ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[weatherSnoop]

I'm out here on Abaco Bahamas on the easternmost island called Elbow Key - a place called Hope Town. Had to take a Ferry Ride out to get here from Marsh Harbor - about 6 mies. I'll let you folks know what happens. We have WiFi out here - until the power goes out!

Looking forward to your reports

[lonelymike]

its now a 5.5 on the bastardi scale

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Should deliver hurricane force winds in all states NC to Maine
10 minutes ago
»
Joe Bastardi
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
IRENE EXPLODING! PRESSURE DOWN NEAR 965. NOW A POWER RATING OF 5.5 OUT OF 10 BASTARDI SCALE ( pressure factors into true strength)

Humble dude

[KWT]

Its starting to look more impressive now on IR, the cloud tops continue to warm over the center. to be fair the cloud tops are warming full stop but I think the structual changes starting to take place are a pretty good hint of what is to come with Irene, I'm still going to go for a 115-120kts hurricane at peak.

[Dave]

I can take a mission or post center fixes only....having trouble with GE updating on my system tonight...will reinstall tomorrow.

Take over the NOAA2 plane. I'll stay on AF302.

Got it..GE still not updating.

[BigA]

Looks about on course toward the next forecast point per the latest VDM. (21.05N 71.95W)

[ConvergenceZone]

Eye is just popped out completely on this last frame:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[Cainer]

Irene is waking up it seems.

[ConvergenceZone]

Its starting to look more impressive now on IR, the cloud tops continue to warm over the center. to be fair the cloud tops are warming full stop but I think the structual changes starting to take place are a pretty good hint of what is to come with Irene, I'm still going to go for a 115-120kts hurricane at peak.

I don't think a cat 4 is out of the question either, at least at some point.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240050
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 20 20110824
004000 2016N 07152W 6966 03081 9963 +100 +066 254046 047 033 001 00
004030 2016N 07150W 6967 03083 9969 +098 +070 250044 045 032 002 00
004100 2015N 07148W 6965 03089 9968 +098 +072 248042 043 033 001 00
004130 2014N 07146W 6967 03084 9968 +099 +078 247043 043 034 001 00
004200 2014N 07144W 6968 03088 9972 +094 +078 248043 043 030 006 00
004230 2013N 07141W 6967 03088 9979 +092 +081 247041 043 034 004 00
004300 2013N 07139W 6970 03088 9976 +094 +086 241041 043 034 004 00
004330 2012N 07137W 6967 03090 9978 +093 +090 244042 043 039 007 00
004400 2011N 07135W 6967 03093 //// +073 //// 245044 046 038 010 01
004430 2011N 07133W 6958 03104 //// +068 //// 242044 045 037 011 01
004500 2010N 07131W 6967 03094 //// +068 //// 240039 040 038 011 01
004530 2010N 07129W 6967 03093 9988 +085 //// 234040 040 034 007 01
004600 2009N 07127W 6969 03094 9991 +078 //// 229041 042 028 005 01
004630 2008N 07125W 6971 03093 //// +075 //// 222039 041 028 005 01
004700 2008N 07123W 6969 03096 9999 +083 //// 218038 039 025 007 01
004730 2007N 07121W 6965 03102 0007 +079 //// 215038 039 020 003 01
004800 2007N 07119W 6966 03103 9995 +089 +082 212038 039 021 002 00
004830 2006N 07118W 6969 03102 9995 +090 +086 210040 041 021 002 00
004900 2006N 07116W 6968 03102 9996 +089 //// 213041 041 021 004 01
004930 2005N 07114W 6967 03106 9997 +090 //// 217041 042 013 001 01
$$
;

[lonelymike]

Looks like it about to make its run at Cat 4

[margiek]

000
URNT12 KWBC 240030
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/0006Z
B. 21 DEG 3 MIN N
71 DEG 56 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 148 DEG 101 KT
G. 057 DEG 28 NM
H. EXTRAP 968 MB
I. 14 C/2448 M
J. 20 C/2438 M
K. 14 C/NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C20
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1009A IRENE OB 20 AL092011
MAX FL WIND 101 KT NW QUAD 0001Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 750MB


About same time as the AF flight but different eyewall diameters.

[cycloneye]

From NOAA plane.

MAX FL WIND 101 KT NW QUAD 0001Z

[CrazyC83]

MAX FL WIND 101 KT NW QUAD 0001Z

That supports an 85 kt intensity at the level the NOAA plane was it. But nothing else supports such; I would stick to 80 kt for now.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No doubt she is definitely strengthening as I expected. I just don't really see the shear NHC is talking about. Definitely not enough to prevent her from getting to MAJOR status and maybe even a CAT 4 while in the Bahamas.

I was surprised they lowered their intensity forecast in the last advisory.

[ConvergenceZone]

The NHC says a potential cat 3 by tomorrow night?
I say a potential cat 3 by tomorrow morning!

[Jevo]

its now a 5.5 on the bastardi scale

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Should deliver hurricane force winds in all states NC to Maine
10 minutes ago
»
Joe Bastardi
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
IRENE EXPLODING! PRESSURE DOWN NEAR 965. NOW A POWER RATING OF 5.5 OUT OF 10 BASTARDI SCALE ( pressure factors into true strength)

I literally had soda come out of my nose when I read this.. .. LoL BigJoeBastardi.... and now there is a Bastardi scale... we're in trouble.

While I agree that the storm will effect NC to Maine, I dont necessarly agree with knocking SC out of the mix

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240100
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 21 20110824
005000 2005N 07112W 6966 03106 9997 +092 +087 220040 040 008 001 00
005030 2004N 07110W 6967 03105 9997 +095 +075 221039 039 010 000 00
005100 2003N 07108W 6967 03111 9999 +094 +072 221038 038 008 001 00
005130 2003N 07106W 6966 03112 0003 +093 +078 221039 040 009 000 00
005200 2002N 07104W 6970 03107 0002 +092 +084 221040 040 001 001 00
005230 2002N 07102W 6967 03112 0002 +094 +081 222040 040 001 000 03
005300 2001N 07100W 6967 03113 0005 +092 +085 221037 038 000 001 03
005330 2001N 07058W 6959 03128 0009 +091 +091 218036 037 /// /// 03
005400 2003N 07057W 6970 03111 0006 +095 +088 215036 037 /// /// 03
005430 2004N 07058W 6966 03117 0006 +092 +088 218033 033 /// /// 03
005500 2004N 07100W 6966 03112 0002 +095 +077 220033 034 000 002 03
005530 2005N 07101W 6967 03109 0001 +095 +071 218034 034 003 001 03
005600 2006N 07103W 6967 03108 0001 +095 +071 216035 035 008 000 00
005630 2008N 07104W 6966 03109 9997 +095 +078 212034 035 011 001 00
005700 2009N 07106W 6967 03105 9993 +097 +076 212035 036 016 000 00
005730 2010N 07107W 6966 03105 9992 +095 +081 210036 036 015 001 00
005800 2012N 07108W 6966 03104 9995 +090 +085 207037 037 016 001 00
005830 2013N 07110W 6967 03102 9996 +088 +085 205037 038 021 003 00
005900 2014N 07111W 6967 03103 9994 +090 +083 203036 037 026 002 00
005930 2016N 07113W 6967 03100 9999 +084 //// 203038 039 023 003 01
$$
;

[Dave]

Waiting on hdobs #29 from NOAA...

NOAA2

[Lannes]

Just heard back from my friend on Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. It's beginning to get scary. The sliding hurricane doors on their suite are bowing in and water (surge?) is already standing a good distance from the beach. He mentioned that there is an evacuation order (obviously) but no where to evacuate to.

Nasty situation- riding out this storm in a beach front condo a thousand miles from home with the eye bearing down.

[Dave]

AF302