Global model runs discussion

[PTrackerLA]

Some disorganized tropical storms would at least be nice for us and of course our friends in Texas. I'm afraid we may go from very hot and dry to cooler and very dry this fall without tropical help.

[BigB0882]

I guess JB sees that Texas ridge moving for a while? That is the ONLY way a storm is coming into the Gulf, IMO. Not sure why he only gives it a week, must see it building back in or see things getting very troughy? I have my doubts about the ridge moving until mid September, to be honest. No reason, just a gut feeling.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agreed PT. We have had some storms around the last couple of days but in between it has been so hot and dry the sun and heat just suck the moisture right up from the ground before it can really help any. If we and especially texas dont get any tropical action withing the nex 3-4 at most im afraid our chances for some tropical systems help will be all but over.

[Flyinman]

If you look at the 16 day outlook, yes I am willing to believe anything at this point, it shows a low near the Gulf. We will see what happens:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[Big O]

In la-la land, 12z GFS shows a tropical cyclone impacting southern Texas. In addition, yesterday's Euro ensembles showed a relaxation of the death ridge at the 10-day range. Perhaps we are beginning to see the signs of a shift in tracks from the east coast to the GOM.

[Big O]

Here is the link:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal336.gif

[bexar]

seems like there is a 2-week lull in activity after Irene

[BigB0882]

In la-la land, 12z GFS shows a tropical cyclone impacting southern Texas. In addition, yesterday's Euro ensembles showed a relaxation of the death ridge at the 10-day range. Perhaps we are beginning to see the signs of a shift in tracks from the east coast to the GOM.

I remember when the models were 10+ days out on Irene they showed the death ridge retreating and even had Irene going as far West as Houston. 10+ days later and that ridge is STILL holding strong and again the models say it might weaken in 10 more days. I can't believe it. I know it has to eventually let go of its grip but I am really beginning to think it will not be until mid to late September.

[bigdan35]

Hopefully you good people can at least get some rain soon











http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[ROCK]

that ridge will go bye bye soon enough...climo speaking its going to start getting hammered by short waves in the next few weeks....I just hope I can survive that long...I have not seen rain in 3 weeks now. and that rain was not enough to get the ground wet.

[BigB0882]

I have no doubt the ridge will eventually go away, it has to, our atmosphere isn't stagnant. However, the models have CONSISTENTLY shown it moving in the 10 day time frame and it never has. So I just laugh in the face of any model showing that at this point. Eventually they will be right, but we have no reason to think it will be this time.

[HurricaneFan]

What are the models saying about the Tropical Wave that is just now emerging the west coast of Africa?
Will it follow 98L and 90L out to sea or will it reach the Caribbean?
And how much is it expected to develop in the next several days?

[PTrackerLA]

Well remember last week the GFS was breaking down the ridge and hitting Houston with Irene. I'll believe it when I see it but I'm really hoping the Tropics can get involved somehow. We were lucky enough to get absolutely blasted with severe storms last Thursday and some showers around this week. Drought conditions have gone from Exceptional to "only" Severe here but I know further west has not been so lucky at all.

[HouTXmetro]

Any precedent for this drought extending through next summer?

[HurricaneFan]

I red in another thread that the NAO is turning positive in the next few days.Are the models showing the ridge strengthening any time soon in the Eastern Atlantic?
If so,how long will it last and how far west will future storms move comming from the Cape Verde Area?(after future Jose moves out).

[Portastorm]

Any precedent for this drought extending through next summer?

Sure ... if we going into a moderate Nina this winter, look for continued below to well below normal precip for the Southern Plains and Texas.

Granted the current forecast suggests neutral to a weak Nina for this winter but it could happen.

[ROCK]

looks like the new GFS sees a caribbean cruiser at 276


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Thank God that's very long term... It shows a strong hurricane passing near my area on September 7.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

[HurricaneWarning92]

Damn again around that area?! these guys dont seem to get a break..

[cycloneye]

12z GFS continues to show the Caribbean Cruiser. See the complete run at loop.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M