ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ObsessedMiami]

With all due respect to those who claim to know with a high degree of certainty where this storm will end up in 5 days, until it passes my latitude, I am giving it the respect it deserves. I suggest everyone from the Keys to North Carolina do so also.


Just my 2 cents.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Eyewall Replacement Cycle perhaps? the first signs of intensification as it's 'spitted' out all the dry air from yesterday and now has clear-sailing ahead.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

With all due respect to those who claim to know with a high degree of certainty where this storm will end up in 5 days, until it passes my latitude, I am giving it the respect it deserves. I suggest everyone from the Keys to North Carolina do so also.


Just my 2 cents.

This is the correct attitude for this situation.

[theweatherwatch]

Eyewall Replacement Cycle perhaps? the first signs of intensification as it's 'spitted' out all the dry air from yesterday and now has clear-sailing ahead.

It's never had a full complete eyewall as far as I know so why would it need to go through a ERC?

[Chacor]

I'm still puzzled as to the lack of a TS warning for the northeastern Cuban coast.

[S2K1]

consolidation

[Dave]

091
URNT15 KNHC 221700
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 40 20110822
165030 1941N 06729W 6969 03106 0006 +086 //// 134047 049 049 002 01
165100 1939N 06730W 6966 03107 9991 +095 +089 131048 050 050 001 03
165130 1938N 06731W 6969 03101 9992 +093 +084 131046 047 048 001 03
165200 1937N 06733W 6960 03110 9990 +092 +087 133046 048 051 002 00
165230 1936N 06734W 6970 03093 9986 +088 //// 132050 051 051 005 01
165300 1934N 06735W 6969 03093 //// +077 //// 129051 052 054 008 01
165330 1933N 06736W 6970 03090 //// +078 //// 132054 055 055 013 01
165400 1932N 06737W 6962 03096 //// +079 //// 132053 054 056 017 01
165430 1930N 06738W 6962 03091 9975 +091 //// 128052 053 053 015 05
165500 1929N 06740W 6973 03077 9968 +094 //// 129050 052 047 003 01
165530 1928N 06741W 6967 03080 9963 +095 //// 123045 046 050 003 01
165600 1926N 06742W 6959 03089 //// +083 //// 130047 048 053 009 01
165630 1925N 06743W 6970 03068 //// +087 //// 131047 049 056 012 01
165700 1924N 06744W 6966 03071 //// +091 //// 135047 050 057 010 01
165730 1922N 06745W 6968 03062 //// +081 //// 126043 046 062 016 01
165800 1921N 06746W 6969 03052 //// +077 //// 129041 048 062 016 01
165830 1919N 06748W 6967 03052 //// +087 //// 128035 040 061 013 01
165900 1918N 06749W 6975 03035 9901 +105 //// 122027 028 058 012 01
165930 1917N 06750W 6964 03048 9882 +127 +116 134021 022 053 002 03
170000 1915N 06751W 6972 03037 9874 +131 +115 149017 018 039 000 03
$$
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[tolakram]

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

Speed it up for full effect.

[Chacor]

Eyewall Replacement Cycle perhaps? the first signs of intensification as it's 'spitted' out all the dry air from yesterday and now has clear-sailing ahead.

It's never had a full complete eyewall as far as I know so why would it need to go through a ERC?

I don't ever recall seeing an EWRC in a Cat 1. Most happen in greatly intense Cat 4s.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

With latest NHC track included.

[SouthFLTropics]

If anything I think Irene looks a bit ragged at the moment. She could possibly be feeling the affects of her southern inflow being blocked by the mountains of Hispaniola. In addition the motion appears more 275ish. This could have big implications down the road. Small changes now can lead to major issues later. Would love to hear additional comments...

SFT

[GCANE]

Colder cloud tops are firing very close to the center.

She is slowing intensifying.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 220845.jpg

[Jevo]

[quote="UpTheCreek]Well, in his defense, he knows way more than you or I.[/quote]

we can argue the merits of JBs intelligence at a later date.. As with everything for official information please turn to the professionals at the NHC

[ROCK]

never really had an intense eye wall if it had one at all....Cat 4 in SC is going destroy a lot of things...including lives lost. People need to prepare to leave and get inland.

[theweatherwatch]

Eyewall Replacement Cycle perhaps? the first signs of intensification as it's 'spitted' out all the dry air from yesterday and now has clear-sailing ahead.

It's never had a full complete eyewall as far as I know so why would it need to go through a ERC?

I don't ever recall seeing an EWRC in a Cat 1. Most happen in greatly intense Cat 4s.

yeah most often a Hurricane doesn't have it's first ERC until it reaches cat 2 or 3.

[GCANE]

Rain rate has been moderate and steady all morning; a sign of slow, steady intensification.

IMHO, she is not going to really get cranking for at least 24 hrs.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/nexsat/thumbs/region_size/CONUS/focus_regions/NW_Atlantic/Haiti/precip/geo_blended/20110822.1655.goes13.rain.nexsat_Haiti.0.jpg

[fci]

With all due respect to those who claim to know with a high degree of certainty where this storm will end up in 5 days, until it passes my latitude, I am giving it the respect it deserves. I suggest everyone from the Keys to North Carolina do so also.


Just my 2 cents.

You are totally correct and your post makes the most sense of all.
Until it passes your latitude (and I know there are exceptions , Betsy comes to mind); always pay attention just to be sure.
We can all gas bag all we want (and lord knows that I do) but until you have proof, we are all just guessing.
We should all have a hurricane plan anyway so all we need to do is pay attention.
Thank you Mr Obsessed!

[Dave]

319
URNT15 KNHC 221710
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 41 20110822
170030 1914N 06752W 6964 03043 9868 +134 +112 151012 013 037 000 03
170100 1913N 06754W 6971 03033 9857 +143 +107 149010 012 031 001 03
170130 1912N 06755W 6964 03043 9850 +150 +104 121005 007 022 003 03
170200 1912N 06755W 6964 03043 9853 +148 +101 041005 008 021 003 00
170230 1910N 06759W 6968 03038 9851 +151 +096 027013 014 023 005 03
170300 1909N 06800W 6963 03046 9856 +150 +093 017018 019 012 006 03
170330 1907N 06801W 6970 03040 9863 +146 +095 348013 016 024 001 03
170400 1905N 06800W 6966 03044 9867 +139 +108 282023 029 026 000 00
170430 1903N 06759W 6971 03037 9869 +139 +103 262032 035 030 000 00
170500 1902N 06758W 6961 03052 9861 +149 +088 267034 036 038 001 00
170530 1900N 06757W 6973 03041 9869 +147 +073 263039 041 045 000 03
170600 1858N 06756W 6969 03052 9883 +142 +068 254041 042 049 001 03
170630 1857N 06755W 6966 03062 9896 +136 +068 249041 042 049 001 03
170700 1855N 06754W 6963 03072 9909 +130 +073 251043 045 047 000 03
170730 1854N 06753W 6966 03076 9937 +110 +094 253050 051 047 001 03
170800 1852N 06753W 6966 03080 9949 +106 +094 252051 051 047 000 03
170830 1850N 06752W 6966 03086 9950 +111 +081 250048 050 047 001 03
170900 1849N 06751W 6964 03093 9959 +107 +094 248045 047 047 000 03
170930 1847N 06750W 6970 03090 9962 +109 +087 245042 044 046 000 03
171000 1846N 06749W 6969 03095 9973 +103 +087 243042 044 048 003 00
$$
;

[otowntiger]

Eyewall Replacement Cycle perhaps? the first signs of intensification as it's 'spitted' out all the dry air from yesterday and now has clear-sailing ahead.

She never really had an eyewall to replace. THat usually just happens in much more intense hurricanes. It is interesting to note the apparent predominant westward motion as well as its somewhat more 'ragged' now than earlier. I do think this is something worth noting and could change things, but to what degree is yet to be determined.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 221710
XXAA 72177 99193 70678 04397 99993 25403 11066 00558 ///// /////
92629 23216 12063 85365 19409 13062 70025 13601 12536 88999 77999
31313 09608 81658
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 18
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1936N06785W 1702 MBL WND 11569 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 12556 993697 WL150 11069 083 REL 1932N06779W 165829 SPG 193
6N06785W 170220 =
XXBB 72178 99193 70678 04397 00993 25403 11850 19409 22697 13400
21212 00993 11066 11989 11562 22986 10571 33981 11069 44973 11076
55967 11075 66952 11565 77910 12059 88850 13062 99800 14053 11697
12535
31313 09608 81658
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 18
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1936N06785W 1702 MBL WND 11569 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 12556 993697 WL150 11069 083 REL 1932N06779W 165829 SPG 193
6N06785W 170220 =
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