
ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
According to How Close Can It Get from Storm Caribe, the closest Irene comes to Jupiter Inlet on the forecasted track is 116.1 miles!!!
That would not warrant a Hurricane Watch or Warning.[/quote]
It would appear my math is a little off
That would not warrant a Hurricane Watch or Warning.[/quote]
It would appear my math is a little off

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000
URNT15 KNHC 230331
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 33 20110823
032100 1929N 06759W 6961 03157 //// +084 //// 156034 036 052 025 01
032130 1931N 06800W 6968 03152 //// +081 //// 166040 043 052 016 01
032200 1934N 06800W 6968 03150 //// +074 //// 172043 044 050 019 01
032230 1936N 06800W 6979 03139 //// +075 //// 179046 049 045 013 05
032300 1937N 06802W 6970 03150 //// +077 //// 183038 040 044 012 05
032330 1938N 06803W 6965 03153 //// +080 //// 175040 042 043 011 01
032400 1939N 06805W 6975 03143 //// +088 //// 172042 046 039 003 05
032430 1941N 06807W 6963 03159 //// +086 //// 170043 043 040 004 05
032500 1943N 06807W 6965 03155 //// +088 //// 171046 047 040 004 05
032530 1945N 06807W 6961 03158 //// +089 //// 169048 049 041 005 01
032600 1947N 06808W 6971 03147 //// +091 //// 161047 048 040 001 05
032630 1949N 06808W 6966 03151 //// +094 //// 165047 048 039 000 05
032700 1951N 06808W 6969 03149 //// +094 //// 165049 050 /// /// 05
032730 1954N 06809W 6967 03149 //// +091 //// 165052 052 /// /// 05
032800 1956N 06809W 6964 03151 //// +090 //// 163055 057 /// /// 05
032830 1958N 06809W 6969 03144 //// +090 //// 160059 061 /// /// 05
032900 2000N 06809W 6967 03144 //// +094 //// 163058 059 /// /// 05
032930 2003N 06809W 6968 03144 //// +092 //// 165056 057 /// /// 05
033000 2005N 06809W 6967 03142 //// +090 //// 168056 057 /// /// 05
033030 2007N 06809W 6970 03148 //// +090 //// 171056 057 /// /// 05
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 230331
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 33 20110823
032100 1929N 06759W 6961 03157 //// +084 //// 156034 036 052 025 01
032130 1931N 06800W 6968 03152 //// +081 //// 166040 043 052 016 01
032200 1934N 06800W 6968 03150 //// +074 //// 172043 044 050 019 01
032230 1936N 06800W 6979 03139 //// +075 //// 179046 049 045 013 05
032300 1937N 06802W 6970 03150 //// +077 //// 183038 040 044 012 05
032330 1938N 06803W 6965 03153 //// +080 //// 175040 042 043 011 01
032400 1939N 06805W 6975 03143 //// +088 //// 172042 046 039 003 05
032430 1941N 06807W 6963 03159 //// +086 //// 170043 043 040 004 05
032500 1943N 06807W 6965 03155 //// +088 //// 171046 047 040 004 05
032530 1945N 06807W 6961 03158 //// +089 //// 169048 049 041 005 01
032600 1947N 06808W 6971 03147 //// +091 //// 161047 048 040 001 05
032630 1949N 06808W 6966 03151 //// +094 //// 165047 048 039 000 05
032700 1951N 06808W 6969 03149 //// +094 //// 165049 050 /// /// 05
032730 1954N 06809W 6967 03149 //// +091 //// 165052 052 /// /// 05
032800 1956N 06809W 6964 03151 //// +090 //// 163055 057 /// /// 05
032830 1958N 06809W 6969 03144 //// +090 //// 160059 061 /// /// 05
032900 2000N 06809W 6967 03144 //// +094 //// 163058 059 /// /// 05
032930 2003N 06809W 6968 03144 //// +092 //// 165056 057 /// /// 05
033000 2005N 06809W 6967 03142 //// +090 //// 168056 057 /// /// 05
033030 2007N 06809W 6970 03148 //// +090 //// 171056 057 /// /// 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
fci wrote:jpigott wrote:
According to How Close Can It Get from Storm Caribe, the closest Irene comes to Jupiter Inlet on the forecasted track is 116.1 miles!!!
That would not warrant a Hurricane Watch or Warning.
Thats assuming a perfect track forecast... while I do not think a hurricane watch will be issued I wouldnt completly rule it out.. it wouldnt take muck of a west wobble to bring Irene much closer.. and the folks at the NHC are going to have to weigh the risks.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
jpigott wrote:According to How Close Can It Get from Storm Caribe, the closest Irene comes to Jupiter Inlet on the forecasted track is 116.1 miles!!!
That would not warrant a Hurricane Watch or Warning.
It would appear my math is a little off

Forecast wind radii for Irene would have TS force winds onshore FL Thursday afternoon with Hurricane force just offshore..

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon Discussion
Planned dropsonde releases for the G-IV surveillance mission that launches at 0530Z (1:30 AM EDT). The unnumbered dots are ground stations that release weather balloons that collect upper-air data as well.

Source: NOAA HRD blog

Source: NOAA HRD blog
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
jpigott wrote:According to How Close Can It Get from Storm Caribe, the closest Irene comes to Jupiter Inlet on the forecasted track is 116.1 miles!!!
That would not warrant a Hurricane Watch or Warning.
It would appear my math is a little off

Oh, that's cool.

The How Close Can It Get is an awesome tool. Here is the link:
http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm
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000
URNT15 KNHC 230341
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 34 20110823
033100 2009N 06809W 6958 03156 //// +080 //// 172054 056 /// /// 05
033130 2011N 06808W 6976 03131 //// +085 //// 175061 063 /// /// 05
033200 2014N 06808W 6966 03134 //// +075 //// 171065 066 /// /// 05
033230 2016N 06807W 6967 03140 //// +075 //// 166063 065 /// /// 05
033300 2018N 06807W 6974 03130 //// +077 //// 161064 067 /// /// 05
033330 2020N 06807W 6962 03148 //// +072 //// 156068 071 /// /// 05
033400 2023N 06807W 6962 03141 //// +070 //// 151072 076 /// /// 05
033430 2025N 06806W 6966 03145 //// +068 //// 147072 074 /// /// 05
033500 2027N 06806W 6972 03139 //// +067 //// 140070 071 /// /// 05
033530 2029N 06806W 6972 03139 //// +060 //// 132071 072 /// /// 05
033600 2031N 06805W 6967 03149 //// +061 //// 131068 069 /// /// 05
033630 2033N 06805W 6967 03150 //// +067 //// 130068 069 /// /// 05
033700 2035N 06805W 6973 03145 //// +070 //// 130067 068 /// /// 05
033730 2037N 06805W 6965 03151 //// +075 //// 132067 068 /// /// 05
033800 2039N 06804W 6974 03143 //// +069 //// 131066 067 /// /// 05
033830 2041N 06805W 6961 03162 //// +073 //// 131066 067 /// /// 05
033900 2044N 06805W 6967 03154 //// +075 //// 126066 066 /// /// 05
033930 2046N 06805W 6967 03156 //// +074 //// 126063 066 /// /// 05
034000 2048N 06805W 6965 03160 //// +080 //// 125062 062 /// /// 05
034030 2050N 06805W 6968 03155 //// +072 //// 126062 062 /// /// 05
$$
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Wind field expanding.
URNT15 KNHC 230341
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 34 20110823
033100 2009N 06809W 6958 03156 //// +080 //// 172054 056 /// /// 05
033130 2011N 06808W 6976 03131 //// +085 //// 175061 063 /// /// 05
033200 2014N 06808W 6966 03134 //// +075 //// 171065 066 /// /// 05
033230 2016N 06807W 6967 03140 //// +075 //// 166063 065 /// /// 05
033300 2018N 06807W 6974 03130 //// +077 //// 161064 067 /// /// 05
033330 2020N 06807W 6962 03148 //// +072 //// 156068 071 /// /// 05
033400 2023N 06807W 6962 03141 //// +070 //// 151072 076 /// /// 05
033430 2025N 06806W 6966 03145 //// +068 //// 147072 074 /// /// 05
033500 2027N 06806W 6972 03139 //// +067 //// 140070 071 /// /// 05
033530 2029N 06806W 6972 03139 //// +060 //// 132071 072 /// /// 05
033600 2031N 06805W 6967 03149 //// +061 //// 131068 069 /// /// 05
033630 2033N 06805W 6967 03150 //// +067 //// 130068 069 /// /// 05
033700 2035N 06805W 6973 03145 //// +070 //// 130067 068 /// /// 05
033730 2037N 06805W 6965 03151 //// +075 //// 132067 068 /// /// 05
033800 2039N 06804W 6974 03143 //// +069 //// 131066 067 /// /// 05
033830 2041N 06805W 6961 03162 //// +073 //// 131066 067 /// /// 05
033900 2044N 06805W 6967 03154 //// +075 //// 126066 066 /// /// 05
033930 2046N 06805W 6967 03156 //// +074 //// 126063 066 /// /// 05
034000 2048N 06805W 6965 03160 //// +080 //// 125062 062 /// /// 05
034030 2050N 06805W 6968 03155 //// +072 //// 126062 062 /// /// 05
$$
;
Wind field expanding.
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Re:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Remember the storm watches and warnings are based on the cone, not the forecast point.
Not sure about that cause if that were true, Tampa/Apalachicola needs a watch too. West side of the cone+ West extent of wind radii would cover parts of the Gulf. If Miami saw a landfall, Naples would get Storm force winds
Last edited by bamajammer4eva on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Remember the storm watches and warnings are based on the cone, not the forecast point.
That is a myth. Watches and warning are decided by the track forecast and wind radii forecast.
All the cone is in the 67th percentile of all forecast errors over the past 5 years.
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000
URNT15 KNHC 230351
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 35 20110823
034100 2052N 06805W 6967 03158 //// +075 //// 125060 061 /// /// 05
034130 2054N 06805W 6968 03160 //// +078 //// 122059 059 /// /// 05
034200 2056N 06806W 6965 03166 //// +079 //// 121058 058 /// /// 05
034230 2058N 06806W 6966 03164 //// +079 //// 121058 058 /// /// 05
034300 2100N 06806W 6971 03159 //// +079 //// 119056 057 /// /// 05
034330 2102N 06806W 6966 03166 //// +080 //// 120057 057 /// /// 05
034400 2104N 06806W 6967 03169 //// +080 //// 120056 057 /// /// 05
034430 2106N 06806W 6967 03171 //// +080 //// 118054 055 /// /// 05
034500 2108N 06807W 6967 03170 //// +080 //// 119054 055 /// /// 05
034530 2110N 06807W 6965 03177 //// +077 //// 116055 056 /// /// 05
034600 2110N 06809W 6966 03178 //// +080 //// 115053 054 /// /// 05
034630 2109N 06811W 6970 03166 //// +079 //// 116050 051 /// /// 05
034700 2108N 06812W 6966 03170 //// +078 //// 114050 052 /// /// 05
034730 2106N 06813W 6967 03167 //// +077 //// 112052 053 /// /// 05
034800 2105N 06815W 6968 03164 //// +080 //// 113051 052 /// /// 05
034830 2103N 06816W 6967 03163 //// +080 //// 117054 055 /// /// 05
034900 2102N 06817W 6969 03160 //// +076 //// 116055 056 /// /// 05
034930 2101N 06819W 6967 03161 //// +071 //// 116055 056 /// /// 05
035000 2059N 06820W 6969 03158 //// +070 //// 118056 056 /// /// 05
035030 2058N 06822W 6970 03154 //// +070 //// 119058 059 /// /// 05
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 230351
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 35 20110823
034100 2052N 06805W 6967 03158 //// +075 //// 125060 061 /// /// 05
034130 2054N 06805W 6968 03160 //// +078 //// 122059 059 /// /// 05
034200 2056N 06806W 6965 03166 //// +079 //// 121058 058 /// /// 05
034230 2058N 06806W 6966 03164 //// +079 //// 121058 058 /// /// 05
034300 2100N 06806W 6971 03159 //// +079 //// 119056 057 /// /// 05
034330 2102N 06806W 6966 03166 //// +080 //// 120057 057 /// /// 05
034400 2104N 06806W 6967 03169 //// +080 //// 120056 057 /// /// 05
034430 2106N 06806W 6967 03171 //// +080 //// 118054 055 /// /// 05
034500 2108N 06807W 6967 03170 //// +080 //// 119054 055 /// /// 05
034530 2110N 06807W 6965 03177 //// +077 //// 116055 056 /// /// 05
034600 2110N 06809W 6966 03178 //// +080 //// 115053 054 /// /// 05
034630 2109N 06811W 6970 03166 //// +079 //// 116050 051 /// /// 05
034700 2108N 06812W 6966 03170 //// +078 //// 114050 052 /// /// 05
034730 2106N 06813W 6967 03167 //// +077 //// 112052 053 /// /// 05
034800 2105N 06815W 6968 03164 //// +080 //// 113051 052 /// /// 05
034830 2103N 06816W 6967 03163 //// +080 //// 117054 055 /// /// 05
034900 2102N 06817W 6969 03160 //// +076 //// 116055 056 /// /// 05
034930 2101N 06819W 6967 03161 //// +071 //// 116055 056 /// /// 05
035000 2059N 06820W 6969 03158 //// +070 //// 118056 056 /// /// 05
035030 2058N 06822W 6970 03154 //// +070 //// 119058 059 /// /// 05
$$
;
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Re:
RL3AO wrote:TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Remember the storm watches and warnings are based on the cone, not the forecast point.
That is a myth. Watches and warning are decided by the track forecast and wind radii forecast.
All the cone is in the 67th percentile of all forecast errors over the past 5 years.
Radius or diameter? Just to be clear.
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000
URNT15 KNHC 230401
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 36 20110823
035100 2057N 06823W 6963 03158 //// +073 //// 116057 058 /// /// 05
035130 2056N 06825W 6969 03149 //// +073 //// 113055 057 /// /// 05
035200 2054N 06826W 6965 03155 //// +063 //// 113056 057 /// /// 05
035230 2053N 06827W 6967 03149 //// +063 //// 109058 059 /// /// 05
035300 2051N 06829W 6965 03147 //// +066 //// 109064 067 /// /// 05
035330 2050N 06830W 6964 03146 //// +067 //// 112064 066 /// /// 05
035400 2049N 06832W 6969 03137 //// +076 //// 116061 061 /// /// 05
035430 2047N 06833W 6970 03138 //// +076 //// 120063 065 /// /// 05
035500 2046N 06835W 6966 03139 //// +074 //// 118065 068 /// /// 05
035530 2045N 06836W 6971 03130 //// +066 //// 123062 063 /// /// 05
035600 2043N 06838W 6971 03128 //// +067 //// 124057 060 /// /// 05
035630 2042N 06839W 6958 03143 //// +068 //// 129058 060 /// /// 05
035700 2041N 06840W 6967 03133 //// +089 //// 138063 068 /// /// 05
035730 2040N 06842W 6967 03129 //// +091 //// 133060 062 /// /// 05
035800 2039N 06843W 6969 03126 //// +087 //// 129061 064 /// /// 05
035830 2037N 06844W 6959 03136 //// +080 //// 131062 063 /// /// 05
035900 2036N 06846W 6969 03125 //// +083 //// 134067 068 /// /// 05
035930 2035N 06847W 6961 03130 //// +079 //// 139067 071 /// /// 05
040000 2034N 06848W 6968 03115 //// +078 //// 139062 065 /// /// 05
040030 2032N 06849W 6979 03106 //// +086 //// 142056 058 /// /// 05
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 230401
AF303 0709A IRENE HDOB 36 20110823
035100 2057N 06823W 6963 03158 //// +073 //// 116057 058 /// /// 05
035130 2056N 06825W 6969 03149 //// +073 //// 113055 057 /// /// 05
035200 2054N 06826W 6965 03155 //// +063 //// 113056 057 /// /// 05
035230 2053N 06827W 6967 03149 //// +063 //// 109058 059 /// /// 05
035300 2051N 06829W 6965 03147 //// +066 //// 109064 067 /// /// 05
035330 2050N 06830W 6964 03146 //// +067 //// 112064 066 /// /// 05
035400 2049N 06832W 6969 03137 //// +076 //// 116061 061 /// /// 05
035430 2047N 06833W 6970 03138 //// +076 //// 120063 065 /// /// 05
035500 2046N 06835W 6966 03139 //// +074 //// 118065 068 /// /// 05
035530 2045N 06836W 6971 03130 //// +066 //// 123062 063 /// /// 05
035600 2043N 06838W 6971 03128 //// +067 //// 124057 060 /// /// 05
035630 2042N 06839W 6958 03143 //// +068 //// 129058 060 /// /// 05
035700 2041N 06840W 6967 03133 //// +089 //// 138063 068 /// /// 05
035730 2040N 06842W 6967 03129 //// +091 //// 133060 062 /// /// 05
035800 2039N 06843W 6969 03126 //// +087 //// 129061 064 /// /// 05
035830 2037N 06844W 6959 03136 //// +080 //// 131062 063 /// /// 05
035900 2036N 06846W 6969 03125 //// +083 //// 134067 068 /// /// 05
035930 2035N 06847W 6961 03130 //// +079 //// 139067 071 /// /// 05
040000 2034N 06848W 6968 03115 //// +078 //// 139062 065 /// /// 05
040030 2032N 06849W 6979 03106 //// +086 //// 142056 058 /// /// 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
If it follows the models, would it be advisable to leave the hampton roads area?
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