ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

the last 3 fixes show a movement of 300 degrees.

last vortex message had it here

URNT12 KNHC 231730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/17:10:50Z
B. 20 deg 38 min N
071 deg 09 min W

the 11 AM location was
...20.5n 71.0w


doesn't seem to be moving at all?

[Meteorcane]

I still think a southern NC hit seems most likely I don't really feel like this is a recurving storm, it seems too early to have that strong of a trough, just my opinion though

[tolakram]

Irene is going to be quite large once it moves NW. IMO looking very good and fighting dry air inflow from Hispaniola.

[ozonepete]

the last 3 fixes show a movement of 300 degrees.

i have to disagree

Why would you disagree with RECON fixes?

[RL3AO]

With such a large eye and slow movement you can't really use the vdm's to measure accurately.

Its moved about 14 nmi in 2 1/2 hours.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 231749
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 30 20110823
173900 2159N 07130W 6915 03193 //// +067 //// 086048 050 045 002 01
173930 2159N 07133W 6917 03190 //// +063 //// 084048 050 045 003 01
174000 2159N 07135W 6914 03194 0037 +080 +077 081044 045 046 000 00
174030 2200N 07137W 6914 03193 0041 +076 //// 082043 043 045 001 05
174100 2200N 07140W 6914 03197 0043 +077 //// 084044 046 044 002 05
174130 2200N 07142W 6913 03201 0057 +069 //// 083047 047 046 001 01
174200 2200N 07144W 6916 03199 0051 +071 //// 078046 047 044 001 01
174230 2200N 07147W 6916 03200 0046 +071 //// 073043 046 044 003 01
174300 2200N 07149W 6914 03201 0043 +080 +078 075040 040 044 000 03
174330 2201N 07151W 6916 03197 0042 +080 +078 075038 039 044 000 03
174400 2201N 07153W 6916 03198 0044 +080 +069 075038 038 044 000 00
174430 2201N 07156W 6916 03199 0042 +080 +075 074036 037 045 000 03
174500 2201N 07158W 6914 03203 0051 +074 //// 073036 038 045 000 05
174530 2201N 07200W 6912 03206 //// +068 //// 070044 045 046 001 01
174600 2201N 07202W 6916 03200 //// +059 //// 063053 057 047 002 01
174630 2201N 07205W 6914 03205 //// +060 //// 060056 057 046 003 01
174700 2202N 07207W 6913 03206 //// +058 //// 062054 055 048 003 01
174730 2202N 07209W 6917 03200 //// +060 //// 064053 054 046 004 01
174800 2202N 07212W 6912 03207 //// +058 //// 058053 054 046 004 01
174830 2202N 07214W 6915 03205 0064 +067 //// 049054 055 046 002 01
$$

[ozonepete]

With such a large eye and slow movement you can't really use the vdm's to measure accurately.

Its moved about 14 nmi in 2 1/2 hours.

Yeah, but your eye or a pencil and paper are no more reliable.

[Aric Dunn]

With such a large eye and slow movement you can't really use the vdm's to measure accurately.

Its moved about 14 nmi in 2 1/2 hours.

yeah not exactly a fast motion.. lol

thats a little under 7mph.. I can run that fast

[bexar]

is a major hurricane unlikely now? looks like Irene may be battling dry air and shear for the next 24-48 hrs?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITE AT
PROVIDENCIALES IN THE CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 50 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORT BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
977 MB...28.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF IRENE. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. STORM SURGE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[littlevince]

[wjs3]

Thanks for saying that before I did, Phil. You put a smiley on it at least!

[CronkPSU]

NHC 2:00PM center point

location...20.7n 71.2w

[alch97]

If it is slowing down, what affect would that have on the future. Track?

[Evil Jeremy]

What does the slo movement. Now mean for Irene's future track?

[ozonepete]

Off topic, but we just had an earthquake in NYC! My office just shook.

[chris_fit]

is a major hurricane unlikely now? looks like Irene may be battling dry air and shear for the next 24-48 hrs?

There isn't too much Shear, I think she will likely become a major down the road.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC 2:00PM center point

location...20.7n 71.2w

Thats a lot more west than north of the last position

[summersquall]

WOW from USGS
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... hp#details

5.8 2011/08/23 17:51:03 37.875 -77.908 6.0 VIRGINIA

15 km (9 miles) S (179°) from Mineral, VA
18 km (12 miles) SSE (154°) from Louisa, VA
26 km (16 miles) ENE (58°) from Columbia, VA
54 km (34 miles) NW (314°) from Richmond, VA
139 km (87 miles) SW (214°) from Washington, DC

[tpelland]

DC to NY 6.0 Earthquake