ATL: IRENE - Models

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AdamFirst
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3761 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:34 pm

18z HWRF rolling.
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#3762 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:35 pm

hr 168 right over my house
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#3763 Postby michaelder » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:37 pm

Re: NOAA/Gulfstream mission data
Confused-is data from above included in part, in whole or not at all in 18Z GFS and HWRF model runs?
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#3764 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:38 pm

18z HWRF.... 18hrs


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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3765 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:40 pm

LOL HWRF wasted no time RI'ing Irene this run!
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Re:

#3766 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:41 pm

michaelder wrote:Re: NOAA/Gulfstream mission data
Confused-is data from above included in part, in whole or not at all in 18Z GFS and HWRF model runs?


The upper air sounding from the 15 weather stations requested by NHC is in this model packaging.

The Gulfstream data will be incorporated on either 0z or 6z.
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#3767 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:42 pm

24hrs....

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#3768 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:44 pm

30hrs....

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#3769 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:47 pm

36hrs...

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3770 Postby MWatkins » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:47 pm

I believe about 1/3 of the drops made it into the 18Z gfs (and as a result the HWRF).

All of the drops will be in the 0Z guidance.

MW
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Re: Re:

#3771 Postby michaelder » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:48 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
michaelder wrote:Re: NOAA/Gulfstream mission data
Confused-is data from above included in part, in whole or not at all in 18Z GFS and HWRF model runs?


The upper air sounding from the 15 weather stations requested by NHC is in this model packaging.

The Gulfstream data will be incorporated on either 0z or 6z.


Thanks. So we have upper air soundings from US land stations but nothing from over ocean until Gulfstream data is added to 0Z or 6Z runs.
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#3772 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:48 pm

Same as previous run so far track wise, but a little faster.
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#3773 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:48 pm

Comparison of last few runs of the operational (non-interpolated) GFS, with the latest (18Z) shifted slightly west:
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#3774 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:51 pm

42hrs... little bit South of the previous run

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Last edited by chris_fit on Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3775 Postby michaelder » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:52 pm

MWatkins wrote:I believe about 1/3 of the drops made it into the 18Z gfs (and as a result the HWRF).

All of the drops will be in the 0Z guidance.

MW


Thanks for the clarification. Looking at Atlantic as I write this. Have bad memories of Francis and Jeanne in 2004; both of which made landfall on Hutchinson Island!
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#3776 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:54 pm

48hrs...

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Re:

#3777 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:55 pm

michaelder wrote:Re: NOAA/Gulfstream mission data
Confused-is data from above included in part, in whole or not at all in 18Z GFS and HWRF model runs?


16 dropsondes got into the 18Z GFS run (which in turn, provides the background for the 18Z GFDL and HWRF runs). I reckon that to be somewhere between 1/4 and 1/3 of the dropsondes to be dropped by the WC-130 and Gulfstream IV. Balance should be in the 00Z runs.

(Source: 18Z GFS data dump)

I'll revise that upwards to 30-40% as it appears the WC-130 dropped a total of 20. G-IV was scheduled to drop 30, giving us a total of 50.
Last edited by clfenwi on Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3778 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:59 pm

54 hrs....

Good clip South of last run....



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For reference, here is the 12Z...

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3779 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:01 pm

18z HWRF further south and west so far. Heading toward Andros Island.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/18zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2hwrfLoop.html
Last edited by ronjon on Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#3780 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:01 pm

chris_fit wrote:54 hrs....

Good clip South of last run....



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For reference, here is the 12Z...

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and almost a cat. 4

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