ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[sweetpea]

Mandatory evacuation of tourists from Ocracoke Island NC starts tomorrow, with evacuation of locals starting on Thursday. Also, Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras National Seashores closing and evacuating.

Remember, Ocracoke Island and Cape Lookout Seashore are on islands and only accessible by ferry, so they have to start early.
Also, NC highway 12, the only road along the outer banks north of Ocracoke, will overwash early north of Hatteras.

My cousin lives in Avon, he is trying to decide what to do. He has lived there a long time, but I told him to leave. Hoping he does.I have alot of family in NJ and NYC, this storm has definitely caused me to lose sleep. It has already given my dad in Puerto Rico a pretty good lashing. Prayers to all of you in this storms path. Be safe

[KWT]

You are not kidding, especially if the center is really close. In 1992 we had a nor'easter with ENE winds sustained around 50 -6o mph and brief 80-90 mph gusts for an hour and parts of southern Manhattan along the two rivers went under water. The water stopped just before the NY Stock Exchange. I was working there and personally saw 2 very large windows pop out of the 30th floor of a skyscraper on Water Street on the SE side of the island. It took weeks to clean that up. Anything even a little stronger would flood the Trade Center site and most of southern Manhattan. Brooklyn's entire shore including Coney Island would be under water as well. Also, the Jersey shore would be devastated by this track - no more Snooki (ok, joke) - they have serious erosion problems just from 60 mph nor'easters. So it's early yet and I never have trusted a track more than 3 days out, but I dread if this is still the forecast on Thursday.

Probably would be very similar to what NYC would get from Irene based on what the models are showing, they'll be on the western side of the circulation which will probably be weaker then the true strength of the system, so if it comes in at 75-85mph, then NYC would probably get sustained in the 50-60mph range and maybe 65-75mph gusts.

Strong, but a major city should be able to handle those winds and not come out of it too severely harmed...

Still you never quite know...

[ozonepete]

Here's an excellent map that NYC Emergency Management has produced for just these situations. You can see the large areas that would get flooded by storm category.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

[ncweatherwizard]

Mandatory evacuation of tourists from Ocracoke Island NC starts tomorrow, with evacuation of locals starting on Thursday. Also, Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras National Seashores closing and evacuating.

Remember, Ocracoke Island and Cape Lookout Seashore are on islands and only accessible by ferry, so they have to start early.
Also, NC highway 12, the only road along the outer banks north of Ocracoke, will overwash early north of Hatteras.

My cousin lives in Avon, he is trying to decide what to do. He has lived there a long time, but I told him to leave. Hoping he does.I have alot of family in NJ and NYC, this storm has definitely caused me to lose sleep. It has already given my dad in Puerto Rico a pretty good lashing. Prayers to all of you in this storms path. Be safe

Was he there during Emily?

[RL3AO]

Had to leave. Can't post recon from phone

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232250
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 08 20110823
224000 1856N 06647W 3930 07706 0398 -163 //// 219003 004 /// /// 05
224030 1857N 06649W 3930 07704 0398 -165 //// 249005 005 /// /// 05
224100 1858N 06651W 3933 07702 0400 -163 //// 223005 006 /// /// 05
224130 1859N 06653W 3935 07696 0397 -164 //// 225006 007 /// /// 05
224200 1900N 06655W 4029 07518 0383 -157 //// 251004 005 /// /// 05
224230 1901N 06657W 4126 07330 0366 -144 -146 297004 005 /// /// 03
224300 1902N 06659W 4213 07174 0355 -133 -141 327004 005 /// /// 03
224330 1904N 06701W 4280 07048 0345 -123 -134 300006 007 /// /// 03
224400 1905N 06704W 4334 06952 0339 -116 -128 292006 006 /// /// 03
224430 1906N 06706W 4391 06850 0333 -110 -121 254007 009 /// /// 03
224500 1908N 06708W 4444 06757 0326 -105 -120 232011 011 /// /// 03
224530 1909N 06711W 4528 06606 0310 -101 -109 229013 014 /// /// 03
224600 1910N 06713W 4646 06406 0295 -087 -097 235020 024 /// /// 03
224630 1911N 06716W 4727 06272 0290 -084 -088 229024 028 /// /// 03
224700 1913N 06718W 4826 06117 0284 -075 -083 242021 021 /// /// 03
224730 1914N 06720W 4928 05951 0273 -064 -071 234024 027 /// /// 03
224800 1915N 06722W 5037 05780 0260 -055 -058 223026 027 /// /// 03
224830 1917N 06724W 5186 05543 0244 -047 //// 214027 028 /// /// 05
224900 1919N 06726W 5422 05194 0221 -036 -037 201019 021 /// /// 03
224930 1921N 06728W 5659 04849 0084 -026 -029 172021 023 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Cainer]

I got it RL3AO.

000
URNT15 KWBC 232241
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 17 20110823
223130 2120N 07227W 7521 02439 9949 +148 +126 035060 061 048 006 00
223200 2119N 07225W 7520 02436 9940 +152 +124 033059 059 049 007 00
223230 2118N 07223W 7521 02431 9935 +152 +127 029058 058 048 007 00
223300 2117N 07221W 7521 02424 9930 +149 +130 026056 056 048 007 00
223330 2116N 07219W 7519 02424 9927 +148 +127 023054 055 051 012 00
223400 2115N 07217W 7521 02415 9917 +152 +136 023054 056 053 018 00
223430 2114N 07215W 7522 02409 9911 +152 +136 014052 054 058 024 00
223500 2113N 07213W 7529 02398 9914 +143 +140 013063 071 061 029 00
223530 2112N 07211W 7517 02401 9908 +133 //// 028075 081 064 017 01
223600 2111N 07210W 7520 02382 9887 +142 //// 034063 068 063 008 01
223630 2110N 07208W 7517 02376 9870 +146 //// 034068 072 064 008 01
223700 2109N 07206W 7555 02319 9853 +150 //// 030065 070 065 009 01
223730 2108N 07204W 7543 02317 9832 +156 +160 028060 060 065 007 00
223800 2107N 07202W 7545 02301 9810 +161 //// 021058 060 067 009 01
223830 2106N 07201W 7550 02279 9783 +172 +167 006061 064 068 005 00
223900 2105N 07158W 7543 02270 9760 +177 +165 008064 064 063 005 03
223930 2104N 07156W 7544 02252 9736 +185 +163 012056 059 054 002 03
224000 2104N 07154W 7544 02237 9712 +194 +158 015042 049 046 002 00
224030 2104N 07152W 7543 02224 9697 +196 +156 017028 031 037 001 00
224100 2104N 07150W 7543 02218 9693 +193 +153 014023 025 /// /// 03

Pressure 969.3 and falling.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

So about 5 days ago, I was shocked when someone said that there was absolutely NO WAY that Irene could go out to sea.

I've noticed that since that moment, the track has shifted east with almost every advisory. We all know that if such trend continues, Irene won't be making landfall in the US. Of course, the current track would be an awful one. 50 miles to the east would be bad too. But 100 miles to the east would essentially clear the US.

Place your bets: Could this one go fish after all? (Don't base your answer on what the maps say--remember--the track showed this going straight up Florida just 5 days ago.

I bet no to the fish. It already hit PR and is getting ready to hit the Bahamas. Pay up!

You're right--sorry--I used the word "fish" in the wrong way. Hope I didn't offend anyone... I meant do you think this could avoid the continental US?

if the trend continues the way the model runs have gone today, then i would say yes, there is a very good chance of that.

[sweetpea]

Mandatory evacuation of tourists from Ocracoke Island NC starts tomorrow, with evacuation of locals starting on Thursday. Also, Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras National Seashores closing and evacuating.

Remember, Ocracoke Island and Cape Lookout Seashore are on islands and only accessible by ferry, so they have to start early.
Also, NC highway 12, the only road along the outer banks north of Ocracoke, will overwash early north of Hatteras.

My cousin lives in Avon, he is trying to decide what to do. He has lived there a long time, but I told him to leave. Hoping he does.I have alot of family in NJ and NYC, this storm has definitely caused me to lose sleep. It has already given my dad in Puerto Rico a pretty good lashing. Prayers to all of you in this storms path. Be safe

Was he there during Emily?

Yes he was. Not getting a break this year.

[SunnyThoughts]

Pressure at 969 per recon

[cpdaman]

follow pressure in the turks and caicos here

weatherunderground link

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

29.41 heading down

actually this spot is about 20 miles closer to where center is supposed to pass

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPROVIDE8

[Meteorcane]

Pressure at 969 per recon

They have found higher pressures with sondes than the extapolated though we will have tos ee this time.

[NC George]

Mandatory evacuation of tourists from Ocracoke Island NC starts tomorrow, with evacuation of locals starting on Thursday. Also, Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras National Seashores closing and evacuating.

Remember, Ocracoke Island and Cape Lookout Seashore are on islands and only accessible by ferry, so they have to start early.
Also, NC highway 12, the only road along the outer banks north of Ocracoke, will overwash early north of Hatteras.

My cousin lives in Avon, he is trying to decide what to do. He has lived there a long time, but I told him to leave. Hoping he does.I have alot of family in NJ and NYC, this storm has definitely caused me to lose sleep. It has already given my dad in Puerto Rico a pretty good lashing. Prayers to all of you in this storms path. Be safe

If I were in Avon, I'd probably leave if the storm was still predicted to cross the Outer Banks on Thursday. Main reason being access. It's like a 75 mile drive to get off the island, and the road is very prone to overwash, which would trap you at your house. You can count on the power being out for a couple of days minimum, which would make things really suck being there for a week or so after the storm. Incidentally the pic to the left was taken near Avon.

[ncweatherwizard]

Was he there during Emily?

Yes he was. Not getting a break this year.

No kidding; been through quite a few then. I was just asking because he might experience about the same with Irene as during Emily. Useful to think of as a benchmark.

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KWBC 232251
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 18 20110823
224130 2103N 07148W 7544 02214 9693 +188 +153 017015 018 021 001 03
224200 2103N 07146W 7543 02212 9687 +192 +148 074004 006 021 000 00
224230 2102N 07144W 7545 02210 9689 +193 +143 173005 009 023 001 00
224300 2102N 07142W 7545 02213 9692 +193 +143 191013 016 026 002 00
224330 2100N 07140W 7545 02216 9695 +192 +144 197023 029 036 002 00
224400 2100N 07138W 7542 02227 9707 +188 +147 202044 049 049 004 00
224430 2059N 07136W 7544 02241 9736 +173 +154 204058 063 056 003 00
224500 2058N 07134W 7546 02258 9764 +163 +159 204066 067 057 007 00
224530 2057N 07132W 7537 02287 9792 +153 +154 206076 080 061 007 00
224600 2056N 07130W 7553 02283 9816 +147 +145 212077 078 062 007 00
224630 2055N 07129W 7540 02313 9835 +148 +129 218078 079 064 005 00
224700 2054N 07127W 7506 02374 9853 +154 +103 214079 081 062 007 00
224730 2053N 07125W 7502 02395 9876 +147 +122 211075 077 058 015 00
224800 2052N 07123W 7507 02403 9783 +149 +125 204077 093 057 011 00
224830 2051N 07122W 7511 02410 9902 +146 +139 210060 064 054 007 00
224900 2050N 07120W 7516 02411 9905 +150 +142 210056 058 049 005 00
224930 2049N 07118W 7526 02405 9917 +148 +133 207053 054 047 005 00
225000 2048N 07116W 7522 02417 9926 +147 +120 206054 056 046 003 03
225030 2047N 07114W 7526 02416 9930 +149 +118 208052 053 043 002 00
225100 2046N 07113W 7523 02425 9941 +141 +124 204050 051 042 002 00

Pressure 968.7 extrapolated.

[Cainer]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232300
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 09 20110823
225000 1923N 06731W 5886 04517 0082 -013 -014 176023 024 /// /// 03
225030 1925N 06733W 6110 04246 0104 +007 +005 185025 027 /// /// 03
225100 1927N 06734W 6169 04171 0096 +018 -003 184028 029 /// /// 03
225130 1929N 06736W 6163 04180 0101 +016 -010 182029 030 /// /// 03
225200 1931N 06737W 6160 04182 0109 +006 +006 181029 031 /// /// 03
225230 1933N 06739W 6180 04158 0111 +009 //// 187028 029 /// /// 05
225300 1934N 06741W 6165 04182 0117 +007 //// 201033 036 /// /// 05
225330 1936N 06742W 6303 03998 0114 +018 //// 206037 037 /// /// 05
225400 1938N 06743W 6400 03869 0110 +026 //// 201037 039 /// /// 05
225430 1940N 06745W 6415 03853 0110 +027 //// 201040 045 /// /// 05
225500 1941N 06747W 6410 03854 0104 +030 +027 204045 047 /// /// 03
225530 1943N 06748W 6412 03852 0105 +028 //// 198042 044 /// /// 05
225600 1944N 06750W 6410 03854 0099 +032 //// 184036 039 /// /// 05
225630 1946N 06752W 6415 03850 0089 +036 //// 172029 031 /// /// 05
225700 1947N 06754W 6406 03855 0083 +039 //// 172032 032 /// /// 05
225730 1949N 06756W 6411 03850 0088 +035 //// 176034 034 /// /// 05
225800 1951N 06758W 6415 03847 0087 +037 //// 183034 035 /// /// 05
225830 1952N 06759W 6409 03855 0079 +042 +025 190035 035 /// /// 03
225900 1954N 06801W 6413 03850 0072 +047 +026 186033 034 037 009 00
225930 1956N 06803W 6416 03846 0077 +045 +014 178036 037 036 005 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

It looks like Irene is starting to intensify as lowest pressure found by NOAA plane was 9687.

[KWT]

Pressure at 969 per recon

Deeper then it was last recon pass that is for sure, looks like a steady deepening phase is happening right now, will probably speed up in the next 6-12hrs IMO.

[sweetpea]

Thank you NC George ( I like the pic) and nc weather wizard. Unfortunately my cousin is extremely hard headed. He has been through quite a few storms living there. He lives on a stretch of beach similar to your picture. I am guessing he might leave at the very last minute, keeping my fingers crossed. You guys also stay safe!

[KWT]

It looks like Irene is starting to intensify as lowest pressure found by NOAA plane was 9687.

Yep its getting stronger, if this is a cat-1 right now it won't be for much longer, think its on its way to major status.