ATL: IRENE - Models

[x-y-no]

So is it safe to give the all clear here in FL? No more cone = no more worries, right?

It *never* makes sense to give an "all clear" when there's a significant storm headed in your general direction. That said, I'm 95% confident that the worst I'll see here by Ft. Lauderdale Beach is TS conditions with winds generally out of the NNE to NNW.


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[HURRICANELONNY]

Agreed. But until it passes your latitude. Don't let your guard down completely. But then again. There was Jeanne.

[Recurve]

I'll say it too: The 'cone' is where the CENTER is expected/likely to be. That means the center of Irene could be on the very left edge of the cone.

But I am feeling a lot better since it's not likely anymore that we will be too close to the center.

As always, listen to the NHC and your local NWS. Effects can be felt OUTSIDE of the cone.

[Weatherboy1]

Definitely breathing a lot easier here in Palm Beach County this morning. It's hard to argue with such a solid model consensus for a turn. Looks like Irene will be about as far east of us as Floyd was, and despite the strength of that hurricane, we only got a little bit of wind and rain ... and that's all I'm expecting here unless the turn gets delayed for some unexplained or unexpected reason.

[pgoss11]

Local Met here in Charleston just said the latest guidance suggests Irene will be much more offshore as she passes Charleston and the OBX may be the only landfall threat. Still too soon to say all clear, but the continued east trend continues.

[crimi481]

Wonder if up-welling, or if D.R. Mountains are keeping center from really exploding (and not showing eye) ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-bd.html

[crimi481]

Last few frames - shows w/nw moement. No N.W. yet?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-bd.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

***CURRENT*** Steering...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

Delta, Looking back at the CIMMS plots 12 or hours back I see that the trough looks to be infilling especial in the last 3 hour plot? I wonder if we are filling back in some. I not see that in the NAM or the GFS, pretty much holding steady through the next 12-24 hours. If this is the case, I wonder if we coudl see a kick or jog back west?

[RL3AO]

So is it safe to give the all clear here in FL? No more cone = no more worries, right?

Remember the cone represents the 67 percentile error of all forecasts over the past 5 years which means 1/3 of all NHC forecasts end up outside of the cone.

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note... THe NAm started and has a stronger initial ridge again after last nights 0z which show a weaker one. not sure if it will mean anything but.....

[RL3AO]

THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH THE FOLLOWING UPR AIR REPORTS
AVAILABLE FOR MODEL INGEST...14 ALASKAN...30 CANADIAN...74
CONUS...10 MEXICAN AND 9 CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS 4 DROPSONDE
REPORTS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.

[jes]

Doesn't the latest GFS show the storm missing the Carolina shores and moving more North -- maybe more like NYC?

[BensonTCwatcher]

I thought that was the case looking at the NAM, and also the CIMMS plots seems to be confirming last 3 hours?? Not that that is specifically correlated, but coudl be a wrinkle in the other wise "solid" consensus.

[Aric Dunn]

THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH THE FOLLOWING UPR AIR REPORTS
AVAILABLE FOR MODEL INGEST...14 ALASKAN...30 CANADIAN...74
CONUS...10 MEXICAN AND 9 CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS 4 DROPSONDE
REPORTS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.

SW atlantic ? meaning north of it ?>

[PTrackerLA]

Anyone have a better spaghetti model plot? The SFWMD site is so zoomed in you can't even see most of North Carolina.

[clfenwi]

Anyone have a better spaghetti model plot? The SFWMD site is so zoomed in you can't even see most of North Carolina.

Source: Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project

[CrazyC83]

Good consensus on either eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia, or an offshore miss completely.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow looks like an offshore miss is even more likely this morning. Going to be a close call folks.

[jhpigott]

on a side note... THe NAm started and has a stronger initial ridge again after last nights 0z which show a weaker one. not sure if it will mean anything but.....

What's the NAM doing? Still holding the ridge?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wanting to see (as we always do at this stage) if the WV looks like the model intializations

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv

Looks like the trough is getting pinched off around east Tenn. which seems to indicate the ridge filling back in a bit.