ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

It looks like the ERC is almost complete and she is about to go into another strenghtening phase. Even as she weakens around the NYC area...the stronger she gets now, the more water she pushes and that will not go down as we saw with Katrina, Ivan and Ike.

[mph101]

I haven't thought this storm looked all that classic hurricane any of the time. Looking back at Satellite photos of Floyd or Hugo in the same general areas they didn't look near as ragged, much more wet and built cloud tops around well developed eye. This Irene has looked ragged all the time thus far. I realize there has been some shear.
The entire storm looks ragged, not saying its not dangerous.
Of course its a major threat but its in a fairly favorable enivornment and its not bombing out nor is is shaped like any of the classic storms that are epic in structure so far.

I am wondering if they (government, priavate sector) are not seeding it or doing some type of experiment to disrupt it?

Whatever the reason if its in a more prime enivornment now with water temps and away from the trough then as it moves north maybe it will not be as dreadful as the media is saying? Those factors will mess it up for certain in its structure.

[NC George]

Their house was almost flooded by storm surge by Isabel and I am trying to tell them this is going to be a much bigger storm. Am I wrong? They are saying that the house, built in early 1900s has never been flooded so their thinking is that it will never flood. I remember people thinking that during Katrina in MS, because Camille didnt get them. And they were very very wrong.

A bunch of people in eastern NC had the same idea before Floyd. So they aren't in the 100 year flood plain. That doesn't mean a 500 year flood won't get them.

[CrazyC83]

Even a lower-category hurricane can still be VERY dangerous.

I am thinking Irene will be a Cat 2 when it crosses the Outer Banks and a Cat 1 at final landfall, similar to Gloria in 1985.

[wxman57]

Ok gang quick question. With the westward shift of the track and now the entire SE coast of NC inside the radii of the hurricane force winds, even on the west side, why are there no hurricane watches extended to the SC/NC border at least? 1 west wobble from the projected path and the SC/NC border has the eye. Not making much sense.

I only show hurricane force winds from about Wilmington northward. Winds near the SC border would be in the 45-55 mph range (sustained). Hurricane force winds reach the NC coast around 5PM EDT on Saturday.

[wxmann_91]

Before we talk about NYC inundation and $100 billion damages we should note that there is a greater than average uncertainty in the track and especially in the landfall point. Traditionally, hurricanes that have hit LI while travelling NNE do not deal heavy damage to NYC proper because of the angle of the coastline. The synoptic setup here does not favor a N or NNW turn that could bring this straight up the Hudson. And I think emergency managers are going to think very hard before issuing a evac order to the biggest city in the U.S...not exactly the smartest thing to do before modeling stabilizes on a devastating NYC hit.

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

For some reason I am having trouble finding out if people think this is going to strengthen or not? It seems pretty lopsided, but do they expect that to change, because that could be a major factor in damage to east coast. I have been on the west side of MANY storms and it was pretty calm compared to the same distance from the center on the east side. Hurricane Dennis was a beast when it came through and I was on the west eyewall almost and we just got minimal damage while over just 25 miles from me got hammered. I have family on a very low lying small island in the Chesapeake (Deal Island, MD) and they are not worried. Their house was almost flooded by storm surge by Isabel and I am trying to tell them this is going to be a much bigger storm. Am I wrong? They are saying that the house, built in early 1900s has never been flooded so their thinking is that it will never flood. I remember people thinking that during Katrina in MS, because Camille didnt get them. And they were very very wrong.

There is one significant difference from Isabel: angle of approach. That means the storm surge flooding may not be as high, and would likely peak AFTER the storm being on the back side.

[SNOW_JOKE]

That would be quite a frontpage picture. The statue of liberty island underwater being just 7ft above sea level. And heights for Irene's surge going for 15ft at peak. I don't think there'd be anyone foolhardy enough to see it happen though.

http://www.topozone.com/map.asp?lon=-74 ... atum=nad83

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

A Category 2 impact in the main islands of the Bahamas and it seems they fared very well according to CNN - why do some of these islands do a lot better?

They prepare a lot better than in other places.

The local foliage is mostly native and suited to tropical conditions (i.e. flexible trunks, no huge overhanging trees with shallow roots), the buildings there are all poured concrete or filled-block with non-gabled roof, the locals know they live in the tropics. And as my boss (a native Bahamian working here) intimated - "They just don't rely on having utilities like we do. They expect outages and are already prepared".

[Dave]

222
URNT15 KNHC 251825
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 18 20110825
181530 2751N 07633W 6964 03051 9955 +079 +028 125083 084 061 010 00
181600 2751N 07635W 6967 03047 9952 +080 +028 121086 089 062 008 00
181630 2752N 07638W 6973 03043 9966 +071 +028 120082 084 062 011 00
181700 2752N 07641W 6967 03049 9963 +071 +028 119081 085 062 012 00
181730 2752N 07643W 6967 03047 9965 +070 +028 120083 084 063 013 00
181800 2752N 07646W 6965 03049 9963 +070 +028 118082 085 063 015 00
181830 2753N 07649W 6977 03039 9949 +084 +029 116079 080 062 018 00
181900 2753N 07651W 6960 03056 9945 +086 +029 114081 082 060 008 00
181930 2753N 07654W 6968 03054 9952 +083 +029 112075 078 059 009 00
182000 2753N 07657W 6966 03053 9940 +092 +030 113077 078 062 014 00
182030 2754N 07700W 6967 03053 9958 +079 +030 109079 080 062 017 00
182100 2754N 07702W 6970 03047 9964 +074 +030 109081 082 060 012 00
182130 2754N 07705W 6960 03061 9967 +074 +030 108083 084 059 013 00
182200 2754N 07708W 6967 03049 9961 +076 +030 103084 087 058 011 00
182230 2755N 07711W 6968 03051 9963 +075 +030 101083 084 058 012 00
182300 2755N 07713W 6968 03055 9968 +073 +030 096083 085 059 013 00
182330 2755N 07716W 6964 03060 9958 +084 +030 094077 078 059 012 00
182400 2755N 07719W 6966 03056 9947 +093 +030 096072 073 058 007 00
182430 2756N 07721W 6967 03055 9957 +084 +030 094068 069 059 007 00
182500 2756N 07724W 6963 03062 9946 +093 +030 094065 066 057 008 00
$$
;

[cheezyWXguy]

I haven't thought this storm looked all that classic hurricane any of the time. Looking back at Satellite photos of Floyd or Hugo in the same general areas they didn't look near as ragged, much more wet and built cloud tops around well developed eye. This Irene has looked ragged all the time thus far. I realize there has been some shear.
The entire storm looks ragged, not saying its not dangerous.
Of course its a major threat but its in a fairly favorable enivornment and its not bombing out nor is is shaped like any of the classic storms that are epic in structure so far.

I am wondering if they (government, priavate sector) are not seeding it or doing some type of experiment to disrupt it?

Whatever the reason if its in a more prime enivornment now with water temps and away from the trough then as it moves north maybe it will not be as dreadful as the media is saying? Those factors will mess it up for certain in its structure.

The reason it has looked ragged much of its life is because of land interaction early on, as well as the recent ewrc. Irene has had a double wind maximum since it was a strong tropical storm and therefore the cycle was imminent.

[Stephanie]

For some reason I am having trouble finding out if people think this is going to strengthen or not? It seems pretty lopsided, but do they expect that to change, because that could be a major factor in damage to east coast. I have been on the west side of MANY storms and it was pretty calm compared to the same distance from the center on the east side. Hurricane Dennis was a beast when it came through and I was on the west eyewall almost and we just got minimal damage while over just 25 miles from me got hammered. I have family on a very low lying small island in the Chesapeake (Deal Island, MD) and they are not worried. Their house was almost flooded by storm surge by Isabel and I am trying to tell them this is going to be a much bigger storm. Am I wrong? They are saying that the house, built in early 1900s has never been flooded so their thinking is that it will never flood. I remember people thinking that during Katrina in MS, because Camille didnt get them. And they were very very wrong.

See Dean4Storms post above you and look at the flood surge link posted in this thread and the Irene Northeast or Mid Atlantic thread. That should tell you all your family will need to know about their home on Deal Island.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Anybody else watching the lauderdale-by-the-sea webcam and watching those 3 yahoos swimming? I hope they have at least surfboards. Here comes the lifeguards....

[Janie2006]

For some reason I am having trouble finding out if people think this is going to strengthen or not? It seems pretty lopsided, but do they expect that to change, because that could be a major factor in damage to east coast. I have been on the west side of MANY storms and it was pretty calm compared to the same distance from the center on the east side. Hurricane Dennis was a beast when it came through and I was on the west eyewall almost and we just got minimal damage while over just 25 miles from me got hammered. I have family on a very low lying small island in the Chesapeake (Deal Island, MD) and they are not worried. Their house was almost flooded by storm surge by Isabel and I am trying to tell them this is going to be a much bigger storm. Am I wrong? They are saying that the house, built in early 1900s has never been flooded so their thinking is that it will never flood. I remember people thinking that during Katrina in MS, because Camille didnt get them. And they were very very wrong.

It's always better safe than sorry IMO. Intensity is very difficult to forecast many times. Synoptics and climatology indicate that Irene would logically be weaker by that point, but that's assuming quite a lot. Too much for my comfort.

You're right. During Katrina some people stayed in their homes because "Camille didn't get us"....some of them ended up dead. That's not hyperbole, that's a fact. Irene is no Katrina, but if you're in a flood or storm surge zone I'd consider preparing the home and maybe taking a short vacation.

[Riptide]

Anybody else watching the lauderdale-by-the-sea webcam and watching those 3 yahoos swimming? I hope they have at least surfboards. Here comes the lifeguards....

Eh, they will be okay but ripcurrents could come about.

[wxman57]

Before we talk about NYC inundation and $100 billion damages we should note that there is a greater than average uncertainty in the track and especially in the landfall point. Traditionally, hurricanes that have hit LI while travelling NNE do not deal heavy damage to NYC proper because of the angle of the coastline. The synoptic setup here does not favor a N or NNW turn that could bring this straight up the Hudson. And I think emergency managers are going to think very hard before issuing a evac order to the biggest city in the U.S...not exactly the smartest thing to do before modeling stabilizes on a devastating NYC hit.

Actually, I think the track confidence is greater than average here. Irene has already made the northward turn, the hardest part of the track to determine where it will occur from several days ago. Model agreement is outstanding now. We almost never see such a tight clustering this far out. The only real question now is precisely where on LI the center will cross the coast. Model trends are toward the western part of the Island, a worst case scenario.

Those people on LI are used to what they think are hurricane hits but are actually grazing events. This is the real thing.

[psyclone]

Ok gang quick question. With the westward shift of the track and now the entire SE coast of NC inside the radii of the hurricane force winds, even on the west side, why are there no hurricane watches extended to the SC/NC border at least? 1 west wobble from the projected path and the SC/NC border has the eye. Not making much sense.

it would not be surprising to see hurricane watches extended southward. If i were in Wilmington, I would be preparing for a substantial hit. there's just no wiggle room there at the present time should the storm trend a bit west. Hope for the best but prepare and good luck.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SunnyThoughts]

Ok gang quick question. With the westward shift of the track and now the entire SE coast of NC inside the radii of the hurricane force winds, even on the west side, why are there no hurricane watches extended to the SC/NC border at least? 1 west wobble from the projected path and the SC/NC border has the eye. Not making much sense.

I heard on the weather channel a little while ago that watches/warnings (whichever are needed) will be going up in the next update for the mid-atlantic states. (Not exactly sure which states that encompasses) Probably tropical storm watches and warnings for some and hurricanes watches and warnings for others. Just stay tuned for the next update in within the next hour or two.

[Dave]