ATL: IRENE - Models

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Jevo
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4221 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:18 pm

Im not saying Im breathing a little easier here in in SoFLA after that GFS run.. but I just brought my wife and kids out from the backyard and let them take a break in digging our new bomb shelter.. :lol:

On a serious note. Whats the ETA on the EURO in EST? Jeez how many acronyms can I fit in one question
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#4222 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:18 pm

artist wrote:how does this run compare to its last run? Any further east this time? Or about the same? Thanks!


About the same as previous run. SFL sees minimal affects.
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#4223 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:18 pm

she is not in a hurry to go anywhere is she?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4224 Postby Bruton » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:18 pm

What time do the other models come?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4225 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:19 pm

Massive beach erosion in this scenario but may only brush outer banks?
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#4226 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:19 pm

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4227 Postby Clint_TX » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:21 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Massive beach erosion in this scenario but may only brush outer banks?


I'm thinking it's August and with this setup it's landfall could be farther north than the banks...I'm thinking it's not going to go NNE from the banks...we will see what the models say
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4228 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:21 pm

GFS looks like it could be a major problem for the East Coast. Hope it doesn't head directly north after moving into the Outer Banks. Could send a ton of surge in the the Chesapeake Bay.

Here's the NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_namer&prod=prp&dtg=2011082300&set=All
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#4229 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:22 pm

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4230 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:22 pm

Jevo wrote:Im not saying Im breathing a little easier here in in SoFLA after that GFS run.. but I just brought my wife and kids out from the backyard and let them take a break in digging our new bomb shelter.. :lol:

On a serious note. Whats the ETA on the EURO in EST? Jeez how many acronyms can I fit in one question


2:30AM+/- on the ETA in the EST for the ECMWF...LOL

BTW, keep having them work on the bomb shelter. You may need it! 2012 isn't that far away!!! :chopper:

SFT
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4231 Postby Clint_TX » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:22 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:GFS looks like it could be a major problem for the East Coast. Hope it doesn't head directly north after moving into the Outer Banks. Could send a ton of surge in the the Chesapeake Bay.

Here's the NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_namer&prod=prp&dtg=2011082300&set=All


Let's hope not
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4232 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:23 pm

I really doubt the Euro will be THAT different than GFS. The Euro and GFS have broadly handled the storm the same for many, many runs. Will be interesting to see.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4233 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:24 pm

That NOGAPS run looks very Floyd"ish". That it a very close call on the turn. Any more ridging or less digging trough and we get smacked.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4234 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:25 pm

Yes that would be very significant. There is a huge surge potential up the Bay. This is one of those worst case scenario's for that area... possibly.
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#4235 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:25 pm

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#4236 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:25 pm

Can anyone tell if the GFS has Irene making landfall? it's so difficult to tell because it's so strong and the white is covering up the coastline, lol...
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Re: Re:

#4237 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:25 pm

SFLcane wrote:
artist wrote:how does this run compare to its last run? Any further east this time? Or about the same? Thanks!


About the same as previous run. SFL sees minimal affects.


Yeah but the difference is, it is very slow this run and theres a stronger trough... which makes you think... "stronger trough (in August? what the?)... about the same track as previous run... what if the ridge holds on stronger? and it was the same track as previous run?...
TBH, i dont think Florida is out of the woods just yet. But just my opinion.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4238 Postby wjs3 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:25 pm

I'm really interested in how that second trof evolves in later model runs. It was definitely sharper this run of the GFS (hence the track is fartehr east at day 4 and 5). Will that trend be verified by the Euro? Will the trend of a stronger trof continue in later runs?
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Re:

#4239 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:26 pm

artist wrote:how does this run compare to its last run? Any further east this time? Or about the same? Thanks!


At 120h... compared to the 18z the final point is a fair bit farther up the coast (mid-NC coast vice SC/NC border). Ever sp slightly north compared to the 12Z run.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4240 Postby Battlebrick » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:26 pm

i can only imagine the rain totals for the whole eastern seaboard for the 0z GFS..
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