ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

ERC underway? I would guess the intensity is 90 kt right now despite the lower pressure of 952mb.

[wsquared77]

"A quick update on Hurricane Irene. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track now takes Irene east of Cape Hatteras. This eastward shift is keying off the computer models that want to take a sprawling high pressure system in the western US and move it eastward...which would push the storm to the east. Yesterday those same models were keying on an approaching cold front from the north that would push the storm east.....this is a significant shift in thinking of "what" will push it east. Interestingly, the models tracks are all clustered up together offshore, so the NHC has a "high confidence" that the track will stay offshore....however the average track guidance error 3 days out from a landfalling hurricane is about 200 miles and that 200 miles could have a significant impact on us. I still am concerned that the storm will get so big that it becomes its own driver...not depending on any other weather systems to push it anywhere. Here is the key....75 degrees west!!!!
That is the longitude of Cape Hatteras and if the storm is still going northwest when it passes 75 west before it turns north....then the track will have to be adjusted back to the west. One way or the other, this is going to be a big hurricane and whether it is a direct hit or not on the mainland many of us will feel its impact and even on its present track the impacts on eastern Carteret county and the other counties around the sounds and the Outer Banks will be significant." -- Skip Waters, WCTI Channel 12 Chief Meteorologist

Interesting discussion from a local met that's been around a long time. Read it on wcti12.com and thought the 75 West NW thing might be worth discussing.

I read this too and would really like to hear others' thoughts. Also, would love to hear from any other New Bern area folks who have been here a while. We've been here 3.5 years but just recently moved to downtown (just off E Front Street) and all I've been hearing from people all day is "Oh no, watch out for the flooding!"

In regards to flooding along the rivers and sounds in Eastern NC....I can't upload the graphic but we received a SLOSH model from NOAA in a briefing at work today and worst case flooding at high tide with a CAT 3 moving NE @ 15 showed up to 6 feet of water backup in the neuse around New Bern, and 8 feet in the pamlico sound around Washington. My advice is listen to the locals they know the area....I have lived in Eastern NC all my life and the rivers almost always back up....be prepared this is a fluid situation don't underestimate better safe than sorry.

Thanks for the info, and we'll definitely listen to the locals. I assume what you mean by 6 feet of water backup in the Neuse is 6 feet vertically, from the current river levels. Am I interpreting that right? Wonder what that translates to in terms of water coming out of the river. We live about 150 yards or so from the river, but pretty much level with the water. (Well, our house sits up about 5-6 feet, but street level is level with the water.) And BTW, I appreciate your "this situation is fluid" pun, even if it wasn't intended!

[cpdaman]

new 00 utc steering flow is out on cimss

not sure about interpretting it

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250047
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 23 20110825
003800 2343N 07632W 6967 03071 9951 +096 +083 018055 055 044 002 00
003830 2341N 07632W 6968 03069 9952 +095 +083 016054 054 043 001 00
003900 2339N 07632W 6967 03070 9951 +097 +086 013054 054 043 001 00
003930 2336N 07632W 6966 03071 9949 +098 +082 010053 054 043 001 00
004000 2334N 07633W 6967 03068 9951 +097 +075 008054 054 042 002 00
004030 2332N 07633W 6968 03066 9948 +100 +070 007054 054 042 002 00
004100 2330N 07633W 6966 03069 9946 +101 +069 003053 054 042 002 00
004130 2327N 07633W 6967 03068 9950 +096 +071 003054 054 039 001 00
004200 2325N 07633W 6967 03071 9944 +104 +061 001054 055 040 001 00
004230 2323N 07634W 6967 03068 9942 +106 +059 358052 052 037 001 00
004300 2321N 07634W 6967 03072 9942 +107 +059 356052 053 035 002 00
004330 2318N 07634W 6968 03069 9943 +106 +068 356049 050 037 000 03
004400 2316N 07634W 6968 03071 9948 +103 +072 354048 049 037 000 00
004430 2314N 07634W 6967 03073 9953 +098 +075 354049 050 036 001 00
004500 2312N 07635W 6969 03073 9957 +095 +072 352049 049 038 000 00
004530 2310N 07635W 6969 03075 9960 +098 +066 349048 048 039 001 00
004600 2308N 07635W 6966 03077 9959 +098 +067 348047 048 040 000 00
004630 2305N 07635W 6969 03076 9961 +097 +075 345047 048 037 003 00
004700 2303N 07635W 6966 03082 9966 +094 +081 347049 050 039 005 00
004730 2301N 07635W 6971 03077 9969 +094 +085 344047 049 037 002 00
$$

[kamqercam]

This may be interesting to watch in the coming day or so. USGS Real-Time Water Data for the NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO, NC

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=02089000

[dixiebreeze]

Irene is just past 75 now so she should start to impact the SE coast of Florida a bit pretty soon: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html

[artist]

[dixiebreeze]

WOW -- 24/2345 UTC 23.4N 74.9W T5.0/5.5 IRENE -- Atlantic

[Dave]

[FireRat]

new 00 utc steering flow is out on cimss

not sure about interpretting it

Shows the ridge has been holding steady and not shoving off east yet. Timing is everything in the tropics, and according to the models this should occur overnight. Time will only tell for sure.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250057
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 24 20110825
004800 2259N 07636W 6966 03084 9972 +090 +085 344049 050 035 001 00
004830 2257N 07636W 6970 03082 9975 +090 +073 340047 048 033 002 00
004900 2255N 07636W 6970 03081 9977 +091 +070 336044 045 032 001 00
004930 2253N 07636W 6966 03086 9974 +092 +069 336043 043 033 000 00
005000 2250N 07636W 6969 03083 9973 +095 +067 337044 044 032 001 00
005030 2248N 07637W 6966 03088 9977 +092 +072 337042 043 030 002 00
005100 2246N 07637W 6965 03091 9979 +090 +072 332040 042 029 002 00
005130 2244N 07637W 6969 03086 9979 +091 +069 328039 040 031 001 00
005200 2242N 07637W 6967 03088 9981 +090 +074 326041 042 031 003 00
005230 2240N 07637W 6967 03089 9984 +087 +077 325041 041 030 004 00
005300 2238N 07637W 6967 03090 9985 +087 +075 324040 041 028 003 00
005330 2236N 07638W 6967 03092 9982 +091 +070 325041 041 028 002 00
005400 2234N 07638W 6967 03093 9983 +093 +066 325039 040 029 002 00
005430 2232N 07638W 6967 03093 9987 +091 +069 325039 039 028 003 00
005500 2230N 07638W 6967 03096 9985 +095 +069 325038 038 028 002 00
005530 2228N 07638W 6967 03097 9985 +095 +068 325038 038 027 002 00
005600 2226N 07638W 6969 03096 9991 +092 +070 328037 038 027 003 00
005630 2224N 07639W 6965 03104 9990 +095 +068 327037 037 025 003 00
005700 2222N 07639W 6973 03094 9993 +095 +068 319035 035 025 001 00
005730 2220N 07638W 6962 03118 9994 +099 +067 319034 035 /// /// 03
$$

[dixiebreeze]

Buoy pressure rising NE Bahamas: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

[hipshot]

:uarrow: that steering flow looks pretty ominous for SC/NC border. any one care to explain how it moves around that flow on the east side of it to turn N or NNE?

From the looks of that steering flow, it looks to me that it could just as easily go west. Just my non-pro opinion of course. I sure hope they are correct though in that it heads more east and further out to sea.

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 250059
97779 00564 50224 76600 30500 33037 10079 /3063
RMK AF302 1709A IRENE OB 10
SWS = 24 KTS
SW ENTRY

[dixiebreeze]

Buoy at Port Everglades channel/Ft. Lauderdale:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Freeport in the Bahamas, falling pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

[artist]

[Dave]

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like that shear on the west side has backed off somewhat, Irene looks beautiful on satellite in regards to its outflow.

[Aja]

"From the looks of that steering flow, it looks to me that it could just as easily go west. Just my non-pro opinion of course. I sure hope they are correct though in that it heads more east and further out to sea."

I have been seeing the same thing. That is why I asked earlier if there is any possibility that this storm will pull a HUGO and end up here in Charleston. Everyone else seem to agree with the computers that I am still not full faith with.