ATL: IRENE - Models

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HurrMark
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#4481 Postby HurrMark » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:24 pm

I think the impact on the Northeast will depend on how much land Irene goes over. If it just skirts the Outer Banks, it will not lose as much intensity as if it went over Wilmington, NC and reemerged off Virginia or Maryland. So a slight deviation could make a huge impact on whether the Northeast just gets a bad rain storm or a full-fledged hurricane (or nothing at all if it goes out to sea).
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Re: Re:

#4482 Postby Meteorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:25 pm

rainstorm wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:
rainstorm wrote:just my 2 cents on the models. they shifted east 4/5 days in advance. could be a sign this east trend may be over.


I don't understand your question?



not a question. just saying it has time to possibly shift back.


Ok I see, and honestly based on the last few runs I think we are probably done with "trends" and more to minor flip-flopping but basic consistency.
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#4483 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:25 pm

isn't there another gulfstream going out today ?
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Re: Re:

#4484 Postby sicktght311 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:28 pm

meteorcane wrote:
Ok I see, and honestly based on the last few runs I think we are probably done with "trends" and more to minor flip-flopping but basic consistency.


Theres been a lot of talk about her apparent lack of forward motion over the past few hours. A lot of talk of how her slowing down a little might affect future model runs. Watched this board all winter long with the various blizzards we had up here in NY, and i can certainly say that its amazing how quickly things can change when a storm slows down ever so slightly. Misses everything that the models said it was going to link up with, and now you're facing a whole new set of variables. Just my observations of what some are saying thats all :)
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Re:

#4485 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:isn't there another gulfstream going out today ?


Yes, it's been collecting data for a few hours now.
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#4486 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:30 pm

New Euro? +24

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Re: Re:

#4487 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:30 pm

fox13weather wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:I just don't see Irene strengthening up to landfall like the GFDL shows.


Landfall? If there is a landfall.



I enjoy the posts from fox13weather meteorologist, but I still wish he would explain his opinions more, because otherwise he rubs people the wrong way.....
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4488 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:31 pm

Euro +48

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#4489 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:33 pm

12z Euro +72

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4490 Postby crimi481 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:34 pm

That Euro model showing pretty strong ridge? Dpes that Model indicate Irene goes north?
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#4491 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:34 pm

12z Euro +96

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#4492 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:35 pm

12z Euro +120

Hello Mid Atlantic

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Re:

#4493 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:isn't there another gulfstream going out today ?


Yep, flying around right now. Looks like 4 dropsondes have been released so far. I posted the planned path in the recon discussion thread; looks like #4 was dropped right where planned (east of the northernmost Bahamas Islands).
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#4494 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:38 pm

12z Euro +144
NE bound

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#4495 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:39 pm

Euro is a little slower this run and also slight left more in the bahamas. more through the central than eastern bahamas..
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4496 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:39 pm

holy Korean Jesus, 927 mb barrelling toward the megalopolis on sunday morning...I def dont think I am flying our of Philly sunday afternoon.
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Re: Re:

#4497 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:39 pm

clfenwi wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:isn't there another gulfstream going out today ?


Yep, flying around right now. Looks like 4 dropsondes have been released so far. I posted the planned path in the recon discussion thread; looks like #4 was dropped right where planned (east of the northernmost Bahamas Islands).



good 18z model runs should get the data ingested in them again.
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Re:

#4498 Postby HurrMark » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:41 pm

Jevo wrote:12z Euro +120

Hello Mid Atlantic

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This still looks offshore to me...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4499 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:43 pm

looks like it nailed the outer banks and into virginia beach to me...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4500 Postby Talgrissett » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:45 pm

Does anyone think the trend east has stopped and a west trend may bring the storm back to Myrtle Beach?
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