ATL: IRENE - Models
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
clfenwi wrote:12Z NOGAPS 84h
http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/2166/082512znogaps84h.gif
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Complete loop
Oh jeez that looks bad for NJ/NY/DE
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- Stephanie
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Thank you everyone for the images you are sharing with us and thank you Ivanhater for the reminder of the quotes!
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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Is this correct - land doesn't weaken storms as fast at higher latitudes due to baroclinic influences?
It depends how the TC interacts with the Trough, and the TC orientation to the over all multi-level flow. For example last year Hurricane Igor actually strengthened from a 65 kt (75 mph) system to a 75 kt (85 mph) system because of baroclinicity at a high latitude just before reaching Newfoundland, and becoming fully extratropical.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: Re:
pgoss11 wrote:RevDodd wrote:Looks like NOGAPS weakens that second trough quite a bit.
thinks so too.. looks like lf would be Wilmington
A Wilmington landfall gives it more time to weaken over eastern North Carolina.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
webke wrote:
That's getting to close for comfort,
Yes sir it is.I hope Haley is watching this.
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0z ECMWF 75 hr
<http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=25.9&lon=-76.8&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0>
Hope this link works
Guess not, Should have been 0z ECMWF landfall at Atlantic Beach NC,
<http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=25.9&lon=-76.8&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0>
Hope this link works
Guess not, Should have been 0z ECMWF landfall at Atlantic Beach NC,
Last edited by Okibeach on Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- southerngale
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:That GFS run is slightly to the right of the previous one? Seems quite reasonable to me.
I haven't done a side by side comparison for the whole run, but I believe it only starts out slightly to the right.
Here's a comparison of the 6z GFS at 54 hours and the 12z GFS at 48 hours. Almost identical.
6z GFS at 54 hours
12z GFS 48 hours
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
12Z HWRF wind swath Bit of a shift to the right compared to 06Z.
Complete loop
54h landfall ivo Ocracoke, then back to sea IVO Nags Head. Second landfall on Long Island at 75h.
Complete loop
54h landfall ivo Ocracoke, then back to sea IVO Nags Head. Second landfall on Long Island at 75h.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
So take the middle from the HWRF and the NOGAPS and that's where Irene is probably going to go.
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Re:
HWRF, along with GFDL, has actually been a left outlier for a while.
Now this isn't directed toward anyone in particular, but I feel some folks may be getting caught up too much in little model shifts from run to run. We're talking about changes of a few miles one way or the other every six hours. Heck, I could bike from one end of the 60hr forecast envelope to the other in a day. In the grand scheme of things, the results will be the similar regardless of what track among those within the forecast envelope Irene takes. We'll just have to wait and see what small, isolated area gets the biggest impact.
Now this isn't directed toward anyone in particular, but I feel some folks may be getting caught up too much in little model shifts from run to run. We're talking about changes of a few miles one way or the other every six hours. Heck, I could bike from one end of the 60hr forecast envelope to the other in a day. In the grand scheme of things, the results will be the similar regardless of what track among those within the forecast envelope Irene takes. We'll just have to wait and see what small, isolated area gets the biggest impact.
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- Jevo
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Re: Re:
ncweatherwizard wrote:HWRF, along with GFDL, has actually been a left outlier for a while.
Now this isn't directed toward anyone in particular, but I feel some folks may be getting caught up too much in little model shifts from run to run. We're talking about changes of a few miles one way or the other every six hours. Heck, I could bike from one end of the 60hr forecast envelope to the other in a day. In the grand scheme of things, the results will be the similar regardless of what track among those within the forecast envelope Irene takes. We'll just have to wait and see what small, isolated area gets the biggest impact.
Very well put NC.. I even updated my signature to try to press the point... A hurricane is not a Dot or a Line
and without further Adeu
12z Euro +24
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
- Jevo
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
12Z GFDL laid down a track similar to that of the 06Z, just a bit quicker after the 54h landfall.
Wind swath
Wind swath
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