wednesday...Low: 62° High: 93°
Thursday......Low: 67° High: 95°
Friday..........Low: 69° High: 94°

Turn a fan on and help it along, windtalker. I want this thing pushed to the east of OBX!!!!

[MBryant]

What are the first circulation disrupting mountains Irene is likely to encounter? Dominican?

[NEXRAD]

Can someone please explain to me about what is to turn Irene? If it is the 2nd front everyone is talking about, I don't know where it is because our Temps here in TN are only going up all week.
Tuesday.......Low: 62° High: 90°
Wednesday...Low: 62° High: 93°
Thursday......Low: 67° High: 95°
Friday..........Low: 69° High: 94°

The forecast guidance suggests a relatively weak trough and "cold" front will enter the Great Lakes region on Wednesday before swinging eastward through the Ohio Valley and Interior Northeast on Thursday, reaching the Northeast Metros Friday morning. The front will stall out as it reaches towards Kentucky to Maryland, though, and is not a particularly vigorous boundary.

- Jay
South Florida

[NEXRAD]

What are the first circulation disrupting mountains Irene is likely to encounter? Dominican?

Yes, if the storm stays near the Dominican Republic's northern coast and follows the NHC track. There are fairly rugged mountains along the immediate coast of the North-Central Dominican Republic extending to Haiti.

- Jay
South Florida

[ObsessedMiami]

I like being in the 5 day cone so I can dodge another bullet.

Your in the 3 day cone...wake up

3 day cone extends to Bahamas only per 7 am intermediate advisory. SFL is in the 5 day. But-I hear what you are saying...

[deltadog03]

Looking at the satellite, it looks as if the eye is right in the center of the convection... which is wayyyy farther north...

HUH???

Delta, would you share your thoughts on an eventual landfall/intensity if you don't mind?

You know....I am a little torn on where this makes landfall. IMHO I think its over NFL/SE GA. I feel like the energy swinging down will be weather and push out quicker. I also think that she will "help" keep that ridge holding on long enough. Now, if she speeds up at all its gonna be CHS and points EAST. If she slows down a bit its gonna be WPB and north....

[deltadog03]

Looking at the satellite, it looks as if the eye is right in the center of the convection... which is wayyyy farther north...

HUH???

lol sorry, what i meant it can be deceiving when you look at satellite because one would think the center is in the middle of the convection but in reality it seems the eye is just offshore Puerto Rico with most of the convection to the north of it..

Oh no prollem....haha It is a bit lopsided.....

[MBryant]

What are the first circulation disrupting mountains Irene is likely to encounter? Dominican?

Yes, if the storm stays near the Dominican Republic's northern coast and follows the NHC track. There are fairly rugged mountains along the immediate coast of the North-Central Dominican Republic extending to Haiti.

- Jay
South Florida

Is there data concerning what proximity to such mountains organization changes from a funneling (or strengthening) effect to a disrupting effect?

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 221210
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 11 20110822
120030 1853N 06705W 6970 03040 9878 +135 +088 009020 024 026 000 03
120100 1855N 06707W 6966 03045 9882 +129 +090 015025 026 028 001 00
120130 1856N 06708W 6960 03056 9884 +130 +090 030027 029 041 002 00
120200 1857N 06709W 6970 03050 9891 +129 +094 039032 033 057 002 00
120230 1858N 06710W 6979 03040 9884 +138 +095 040032 033 061 005 00
120300 1900N 06712W 6957 03067 9897 +124 +107 026038 041 061 008 00
120330 1901N 06713W 6970 03055 9921 +105 //// 029041 046 060 013 01
120400 1902N 06714W 6959 03078 //// +092 //// 043050 053 060 016 01
120430 1903N 06715W 6974 03065 //// +086 //// 045046 052 058 016 05
120500 1904N 06717W 6965 03079 9943 +110 +094 042046 047 054 007 00
120530 1906N 06718W 6967 03083 9947 +110 +086 046048 050 051 005 00
120600 1907N 06719W 6970 03083 9958 +107 +079 050048 049 051 004 00
120630 1908N 06720W 6968 03093 9975 +100 +079 049048 048 050 005 00
120700 1910N 06722W 6967 03099 9983 +096 +082 050048 049 049 004 03
120730 1911N 06723W 6967 03101 9979 +104 +063 046043 043 047 003 00
120800 1912N 06724W 6966 03099 9978 +102 +057 050042 042 047 001 03
120830 1913N 06726W 6969 03099 9987 +098 +057 050042 042 047 001 00
120900 1915N 06727W 6967 03104 9989 +099 +055 049041 042 047 000 03
120930 1916N 06728W 6966 03106 9989 +099 +065 047042 043 046 001 03
121000 1917N 06730W 6966 03107 9997 +094 +072 049042 042 047 001 03

[JTE50]

Are there any folks from Puerto Rico reporting in?

[Dave]

I can work for a little while but will have to leave soon until noon...Irene's more alive than I am right now.

[NEXRAD]

What are the first circulation disrupting mountains Irene is likely to encounter? Dominican?

Yes, if the storm stays near the Dominican Republic's northern coast and follows the NHC track. There are fairly rugged mountains along the immediate coast of the North-Central Dominican Republic extending to Haiti.

- Jay
South Florida

Is there data concerning what proximity to such mountains organization changes from a funneling (or strengthening) effect to a disrupting effect?

I'm unfamiliar of any empirical study of this, but am sure there exist some. That said, I've not heard of large mountains having a strengthening/funneling effect on tropical cyclones. Typically mountains cause friction which serves to reduce surface and low level winds, disrupt the surface to upper air transport system that fuels a hurricane, and can have additional consequences.

Considering Irene likely to stay along the Northern coast of the Dominican Republic, I'd anticipate the northerly winds ahead of the system to interact with the mountain chain and initially cause increased deep convection west of Irene's center due to standard uplifting winds due to the terrain interaction. As the storm moves farther west, though, the southerly flow would encounter upslope along the Hispaniola southern coast, which could cause some drying and convective weakening for the storm.

(This is unofficial information and should not be used for decision making.)

- Jay
South Florida

[clfenwi]

URNT12 KNHC 221220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/11:59:00Z
B. 18 deg 51 min N
067 deg 00 min W
C. 700 mb 3000 m
D. 69 kt
E. 067 deg 14 nm
F. 129 deg 68 kt
G. 062 deg 55 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 8 C / 3053 m
J. 14 C / 3048 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C26
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0409A IRENE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NE QUAD 11:42:20Z

[johngaltfla]

Is there data concerning what proximity to such mountains organization changes from a funneling (or strengthening) effect to a disrupting effect?

I'm unfamiliar of any empirical study of this, but am sure there exist some. That said, I've not heard of large mountains having a strengthening/funneling effect on tropical cyclones. Typically mountains cause friction which serves to reduce surface and low level winds, disrupt the surface to upper air transport system that fuels a hurricane, and can have additional consequences.

Considering Irene likely to stay along the Northern coast of the Dominican Republic, I'd anticipate the northerly winds ahead of the system to interact with the mountain chain and initially cause increased deep convection west of Irene's center due to standard uplifting winds due to the terrain interaction. As the storm moves farther west, though, the southerly flow would encounter upslope along the Hispaniola southern coast, which could cause some drying and convective weakening for the storm.

(This is unofficial information and should not be used for decision making.)

- Jay
South Florida[/quote]

Respectfully Jay, the highest mountaintops are far south of the projected path of the storm. The majority of the DR is quite flat along the northern coast. Interaction will not be a major factor as the eye/CDO will stay over open water based on the current path projections, IMHO.

http://mappery.com/maps/Hispaniola-Topo ... mthumb.jpg

[Portastorm]

Are there any folks from Puerto Rico reporting in?

We do have a thread for this and some folks from PR have reported in.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111553&start=60

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I'll go ahead and post this since I created it. I can post images at times today, but if anyone can do it consistently go ahead. I am very busy and know I will forget to do it often. Satellite imagery is as of 7:15 AM EDT since last image was blank.

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 12:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 11:59:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°51'N 67°00'W (18.85N 67.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 69 miles (111 km) to the WNW (296°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,000m (9,843ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ENE (67°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 68kts (From the SE at ~ 78.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:42:20Z