ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[UpTheCreek]

To our NC/SC friends we salute you Be safe and Be prepared.

Thanks, Mike!

[Dave]

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 222321
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 08 20110822
231100 1900N 06822W 8430 01509 //// +178 //// 230031 032 033 000 05
231130 1901N 06823W 8432 01506 //// +180 //// 234032 032 034 000 01
231200 1902N 06824W 8429 01507 //// +183 //// 236033 034 035 001 01
231230 1903N 06825W 8432 01503 //// +177 //// 238035 036 035 000 05
231300 1904N 06826W 8429 01504 //// +177 //// 242037 038 037 001 05
231330 1906N 06827W 8432 01498 //// +178 //// 245037 038 040 001 05
231400 1907N 06828W 8426 01501 //// +174 //// 240038 040 040 004 01
231430 1908N 06829W 8423 01500 //// +163 //// 241039 042 039 007 05
231500 1910N 06830W 8433 01489 //// +175 //// 238039 039 034 003 05
231530 1911N 06830W 8429 01491 //// +182 //// 242041 042 035 000 01
231600 1913N 06831W 8429 01489 //// +193 //// 243042 043 034 000 05
231630 1914N 06832W 8425 01487 //// +203 //// 248038 039 034 000 01
231700 1916N 06833W 8427 01481 //// +199 //// 252040 041 034 000 05
231730 1917N 06833W 8429 01475 //// +196 //// 255039 040 031 000 01
231800 1919N 06834W 8428 01470 //// +177 //// 250039 040 030 000 05
231830 1920N 06834W 8430 01460 //// +176 //// 244035 036 028 000 05
231900 1922N 06835W 8429 01459 //// +177 //// 242034 035 031 001 01
231930 1924N 06835W 8435 01447 //// +178 //// 242035 035 034 001 01
232000 1925N 06836W 8430 01447 //// +181 //// 245038 040 036 000 05
232030 1927N 06837W 8433 01433 //// +196 //// 251043 045 038 000 05

[Dave]

[SouthFLTropics]

From Denis Phillips facebook:

"Hey guys...new model data continues to come in. It's ALL to the East for now. I'm telling you, this track will shift even MORE East at 11 and I wouldn't be surprised if it only brushes the outer banks of NC. Still could be a big event for New England. "

Apparently he isn't looking at the newest GFS and HWRF...With the new G-IV and balloon data in them.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 222331
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 09 20110822
232100 1928N 06837W 8419 01435 //// +204 //// 250048 049 041 000 05
232130 1930N 06838W 8425 01416 //// +211 //// 246054 057 041 001 05
232200 1931N 06838W 8426 01402 //// +223 //// 246055 057 042 000 05
232230 1933N 06839W 8436 01379 //// +238 //// 249050 055 036 000 05
232300 1934N 06839W 8433 01371 //// +228 //// 268033 037 034 000 05
232330 1936N 06840W 8429 01361 //// +218 //// 265021 025 023 000 05
232400 1938N 06840W 8434 01348 //// +216 //// 275011 015 /// /// 05
232430 1939N 06840W 8425 01356 //// +202 //// 333005 006 008 000 05
232500 1941N 06839W 8426 01352 //// +200 //// 037003 003 007 000 05
232530 1942N 06839W 8432 01344 //// +209 //// 088006 008 010 000 05
232600 1944N 06838W 8429 01346 //// +214 //// 100013 016 022 001 05
232630 1946N 06838W 8425 01353 //// +207 //// 099023 025 /// /// 05
232700 1947N 06839W 8434 01347 //// +210 //// 093029 031 031 000 05
232730 1948N 06840W 8428 01357 //// +199 //// 091030 031 028 001 05
232800 1950N 06842W 8430 01360 //// +193 //// 081030 032 032 000 05
232830 1950N 06842W 8430 01360 //// +196 //// 081036 039 030 000 05
232900 1952N 06844W 8428 01370 //// +190 //// 079044 048 052 005 05
232930 1953N 06846W 8457 01347 //// +190 //// 074064 068 091 005 05
233000 1955N 06847W 8407 01418 //// +169 //// 070088 106 081 005 01
233030 1956N 06849W 8435 01402 //// +150 //// 059099 105 075 033 05
$$

[Scorpion]

Wow

233000 1955N 06847W 8407 01418 //// +169 //// 070088 106 081 005 01
233030 1956N 06849W 8435 01402 //// +150 //// 059099 105 075 033 05

[Dave]

[Cainer]

233000 1955N 06847W 8407 01418 //// +169 //// 070088 106 081 005 01
233030 1956N 06849W 8435 01402 //// +150 //// 059099 105 075 033 05

Flight level winds of 106 knots? Could that be right? I saw a SMRF of 91 knots as well... Seems way too high to me...

[CrazyC83]

Those data support an 85 kt intensity. Special advisory around 8 probably. 91 kt is flagged but the 106 kt FL converts to 85 kt surface.

[CronkPSU]

if the GFDL and Euro trend west and these intensities are verified....the 11 PM discussion sure will be fun!

[Scorpion]

Those data support an 85 kt intensity. Special advisory around 8 probably. 91 kt is flagged but the 106 kt FL converts to 85 kt surface.

Aren't they flying at 700?

[CrazyC83]

Intensity looks to be up to 85 kt now based on Recon data.

[CrazyC83]

Those data support an 85 kt intensity. Special advisory around 8 probably. 91 kt is flagged but the 106 kt FL converts to 85 kt surface.

Aren't they flying at 700?

Nope 850.

[Cainer]

If this is only the northwestern quadrant, I wonder what they'll find in the northeast. That's generally where the strongest winds are, right?

[CrazyC83]

If this is only the northwestern quadrant, I wonder what they'll find in the northeast. That's generally where the strongest winds are, right?

NW will be strongest since it is moving more west than north.

[MWatkins]

From Denis Phillips facebook:

"Hey guys...new model data continues to come in. It's ALL to the East for now. I'm telling you, this track will shift even MORE East at 11 and I wouldn't be surprised if it only brushes the outer banks of NC. Still could be a big event for New England. "

Should I know who Denis Phillips is? If he's a Tampa met then, yeah, it's all to the east of Tampa.

Plus, sounds like an opinion mixed in.

That's really what bothers me...people say "models" and give their own personal opinion in the same breath and you have to know this stuff to untangle the two. No 18Z model I've seen shows Irene missing NC/SC/GA....

MW

[Cainer]

If this is only the northwestern quadrant, I wonder what they'll find in the northeast. That's generally where the strongest winds are, right?

NW will be strongest since it is moving more west than north.

Ah I see. Thanks for the clarification. Too bad the pressure sensor on the plane is on the fritz, just have to wait for the dropsondes I guess.

[CrazyC83]

If this is only the northwestern quadrant, I wonder what they'll find in the northeast. That's generally where the strongest winds are, right?

NW will be strongest since it is moving more west than north.

Ah I see. Thanks for the clarification. Too bad the pressure sensor on the plane is on the fritz, just have to wait for the dropsondes I guess.

Yep but with the wind change, I would GUESS it is around 980mb.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 222335
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/23:25:00Z
B. 19 deg 41 min N
068 deg 39 min W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. 41 kt
E. 145 deg 88 nm
F. 240 deg 56 kt
G. 171 deg 10 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 18 C / 1521 m
J. 23 C / 1517 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. OPEN SE-SW
M. E31/30/24
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 23:21:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 175 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;