ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Well if this trend in the modelling and motion continues, I'll definitely be breathing a little easier here in Palm Beach County, FL. Watching, but breathing easier. I was originally thinking this could be very David/1979-esque. Now it's possible Irene will be as far east of us as Floyd was in 1999 when he made his NW and N hook. We'll see.

[RL3AO]

886
URNT15 KNHC 221310
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 17 20110822
130030 1812N 06822W 6969 03162 0066 +090 +059 345029 030 021 000 00
130100 1810N 06823W 6967 03164 0068 +088 +064 347030 030 022 000 03
130130 1808N 06824W 6968 03163 0066 +091 +067 348026 027 023 000 00
130200 1806N 06825W 6967 03163 0067 +090 +067 351024 025 024 000 03
130230 1805N 06826W 6967 03163 0067 +090 +072 350021 022 024 000 03
130300 1803N 06827W 6967 03164 0071 +087 +074 347020 021 023 000 03
130330 1801N 06828W 6969 03165 0074 +086 +073 350020 021 024 000 03
130400 1800N 06828W 6967 03167 0069 +090 +067 359020 020 023 000 00
130430 1758N 06829W 6967 03164 0069 +090 +069 353020 021 023 000 00
130500 1756N 06830W 6970 03164 0070 +089 +068 352019 020 023 000 03
130530 1754N 06831W 6966 03169 0075 +086 +070 355019 019 023 001 03
130600 1753N 06832W 6966 03170 0073 +088 +074 349019 020 024 000 00
130630 1751N 06833W 6968 03165 0068 +092 +067 347019 019 023 000 00
130700 1749N 06834W 6969 03167 0072 +091 +065 348017 018 025 000 00
130730 1748N 06835W 6965 03170 0070 +092 +063 346017 018 025 001 00
130800 1746N 06836W 6969 03167 0071 +091 +062 349017 018 023 000 00
130830 1744N 06837W 6967 03170 0078 +086 +060 345016 017 023 000 03
130900 1743N 06838W 6964 03173 0076 +086 +079 337021 022 021 000 00
130930 1741N 06838W 6966 03170 0064 +098 +057 336022 023 024 000 03
131000 1739N 06839W 6957 03176 0064 +095 +056 336022 022 /// /// 03
$$
;

[HurricaneWarning92]

whats funny, although the NHC will shift their track a little to right I bet money they are still way on the left side of the models. mostly becasue they know such sharp right turns rarely happen and in august even less so. With the trough not really digging and only making a weakness the chances of a more gradual turn is way more likely. similar to what happened with frances.. all the models were sharp recurve... to carolinas and frances just kept chugging wnw. then the trough ended up lifting out even more... all I can tell everyone is not to jump all over every model shift. its not healthy.. lol

This is exactly what i was thinking, and it seems people in Florida, specially SFL, are getting too confident that this will track way to the east of us.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 17:



With some previous vortex messages plotted.

[ObsessedMiami]

whats funny, although the NHC will shift their track a little to right I bet money they are still way on the left side of the models. mostly becasue they know such sharp right turns rarely happen and in august even less so. With the trough not really digging and only making a weakness the chances of a more gradual turn is way more likely. similar to what happened with frances.. all the models were sharp recurve... to carolinas and frances just kept chugging wnw. then the trough ended up lifting out even more... all I can tell everyone is not to jump all over every model shift. its not healthy.. lol

This is exactly what i was thinking, and it seems people in Florida, specially SFL, are getting too confident that this will track way to the east of us.

What worries me is that EOC personnel here in SFL could do the same, leaving too little time if something real does develop to do anything about it.

[viberama]

All people living on the east coast need to stay vigilant and keep and eye out for changing conditions (you've packed your hurricane kit for the year correct?) Irene is still very fluid and anything can happen with her.

My personal opinion is the models are overdoing the weakness in the high pressure ridge and she will still be plenty close to Florida and points North.

[Aric Dunn]

Well if this trend in the modelling and motion continues, I'll definitely be breathing a little easier here in Palm Beach County, FL. Watching, but breathing easier. I was originally thinking this could be very David/1979-esque. Now it's possible Irene will be as far east of us as Floyd was in 1999 when he made his NW and N hook. We'll see.

you have to realize that the track even on the farthest east model is a parallel track that is only a couple hundred miles off shore SE florida. all it takes is for the hurricane to delay the turn for 6 to 12 hours and well you know the story..

the thing is.. I have never seen one hurricane turn when it was supposed to.. they always turn later than forecast. just how much is key.

[eastcoastFL]

According to the NHC the current wnw motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Based on that I am having a hard time buying the dramatic curve at the last minute. If anyone else feels this way feel free to comment.

[Mouton]

whats funny, although the NHC will shift their track a little to right I bet money they are still way on the left side of the models. mostly becasue they know such sharp right turns rarely happen and in august even less so. With the trough not really digging and only making a weakness the chances of a more gradual turn is way more likely. similar to what happened with frances.. all the models were sharp recurve... to carolinas and frances just kept chugging wnw. then the trough ended up lifting out even more... all I can tell everyone is not to jump all over every model shift. its not healthy.. lol

This is exactly what i was thinking, and it seems people in Florida, specially SFL, are getting too confident that this will track way to the east of us.

What worries me is that EOC personnel here in SFL could do the same, leaving too little time if something real does develop to do anything about it.

For the EOC personnel to do that would be a major mistake because they would be going against the official pronouncements of the national center responsible for the very predictions they would ignore...hard to believe a bureaucrat would do that. I hope your worry does not become a reality.

[Vortex]

I'm not seeing west, NW with maybe more west in my opinion.

Nice radar image, should continue to strengthen. I expect at leat a cat 3, maybe 4 when all is said and done.

[AdamFirst]

What "dramatic curve"?

I don't see anything like that.

[bahamaswx]

Deepening by the frame now, with a small warm spot corresponding to the center.

[SouthFloridawx]

If it were to affect South Florida, Hurricane watches could go up Wednesday afternoon. They would start feeling the affects Thursday. Today, tomorrow and wednesday are the only days to prepare. With the Hurricanes Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in my recent memory, the lines at the stores would be ridiculous and there will be a huge wait for gasoline. If I were living in South Florida or anywhere on the East Coast... Georgia and Southward, I would start checking my supply list and going shopping for a few things. It's going to get crazy out there. Plus you have to prepare your home as well.

Complacency has set in. Wilma in 2005 is the last Hurricane to affect our region.

I'd say get ready. I am in Sarasota and I am going to check my supplies today too.

"HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds."

Latest Discussion @ 5am says, "IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY."

[RL3AO]

198
URNT15 KNHC 221320
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 18 20110822
131030 1738N 06837W 6971 03163 0068 +091 +066 335017 019 022 003 03
131100 1738N 06835W 6963 03170 0063 +096 +062 332017 018 /// /// 03
131130 1740N 06835W 6970 03164 0070 +092 +057 343017 017 021 000 00
131200 1742N 06834W 6966 03169 0070 +090 +073 349014 015 024 001 03
131230 1743N 06834W 6969 03167 0072 +089 +071 353015 015 020 001 00
131300 1745N 06833W 6967 03167 0070 +090 +073 346016 017 021 000 00
131330 1746N 06831W 6967 03167 0067 +092 +061 347016 017 023 000 00
131400 1747N 06830W 6967 03165 0064 +096 +058 343015 015 024 000 00
131430 1749N 06829W 6966 03167 0065 +093 +068 342013 013 024 000 03
131500 1750N 06828W 6969 03165 0066 +092 +074 345014 016 023 000 00
131530 1751N 06827W 6969 03164 0070 +090 +068 351015 016 022 000 03
131600 1752N 06826W 6966 03168 0067 +092 +067 358014 014 022 000 00
131630 1754N 06824W 6967 03165 0069 +090 +066 004014 015 023 000 03
131700 1755N 06823W 6967 03164 0073 +086 +068 356017 017 023 000 00
131730 1756N 06822W 6967 03165 0069 +087 +067 351017 017 023 000 03
131800 1757N 06821W 6967 03163 0066 +090 +066 347016 017 023 000 03
131830 1759N 06820W 6966 03164 0065 +090 +065 344018 018 023 000 00
131900 1800N 06819W 6969 03159 0059 +092 +059 343020 021 023 000 03
131930 1801N 06817W 6966 03163 0060 +093 +057 342021 021 022 000 03
132000 1803N 06816W 6967 03160 0059 +095 +060 340020 021 023 000 03
$$
;

[fci]

The WV loop shows a stronger second trough dropping SE towards the SE US coast - good news for those of us hoping and praying for a recurve:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Hopefully the satellite blackout is for just one image...

We shall see about the trof....it is August...

Delta, I agree but then look at Charley. The chances of that being strong enough I have to say also, it's AUGUST and it's rare. And also thanks for your explainations. You make things easier to understand.

You can probably find an "exception" to most synoptic, climatological and logical solutions.
Charley and a strong front in August would certainly qualify as an exception as would the 1935 storm (I think that was the year) that someone pointed out yesterday that supposedly bombed out from a TD to a Cat 5 in the Florida Straits. Same with an Ike type scenario. Expectations, in my opinion; should rely on the logical solutions and not the outliers.
My $.02

[jlauderdal]

I'm not seeing west, NW with maybe more west in my opinion.




Nice radar image, should continue to strengthen. I expect at leat a cat 3, maybe 4 when all is said and done.

dont see much to hold it back, cat2-3 as it approaches the peninsula

[Mouton]

I'm not seeing west, NW with maybe more west in my opinion.

Nice radar image, should continue to strengthen. I expect at leat a cat 3, maybe 4 when all is said and done.

Is that eye opening to the ssw? Or is it a function of the poor radar right now??

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 18:

[Frank2]

Based on radar it's on a 290 track and tending towards 300, and if it continues to strengthen that will increase the right turning tendancy, especially as the trough drops SE, so while I'm still very aware of Irene it is looking better for us here in Fort Lauderdale...

Frank

[fci]

whats funny, although the NHC will shift their track a little to right I bet money they are still way on the left side of the models. mostly becasue they know such sharp right turns rarely happen and in august even less so. With the trough not really digging and only making a weakness the chances of a more gradual turn is way more likely. similar to what happened with frances.. all the models were sharp recurve... to carolinas and frances just kept chugging wnw. then the trough ended up lifting out even more... all I can tell everyone is not to jump all over every model shift. its not healthy.. lol

This is exactly what i was thinking, and it seems people in Florida, specially SFL, are getting too confident that this will track way to the east of us.

What worries me is that EOC personnel here in SFL could do the same, leaving too little time if something real does develop to do anything about it.

I understand what you are saying but what would you want the EOC personnel down here to do now?
You have a storm that each forecast shows turning further and further away.
It absolutely could continue towards us and take a Frances-type track.
But most likely it won't.
I would hate to see an overreaction by officials to this which would further enhance the "it will never come here, they are crying wolf" mentality that ensues each time people jump through hoops for nothing.
Not to mention the expense of taking action unecessarily.
No, I agree with what the EOC people are doing at this point. Monitoring the situation and getting to act only if needed.