ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon
874
URNT15 KNHC 221350
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 21 20110822
134030 1856N 06727W 6965 03048 9890 +121 +116 334025 025 030 002 03
134100 1857N 06726W 6962 03049 9870 +137 +096 338023 025 022 001 03
134130 1858N 06724W 6970 03034 9866 +137 +093 347017 019 020 000 03
134200 1858N 06722W 6963 03039 9860 +139 +090 339012 014 022 002 03
134230 1859N 06721W 6966 03034 9860 +138 +089 330003 006 025 000 03
134300 1900N 06719W 6966 03035 9862 +135 +090 157007 010 025 001 03
134330 1901N 06718W 6967 03031 9864 +132 +093 160012 015 026 001 03
134400 1902N 06716W 6966 03031 9860 +135 +089 155018 020 032 000 00
134430 1904N 06715W 6970 03027 9863 +135 +091 154023 024 043 000 03
134500 1905N 06714W 6966 03033 9866 +132 +096 153028 029 047 001 03
134530 1906N 06712W 6965 03039 9879 +124 +101 154035 038 055 002 03
134600 1908N 06711W 6974 03033 9898 +111 //// 151041 044 059 004 01
134630 1909N 06709W 6960 03056 9912 +104 //// 161054 059 060 005 01
134700 1910N 06708W 6971 03051 //// +073 //// 157065 067 061 009 01
134730 1912N 06706W 6975 03051 //// +068 //// 155066 067 062 015 01
134800 1913N 06705W 6956 03083 //// +070 //// 154061 062 062 016 05
134830 1914N 06704W 6967 03071 //// +068 //// 148069 073 062 035 05
134900 1916N 06702W 6969 03073 //// +067 //// 144065 069 063 028 01
134930 1917N 06701W 6969 03083 //// +064 //// 137059 063 062 021 05
135000 1918N 06700W 6940 03123 //// +061 //// 137056 057 057 016 01
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 221350
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 21 20110822
134030 1856N 06727W 6965 03048 9890 +121 +116 334025 025 030 002 03
134100 1857N 06726W 6962 03049 9870 +137 +096 338023 025 022 001 03
134130 1858N 06724W 6970 03034 9866 +137 +093 347017 019 020 000 03
134200 1858N 06722W 6963 03039 9860 +139 +090 339012 014 022 002 03
134230 1859N 06721W 6966 03034 9860 +138 +089 330003 006 025 000 03
134300 1900N 06719W 6966 03035 9862 +135 +090 157007 010 025 001 03
134330 1901N 06718W 6967 03031 9864 +132 +093 160012 015 026 001 03
134400 1902N 06716W 6966 03031 9860 +135 +089 155018 020 032 000 00
134430 1904N 06715W 6970 03027 9863 +135 +091 154023 024 043 000 03
134500 1905N 06714W 6966 03033 9866 +132 +096 153028 029 047 001 03
134530 1906N 06712W 6965 03039 9879 +124 +101 154035 038 055 002 03
134600 1908N 06711W 6974 03033 9898 +111 //// 151041 044 059 004 01
134630 1909N 06709W 6960 03056 9912 +104 //// 161054 059 060 005 01
134700 1910N 06708W 6971 03051 //// +073 //// 157065 067 061 009 01
134730 1912N 06706W 6975 03051 //// +068 //// 155066 067 062 015 01
134800 1913N 06705W 6956 03083 //// +070 //// 154061 062 062 016 05
134830 1914N 06704W 6967 03071 //// +068 //// 148069 073 062 035 05
134900 1916N 06702W 6969 03073 //// +067 //// 144065 069 063 028 01
134930 1917N 06701W 6969 03083 //// +064 //// 137059 063 062 021 05
135000 1918N 06700W 6940 03123 //// +061 //// 137056 057 057 016 01
$$
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- Weatherboy1
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
SouthFloridawx wrote:If it were to affect South Florida, Hurricane watches could go up Wednesday afternoon. They would start feeling the affects Thursday. Today, tomorrow and wednesday are the only days to prepare. With the Hurricanes Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in my recent memory, the lines at the stores would be ridiculous and there will be a huge wait for gasoline. If I were living in South Florida or anywhere on the East Coast... Georgia and Southward, I would start checking my supply list and going shopping for a few things. It's going to get crazy out there. Plus you have to prepare your home as well.
Complacency has set in. Wilma in 2005 is the last Hurricane to affect our region.
I'd say get ready. I am in Sarasota and I am going to check my supplies today too.
"HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds."
Latest Discussion @ 5am says, "IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY."
Well I picked up some water and gassed up the car yesterday. Gotta beat the last minute crazy shoppers! LOL. But definitely a bit more encouraged by latest model trends. We'll see if it sticks once we get the GIV data into the models tonight
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It costs a large amount of money per mile of coastline for communities to prepare for a hurricane, so EOC's are going to be careful when it comes to any watches that are issued, considering many do not have the money to spare...
Fortunately today's forecasting is better in that sense, so it helps the EOC planners, but the NHC's decision to extend the lead time for a hurricane watch by 12 hours is making it harder for the same planners to decide what to do - should they go ahead and risk spending money that they do not have for something that might not happen?
Frank
Fortunately today's forecasting is better in that sense, so it helps the EOC planners, but the NHC's decision to extend the lead time for a hurricane watch by 12 hours is making it harder for the same planners to decide what to do - should they go ahead and risk spending money that they do not have for something that might not happen?
Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Mon Aug 22, 2011 8:55 am, edited 3 times in total.
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Recon is passing through the "dry slot" as shown on radar.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
SouthFloridawx wrote:Recon is passing through the "dry slot" as shown on radar.
Looks like 986mb.
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
bahamaswx wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Recon is passing through the "dry slot" as shown on radar.
Looks like 986mb.
Yep "Extrap. Sfc. Press: 986.0 mb (~ 29.12 inHg)"
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- Pigsnibble
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Re:
Frank2 wrote:It costs a large amount of money per mile of coastline for communities to prepare for a hurricane, so EOC's are going to be careful when it comes to any watches that are issued, considering many do not have the money to spare...
Fortunately today's forecasting is better in that sense, so it helps the EOC planners, but the NHC's decision to extend the lead time for a hurricane watch by 12 hours is making it harder for the same planners to decide what to do - should they go ahead and risk spending money that they do not have for something that might not happen?
Frank
Not to mention the SFWMD staff trying to decide what to do with the control structures. The water levels in conservation areas to the west of Broward and Palm Beach are held as high as possible to maintain water supply. If this storm is expected to dump a significant amount of rainfall, they will have to open primary and secondary control structures, and release some of the dry season storage in order to maintain a safe level and avoid dike failure.
Of course if So. FL has been dry, this could be a godsend, so perhaps a mixed blessing in that case.
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486
URNT15 KNHC 221400
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 22 20110822
135030 1919N 06658W 6953 03113 //// +067 //// 133052 055 057 012 01
135100 1921N 06657W 6947 03123 9998 +083 //// 136053 055 055 004 01
135130 1922N 06656W 6952 03119 0006 +078 //// 135052 054 054 004 01
135200 1923N 06655W 6949 03127 0002 +085 //// 133049 050 052 000 01
135230 1924N 06653W 6949 03127 0003 +085 //// 133049 049 052 000 05
135300 1925N 06652W 6950 03129 0002 +088 //// 133048 049 051 000 05
135330 1927N 06651W 6950 03130 9999 +093 +080 132047 048 050 000 03
135400 1928N 06649W 6949 03134 0003 +091 +082 130048 048 051 000 03
135430 1929N 06648W 6950 03135 0008 +089 +082 133048 048 050 000 03
135500 1930N 06647W 6949 03138 0016 +085 +083 136047 047 049 001 03
135530 1932N 06646W 6949 03140 0018 +085 //// 138047 047 050 000 05
135600 1933N 06644W 6950 03140 0019 +084 //// 142047 049 047 000 05
135630 1934N 06643W 6950 03140 0030 +074 //// 146049 050 048 002 01
135700 1935N 06642W 6950 03141 //// +057 //// 147053 054 048 007 01
135730 1937N 06640W 6952 03139 //// +060 //// 145053 055 049 008 01
135800 1938N 06639W 6947 03147 //// +066 //// 144052 053 048 009 01
135830 1939N 06637W 6962 03130 //// +058 //// 132048 050 047 012 01
135900 1940N 06636W 6943 03156 //// +058 //// 132052 053 045 010 01
135930 1942N 06635W 6940 03160 //// +057 //// 133054 055 044 006 01
140000 1943N 06634W 6955 03145 0046 +072 //// 130061 061 045 008 01
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 221400
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 22 20110822
135030 1919N 06658W 6953 03113 //// +067 //// 133052 055 057 012 01
135100 1921N 06657W 6947 03123 9998 +083 //// 136053 055 055 004 01
135130 1922N 06656W 6952 03119 0006 +078 //// 135052 054 054 004 01
135200 1923N 06655W 6949 03127 0002 +085 //// 133049 050 052 000 01
135230 1924N 06653W 6949 03127 0003 +085 //// 133049 049 052 000 05
135300 1925N 06652W 6950 03129 0002 +088 //// 133048 049 051 000 05
135330 1927N 06651W 6950 03130 9999 +093 +080 132047 048 050 000 03
135400 1928N 06649W 6949 03134 0003 +091 +082 130048 048 051 000 03
135430 1929N 06648W 6950 03135 0008 +089 +082 133048 048 050 000 03
135500 1930N 06647W 6949 03138 0016 +085 +083 136047 047 049 001 03
135530 1932N 06646W 6949 03140 0018 +085 //// 138047 047 050 000 05
135600 1933N 06644W 6950 03140 0019 +084 //// 142047 049 047 000 05
135630 1934N 06643W 6950 03140 0030 +074 //// 146049 050 048 002 01
135700 1935N 06642W 6950 03141 //// +057 //// 147053 054 048 007 01
135730 1937N 06640W 6952 03139 //// +060 //// 145053 055 049 008 01
135800 1938N 06639W 6947 03147 //// +066 //// 144052 053 048 009 01
135830 1939N 06637W 6962 03130 //// +058 //// 132048 050 047 012 01
135900 1940N 06636W 6943 03156 //// +058 //// 132052 053 045 010 01
135930 1942N 06635W 6940 03160 //// +057 //// 133054 055 044 006 01
140000 1943N 06634W 6955 03145 0046 +072 //// 130061 061 045 008 01
$$
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Palm Beach EOC is meeting this morning, and, I believe, they received the call yesterday about today's meeting. They are being vigilant as the SE FL coast is still within the cone.
I picked up my water and some ice this morning...Publix was fairly empty at 7am..glad I missed any rush that might be occurring later today and tomorrow. I also filled up the gas, and will be firing up the generator making sure it is working.
I picked up my water and some ice this morning...Publix was fairly empty at 7am..glad I missed any rush that might be occurring later today and tomorrow. I also filled up the gas, and will be firing up the generator making sure it is working.
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- Bocadude85
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:This is a nightmare for planners since the angle of approach will force huge areas to be evacuated - perhaps from the Florida Keys all the way to Cape Hatteras.
I can't imagine there is going to be huge evacuations in Florida. In my opinion I am not even sure they will put up hurricane watches for Florida.. probably tropical storm watches though. Of course this is just my opinion.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Special K wrote:What is GIV data? How does that impact the models?
It samples the entire column of the lower atmosphere and gives the models more accurate data. So much upper air data is extrapolated since there are no weather balloon sites in the ocean.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
I have nothing to go on but models but it looks like us here in NC need to start getting ready, I know they are looking at Ga/SC but how many times does that happen, I want to be ready and I hope everyone else along the eastern seaboard will do the same.
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CARTERET COUNTY NC
740
URNT12 KNHC 221404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/13:42:40Z
B. 18 deg 59 min N
067 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2991 m
D. 47 kt
E. 237 deg 11 nm
F. 326 deg 46 kt
G. 237 deg 11 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 9 C / 3050 m
J. 14 C / 3053 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C26
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0409A IRENE OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 73 KT NE QUAD 13:48:30Z
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URNT12 KNHC 221404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/13:42:40Z
B. 18 deg 59 min N
067 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2991 m
D. 47 kt
E. 237 deg 11 nm
F. 326 deg 46 kt
G. 237 deg 11 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 9 C / 3050 m
J. 14 C / 3053 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C26
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0409A IRENE OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 73 KT NE QUAD 13:48:30Z
;
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 73 KT NE QUAD 13:48:30Z
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- dixiebreeze
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
22/1140 UTC 18.8N 66.9W T4.0/4.0 IRENE -- Atlantic
She's on her way.....
She's on her way.....

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