ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[artist]

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[GCANE]

GC do you have a high interest/ expertise in atmospheric thermodynamics (just curious based on the general theme of your posts)?

Yes Meteorcane, its an interest for many years.

Enjoy tracking hurricanes and severe weather.

How about yourself?

Entering my sophomore majoring in meteorology/math and am taking atmospheric thermo this coming semester already been exposed to some basic thermo in physics. I find it pretty interesting and enjoy your posts hopefully and hopefully can learn a good more about it this coming semester..

Thanks. Good luck in school.

[Dave]

[tailgater]

I'm not in line for this one but those west wobbles have to be a little nerve racking for those along Fla Northeast coast northward.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250247
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 35 20110825
023800 2457N 07653W 6969 03120 0009 +098 +060 051037 038 040 002 00
023830 2456N 07652W 6966 03120 0007 +099 +060 048037 037 041 000 03
023900 2455N 07650W 6966 03120 0010 +094 +062 049038 039 043 001 00
023930 2454N 07649W 6969 03115 0013 +089 +081 047043 045 043 001 00
024000 2452N 07647W 6971 03109 0010 +091 +071 047042 042 044 002 00
024030 2451N 07646W 6963 03120 0005 +095 +061 046045 047 045 000 00
024100 2450N 07645W 6970 03108 0000 +097 +061 046048 049 045 001 00
024130 2449N 07643W 6966 03110 9995 +100 +061 047050 051 045 001 03
024200 2448N 07642W 6968 03104 9987 +104 +058 048054 056 045 000 00
024230 2446N 07641W 6965 03107 9990 +099 +064 047056 056 045 001 00
024300 2445N 07639W 6969 03103 9984 +101 +061 048058 061 044 001 00
024330 2444N 07638W 6970 03095 9987 +098 +059 050062 063 044 001 00
024400 2443N 07637W 6969 03093 9977 +100 +078 052065 068 045 003 00
024430 2442N 07636W 6969 03089 9970 +102 +082 055068 072 045 004 00
024500 2440N 07634W 6961 03095 9959 +106 +077 045059 063 049 009 03
024530 2439N 07633W 6966 03086 9962 +101 +087 039054 055 052 008 00
024600 2438N 07632W 6971 03079 //// +070 //// 045054 058 052 019 01
024630 2436N 07631W 6962 03084 //// +068 //// 057063 069 054 027 01
024700 2435N 07630W 6964 03077 //// +066 //// 062067 069 056 015 01
024730 2434N 07629W 6974 03062 //// +077 //// 063069 070 050 009 01
$$

[CronkPSU]

they are disconcerting for sure...almost 90 minutes of a strong west and small northerly component

[Stephanie]

I'm not in line for this one but those west wobbles have to be a little nerve racking for those along Fla Northeast coast northward.

Extremely and I'm sure you've shared that anxiety during past Gulf hurricanes.

[cpdaman]

regarding the motion and timing it actually looks (even with wobbles ..so far) that it should pass right about over the 600z forecast point .....but the next point ...a la noonish tommorrow will depend on a more Nw/NNW motion ensuing starting in the wee hours ...that point i think we will miss to the west.

corny quoting my own post lol but follow me here. click" L/L" box and "tropical pts" box

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

in about 2 hours the storm will be very close to it's 6z forecast position from there it is supposed to move 1.8 degrees north andn 1 degree west over the following 12 hours....NOW

stewart mentioned in his disco that the ridging could hold on LONGER than the globals are forecasting....so THIS would be the time frame and forecast points that have the highest liklihood of missing IMO and possibly by a decent margin....also this would be enough to effect a bit more weather into the S. FL area if this were to happen. which could mean basically tropical storm conditions so just get ready .....the gusts out there are already decent...and the squalls tommorrow could be rather nasty

[viberama]

I'm not in line for this one but those west wobbles have to be a little nerve racking for those along Fla Northeast coast northward.

The wobbles are a little nerving but if you look at the recon thread, Irene is behaving exactly as the NHC track says. My prayers go out to the people in the Bahamas. Those wobbles could mean everything.

[Aja]

The new European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ecmwf) shows greater amplification of the trough which has resulted in Irene’s track shifting over 100 miles to the west http://gcaptain.com/hurricane-irene-upd ... torm?29940

[cpdaman]

another west wobble at 240 utc

[CrazyC83]

I would have dropped the intensity at the advisory. Recon only supports Category 2 right now, I would have put it at 90 kt.

[Hurricaneman]

looks like Isabel when that hit north carolina

[Dave]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250257
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 36 20110825
024800 2432N 07628W 6964 03072 //// +079 //// 055071 073 046 006 01
024830 2431N 07626W 6977 03053 9955 +083 //// 057069 071 048 007 01
024900 2430N 07625W 6961 03068 //// +080 //// 055069 071 051 009 01
024930 2428N 07624W 6969 03056 9939 +094 //// 057067 068 053 006 01
025000 2427N 07623W 6968 03054 9940 +089 //// 054067 068 051 005 01
025030 2426N 07622W 6967 03053 9930 +094 //// 052068 069 055 006 01
025100 2424N 07621W 6969 03043 9927 +091 //// 053069 070 056 002 05
025130 2423N 07620W 6967 03040 9921 +093 //// 052070 071 057 001 05
025200 2421N 07619W 6970 03037 9914 +095 +094 052072 073 054 001 03
025230 2420N 07618W 6967 03034 9904 +099 +091 049072 073 053 001 03
025300 2418N 07617W 6970 03024 9898 +102 +085 047075 076 055 002 00
025330 2417N 07616W 6966 03025 9894 +098 //// 047073 075 058 001 05
025400 2416N 07614W 6970 03016 9891 +096 //// 047070 072 057 001 05
025430 2415N 07613W 6966 03010 9883 +096 //// 049070 072 057 000 05
025500 2413N 07612W 6970 03005 9873 +099 //// 049072 074 057 000 35
025530 2412N 07611W 6969 02994 9867 +097 //// 048077 077 058 001 05
025600 2411N 07609W 6967 02990 9857 +099 //// 047076 078 058 002 05
025630 2410N 07608W 6966 02984 9862 +086 //// 047078 078 059 002 01
025700 2409N 07607W 6970 02971 9840 +097 //// 046079 079 062 002 01
025730 2407N 07606W 6967 02961 9822 +104 +102 044080 081 065 005 00
$$

[Steve H.]

Kinda weird. Avila just said that tropical storm force winds extend out to 255 miles out from the center, but the storm should stay 200-250 miles off the Florida east coast. Would that not warrant a TS watch on the EC of Central FL? Particularly since it is growing by the hour?

[viberama]

Kinda weird. Avila just said that tropical storm force winds extend out to 255 miles out from the center, but the storm should stay 200-250 miles off the Florida east coast. Would that not warrant a TS watch on the EC of Central FL? Particularly since it is growing by the hour?

Probably meant out from the center to the NorthEast of the storm

[Meteorcane]

Kinda weird. Avila just said that tropical storm force winds extend out to 255 miles out from the center, but the storm should stay 200-250 miles off the Florida east coast. Would that not warrant a TS watch on the EC of Central FL? Particularly since it is growing by the hour?

Western side windfield is not as expansive.

[cpdaman]

Kinda weird. Avila just said that tropical storm force winds extend out to 255 miles out from the center, but the storm should stay 200-250 miles off the Florida east coast. Would that not warrant a TS watch on the EC of Central FL? Particularly since it is growing by the hour?

i believe he means 255 in the NE quad...they usually mentioin the quad that has furthest expansion NW quad is prolly more like 175 or so (guessing)

but either way i think a tropical storm watch would be the right thing to do.....and not really a diff. decision...with little to lose

[Blown Away]

What responsibility the NHC has with millions of people in SFL less than 200 miles away from catastrophy and no warnings, that's confidence! Sitting in Hobe Sound you know there is a storm out there!