ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[bob rulz]

Wow, looks very formidable in that loop. I would be shocked if it didn't reach cat 4 today.

[Frank2]

The NHC plots are accurate right now - let's hope this hurricane never sees land (more of a possibility per the models):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[tolakram]

live 30 frame IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

zoom 2

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

make your own loop link:

IR:

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=30&map=latlon&palette=spect.pal

VIS:

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=5&map=latlon

[RL3AO]

578
URNT15 KNHC 241142
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 17 20110824
113230 2233N 07248W 6959 03055 //// +086 //// 129070 077 /// /// 05
113300 2231N 07249W 6950 03060 //// +079 //// 127070 075 /// /// 05
113330 2230N 07250W 6973 03021 //// +074 //// 127070 075 /// /// 05
113400 2229N 07252W 6968 03028 //// +087 //// 131067 068 /// /// 05
113430 2228N 07253W 6966 03027 //// +090 //// 127065 065 /// /// 05
113500 2226N 07254W 6969 03019 //// +097 //// 127066 066 /// /// 05
113530 2225N 07255W 6983 02999 //// +100 //// 132068 069 /// /// 05
113600 2224N 07256W 6968 03004 //// +100 //// 137071 072 /// /// 05
113630 2222N 07257W 6968 03002 //// +105 //// 135069 070 /// /// 05
113700 2221N 07259W 6962 03001 //// +105 //// 133071 073 /// /// 05
113730 2220N 07300W 6968 02990 //// +104 //// 135075 076 /// /// 05
113800 2219N 07301W 6967 02983 //// +111 //// 138080 081 /// /// 05
113830 2218N 07302W 6969 02969 //// +093 //// 135083 085 /// /// 05
113900 2216N 07303W 6963 02962 //// +096 //// 137087 088 /// /// 05
113930 2215N 07304W 6969 02945 //// +114 //// 137086 087 /// /// 05
114000 2214N 07305W 6976 02927 //// +107 //// 136090 091 /// /// 05
114030 2213N 07306W 6960 02934 //// +099 //// 135099 101 /// /// 05
114100 2212N 07308W 6972 02895 //// +105 //// 132098 099 /// /// 05
114130 2210N 07309W 6967 02881 //// +106 //// 131101 103 /// /// 05
114200 2209N 07310W 6973 02840 //// +094 //// 127109 112 /// /// 05
$$
;


112kt FL.

Looks like we have our major.

[littlevince]

[dwsqos2]

I just saw a 112 knots maximum at 700 mb from the AF data; no SFMR data. Assuming a standard wind profile would give about 100 knots.

[RL3AO]

112kt FL. Supports 100kts.

[littlevince]

Why two aircraft at the same time in Irene?

[RL3AO]

NOAA2



766
URNT15 KWBC 241143
NOAA2 1309A IRENE HDOB 21 20110824
113330 2127N 07249W 7513 02420 9921 +141 +123 212066 068 050 004 00
113400 2128N 07250W 7574 02341 9914 +145 +107 212069 070 /// /// 03
113430 2130N 07252W 7550 02366 9918 +132 +124 209073 075 /// /// 03
113500 2131N 07253W 7492 02423 9897 +141 //// 214073 074 /// /// 05
113530 2133N 07255W 7517 02386 9883 +146 +151 215073 076 /// /// 03
113600 2134N 07256W 7527 02369 9874 +148 +153 213075 076 /// /// 03
113630 2136N 07258W 7522 02367 9868 +145 +150 212076 078 /// /// 03
113700 2137N 07259W 7503 02377 9857 +145 +140 214081 081 /// /// 03
113730 2138N 07301W 7520 02348 9849 +142 +147 212082 083 /// /// 03
113800 2140N 07302W 7502 02358 9832 +145 //// 211081 082 061 009 05
113830 2141N 07304W 7518 02325 9815 +148 //// 212084 085 066 013 01
113900 2143N 07305W 7511 02317 9795 +150 //// 214087 089 064 015 01
113930 2144N 07307W 7528 02280 9773 +152 +155 218084 086 064 006 00
114000 2146N 07308W 7523 02264 9748 +156 +146 221087 088 066 004 00
114030 2147N 07310W 7526 02234 9718 +156 +149 223089 090 071 009 00
114100 2148N 07311W 7498 02235 9684 +155 //// 229092 094 073 025 01
114130 2150N 07313W 7505 02197 9643 +164 //// 235083 090 076 015 05
114200 2151N 07314W 7539 02134 9608 +173 +176 232064 069 070 004 03
114230 2153N 07315W 7532 02116 9572 +191 +160 226043 054 058 004 00
114300 2154N 07316W 7543 02098 9560 +199 +159 213024 027 035 001 00


94kt FL SE quad.

[ColinDelia]

YEah, should be an upgrade to category 3 at 8 am

[RL3AO]

[littlevince]

[RL3AO]

401
URNT15 KNHC 241153
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 18 20110824
114230 2208N 07311W 6953 02838 //// +105 //// 128089 103 /// /// 05
114300 2207N 07312W 6990 02769 //// +135 //// 128060 069 /// /// 05
114330 2205N 07313W 6966 02787 //// +141 //// 125048 050 /// /// 05
114400 2204N 07315W 6969 02772 //// +142 //// 125040 043 /// /// 05
114430 2202N 07316W 6965 02771 //// +154 //// 127032 037 /// /// 05
114500 2201N 07317W 6969 02760 //// +157 //// 123022 026 /// /// 05
114530 2159N 07318W 6963 02761 //// +160 //// 136010 012 /// /// 05
114600 2158N 07319W 6967 02757 //// +161 //// 205003 005 /// /// 05
114630 2157N 07320W 6972 02754 //// +164 //// 282008 012 /// /// 05
114700 2155N 07321W 6966 02766 //// +161 //// 289021 024 /// /// 05
114730 2154N 07322W 6965 02774 //// +159 //// 291034 037 /// /// 05
114800 2152N 07323W 6973 02774 //// +157 //// 296045 050 /// /// 05
114830 2151N 07324W 6972 02799 //// +163 //// 308063 067 /// /// 05
114900 2150N 07326W 6968 02826 //// +159 //// 307073 073 /// /// 05
114930 2149N 07327W 6963 02864 //// +159 //// 304075 077 /// /// 05
115000 2148N 07328W 6967 02873 //// +146 //// 294075 076 /// /// 05
115030 2147N 07329W 6967 02890 //// +136 //// 294075 076 /// /// 05
115100 2146N 07330W 6970 02904 //// +128 //// 296075 075 /// /// 05
115130 2145N 07331W 6965 02923 //// +126 //// 295073 073 /// /// 05
115200 2144N 07333W 6962 02941 //// +137 //// 294067 069 /// /// 05
$$
;

[tolakram]

Normal when it's close to the coast. Usually both AF and NOAA does flights.

[tolakram]

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1157.shtml

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THE
CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH....105 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[CronkPSU]

Cat 3!

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am EDT...1200 UTC...the eye of Hurricane Irene was located
near latitude 21.9 north...longitude 73.3 west. Irene is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/h. A gradual turn
toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast
track...the core of Irene will move across the southeastern and
central Bahamas today and over the northwestern Bahamas on
Thursday.


Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115
mph...185 km/h...with higher gusts. Irene is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some
additional strengthening is forecast during the day or so.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles...65 km...from
the center...and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km. An unofficial reporting station at Pine cay in the
Caicos Islands recently reported a wind gust to 65 mph....105 km/h.


The latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter
aircraft was 957 mb...28.26 inches.

[RL3AO]

NOAA2



787
URNT15 KWBC 241153
NOAA2 1309A IRENE HDOB 22 20110824
114330 2156N 07318W 7547 02092 9556 +204 +147 230013 015 028 001 00
114400 2157N 07320W 7533 02106 9556 +202 +145 246003 006 024 000 00
114430 2158N 07321W 7529 02107 9552 +200 +151 117004 006 026 001 00
114500 2200N 07323W 7523 02111 9546 +206 +151 076013 015 026 000 00
114530 2201N 07324W 7546 02092 9556 +202 +156 050029 036 035 003 03
114600 2203N 07326W 7527 02127 9576 +191 +158 043047 051 046 002 00
114630 2204N 07327W 7523 02147 9596 +186 +166 046063 071 078 004 00
114700 2206N 07328W 7505 02193 9625 +181 +178 048084 088 079 013 00
114730 2207N 07329W 7596 02123 9668 +178 +175 051086 088 /// /// 03
114800 2208N 07331W 7535 02224 9703 +173 +159 053083 084 071 009 03
114830 2209N 07333W 7486 02306 9737 +164 +149 056081 082 070 004 00
114900 2211N 07335W 7507 02298 9756 +164 +159 058079 080 066 008 00
114930 2212N 07336W 7524 02297 9777 +164 +160 060076 077 065 002 00
115000 2214N 07337W 7529 02307 9791 +173 +133 059073 075 063 001 00
115030 2215N 07339W 7524 02328 9812 +166 +141 059071 072 060 003 00
115100 2217N 07340W 7521 02345 9829 +162 +148 061070 071 059 003 00
115130 2218N 07342W 7512 02365 9846 +154 +144 063070 073 060 003 00
115200 2220N 07344W 7510 02376 9859 +152 +144 065068 069 058 002 00
115230 2221N 07345W 7512 02385 9871 +149 +148 066065 067 057 003 00
115300 2223N 07347W 7513 02389 9880 +148 +149 067061 061 053 005 03

[mutley]

What looks like an upper level low over FL, GA, SC...what effect is that having on Irene's track? Any influence?

[CronkPSU]

dang...957??? i see after that two and a half hour due west trip late last night, it has resumed back on the NHC path