ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 221404
XXAA 72147 99192 70671 04397 99996 25000 09569 00536 ///// /////
92648 21801 13081 85382 18202 14573 70031 10401 16059 88999 77999
31313 09608 81346
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1923N06721W 1351 MBL WND 10585 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 13571 995696 WL150 09581 084 REL 1916N06714W 134643 SPG 192
3N06721W 135125 =
XXBB 72148 99192 70671 04397 00996 25000 11850 18202 22748 14004
33740 12005 44710 11602 55696 10000
21212 00996 09569 11982 10088 22953 11586 33947 12092 44935 13078
55917 13083 66907 13078 77893 13582 88885 13581 99874 13573 11850
14573 22696 16059
31313 09608 81346
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1923N06721W 1351 MBL WND 10585 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 13571 995696 WL150 09581 084 REL 1916N06714W 134643 SPG 192
3N06721W 135125 =

69kt surface

85kt MBL (using 85% reduction = 73kts)

[SunnyFla]

I think there are a lot of people in SE FL that are forgetting the NHC's warning to watch the cone and not the center line. We should have all learned that lesson from Hurricane Charley in 2004.



_________________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wider view through OB 22, with previous vortex messages included:

[RL3AO]

563
URNT15 KNHC 221410
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 23 20110822
140030 1944N 06632W 6951 03152 0051 +072 //// 130061 062 049 010 01
140100 1945N 06631W 6947 03158 0054 +067 //// 130058 060 049 008 01
140130 1946N 06630W 6946 03161 //// +057 //// 134052 054 047 014 01
140200 1948N 06629W 6953 03152 //// +049 //// 134061 061 045 007 01
140230 1949N 06627W 6947 03162 //// +054 //// 129058 061 047 008 01
140300 1950N 06626W 6948 03163 0066 +065 //// 132056 058 046 012 01
140330 1951N 06625W 6954 03158 0073 +064 //// 132059 060 046 008 01
140400 1952N 06624W 6947 03167 //// +058 //// 131056 058 046 009 01
140430 1954N 06622W 6952 03163 0073 +059 //// 133056 058 045 003 01
140500 1955N 06621W 6949 03171 0069 +073 +068 135057 057 044 002 00
140530 1956N 06620W 6950 03169 0067 +075 +069 134056 056 043 003 00
140600 1957N 06618W 6949 03172 0068 +075 +070 134055 056 043 004 00
140630 1958N 06617W 6949 03173 0070 +074 +071 135055 055 045 005 00
140700 2000N 06616W 6950 03172 0070 +075 +070 136056 056 043 006 00
140730 2001N 06615W 6950 03175 0069 +078 +069 138056 056 042 004 00
140800 2002N 06613W 6949 03178 0069 +078 +071 139056 056 041 001 00
140830 2003N 06612W 6950 03177 0074 +076 +071 141055 056 041 003 00
140900 2005N 06611W 6949 03180 0073 +078 +072 142054 054 041 002 00
140930 2006N 06609W 6950 03180 0079 +075 +072 143052 053 041 001 00
141000 2007N 06608W 6950 03182 0082 +075 +067 142050 051 038 002 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

22/1140 UTC 18.8N 66.9W T4.0/4.0 IRENE -- Atlantic

She's on her way.....

.4 N of the 5am, looks like just N of W on radar.

[hurricanefloyd5]

this is from my office from Melbourne fl.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/mlb/prese ... Brief.html

[CrazyC83]

I think there are a lot of people in SE FL that are forgetting the NHC's warning to watch the cone and not the center line. We should have all learned that lesson from Hurricane Charley in 2004.



_________________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Very true. I am sure tomorrow there will be a Hurricane Watch for the Florida peninsula.

[Bocadude85]

I think there are a lot of people in SE FL that are forgetting the NHC's warning to watch the cone and not the center line. We should have all learned that lesson from Hurricane Charley in 2004.



_________________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Very true. I am sure tomorrow there will be a Hurricane Watch for the Florida peninsula.

Do you guys really think it will be a Hurricane Watch instead of a Tropical Storm Watch?

[Frank2]

I can't imagine there is going to be huge evacuations in Florida. In my opinion I am not even sure they will put up hurricane watches for Florida.. probably tropical storm watches though. Of course this is just my opinion.

I agree - at this moment it is appearing to be more of a marine issue if it does stay to the east of Florida (stay tuned), so more likely the NHC will start with a watch in their offshore forecast and go from there...

Frank

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 23:

[fci]

I think there are a lot of people in SE FL that are forgetting the NHC's warning to watch the cone and not the center line. We should have all learned that lesson from Hurricane Charley in 2004.



_________________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Very true. I am sure tomorrow there will be a Hurricane Watch for the Florida peninsula.

Put me down in the "disagree" column.
Looking at the cluster of models on the prior page and the moving of the NHC steadily east; I DO NOT expect a Hurricane Watch, at least not in South Florida.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

I think there are a lot of people in SE FL that are forgetting the NHC's warning to watch the cone and not the center line. We should have all learned that lesson from Hurricane Charley in 2004.



_________________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Very true. I am sure tomorrow there will be a Hurricane Watch for the Florida peninsula.

Do you guys really think it will be a Hurricane Watch instead of a Tropical Storm Watch?

As of now i'd imagine a TS watch might be required in the near future but if these the recent eastward trend with the models continue i dont think we would see much other then beezy rainy weather. You typically dont see much with a cyclone passing to your east anyway.

[SouthFloridawx]

I would use common sense over forecast models when determining to be prepared for a storm.

[Frank2]

True, true - some mentioned a David scenairo, but even then in South Miami (where I lived at the time) all we had was cloudy and breezy weather - actually a pretty nice day, considering what it could have been...

Frank

[PTrackerLA]

The trough looks fairly potent on water vapor imagery. Could be why Irene is moving more northward than forecast currently.

[ObsessedMiami]

How can people on one hand put lots of stock in the models trending east and on the other hand say the models need G-IV data in order to be accurate?

[RL3AO]

266
URNT15 KNHC 221420
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 24 20110822
141030 2008N 06607W 6950 03184 0085 +074 +066 142050 050 039 001 03
141100 2010N 06605W 6950 03185 0089 +071 +066 142051 052 039 001 03
141130 2011N 06604W 6949 03185 0090 +070 +065 143050 051 040 000 00
141200 2012N 06603W 6949 03185 0087 +073 +060 144052 052 040 000 03
141230 2013N 06601W 6949 03188 0089 +074 +057 144051 051 039 001 03
141300 2015N 06600W 6949 03188 0089 +075 +054 145050 050 040 001 00
141330 2016N 06558W 6950 03190 0092 +075 +053 145050 050 039 000 03
141400 2017N 06557W 6947 03194 0095 +073 +056 145047 048 /// /// 03
141430 2019N 06558W 6950 03191 0095 +075 +048 140044 044 /// /// 03
141500 2019N 06600W 6950 03193 0095 +075 +047 140044 045 038 001 03
141530 2019N 06602W 6949 03191 0095 +074 +048 139044 045 040 000 03
141600 2019N 06604W 6949 03191 0094 +074 +053 141046 046 041 000 00
141630 2019N 06606W 6951 03189 0100 +069 +057 141045 046 042 000 03
141700 2019N 06609W 6947 03191 0097 +064 //// 140047 048 041 001 01
141730 2019N 06611W 6950 03186 0099 +058 //// 136044 046 042 002 01
141800 2019N 06613W 6950 03185 0088 +072 +071 135042 042 042 001 00
141830 2019N 06615W 6946 03190 0087 +074 +068 131041 042 042 000 03
141900 2019N 06617W 6950 03186 0087 +075 +066 129044 045 043 000 03
141930 2020N 06619W 6950 03186 0092 +070 +069 126043 044 044 000 03
142000 2020N 06622W 6953 03183 0092 +070 +066 124043 043 044 000 00
$$
;

[SFLcane]

The trough looks fairly potent on water vapor imagery. Could be why Irene is moving more northward than forecast currently.

As someone else previously mentioned the general pattern has changed all that much this season.

[fci]

How can people on one hand put lots of stock in the models trending east and on the other hand say the models need G-IV data in order to be accurate?

Verification with real data

[Bocadude85]

lol gotta love the accuweather forecast for my area on thursday.

Day

ESE at 43 mph
Gusts: 100 mph
Hurricane Irene could affect the weather; cloudy
Max UV Index: 4 (moderate)
Thunderstorm Probability: 60%
Amount of Precipitation: 1.15 in
Amount of Rain: 1.15 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 6 hrs
Hours of Rain: 6 hrs