ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252108
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 08 20110825
205900 2630N 07805W 7514 02360 9844 +153 +146 317075 078 061 023 03
205930 2631N 07803W 7515 02350 9839 +145 //// 322069 076 /// /// 05
210000 2632N 07801W 7489 02366 9817 +153 //// 326050 053 /// /// 05
210030 2633N 07759W 7521 02326 9810 +157 +160 319049 050 /// /// 03
210100 2634N 07757W 7522 02321 9805 +157 +160 315049 050 /// /// 03
210130 2635N 07755W 7524 02313 9798 +161 +156 306052 053 /// /// 03
210200 2636N 07753W 7520 02311 9786 +168 +150 306055 055 /// /// 03
210230 2637N 07751W 7519 02307 9780 +168 +147 308056 057 /// /// 03
210300 2638N 07749W 7523 02298 9771 +170 +146 307058 059 /// /// 03
210330 2639N 07747W 7520 02292 9756 +179 +140 308060 061 /// /// 03
210400 2640N 07745W 7519 02288 9751 +177 +140 310058 059 /// /// 03
210430 2642N 07743W 7521 02277 9743 +176 +142 310057 058 /// /// 03
210500 2643N 07741W 7520 02270 9738 +172 +146 310057 057 /// /// 03
210530 2644N 07739W 7520 02262 9724 +178 +146 309059 060 /// /// 03
210600 2645N 07737W 7520 02253 9708 +183 +148 308060 060 /// /// 03
210630 2646N 07735W 7520 02241 9696 +184 +147 310061 062 /// /// 03
210700 2647N 07732W 7519 02232 9686 +184 +143 310063 063 /// /// 03
210730 2648N 07730W 7521 02220 9667 +193 +143 307062 063 /// /// 03
210800 2649N 07728W 7517 02212 9660 +185 +146 307066 068 /// /// 03
210830 2651N 07726W 7521 02193 9641 +189 +151 307063 065 /// /// 03

[Raebie]

Where in NC is landfall now projected?

[bzukajo]

How is inland NC in terms of trees? We had roughly similar gusts here about 60 miles inland in the houston area during Ike and they caused extensive tree damage

Remember that well. This is also my largest concern. We have such a thick canopy here in New England!

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 252106
XXAA 75218 99260 70787 08068 99996 27232 30040 00532 ///// /////
92655 21606 31551 85387 18608 32051 88999 77999
31313 09608 82047
51515 10167 07674
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 03
62626 REL 2601N07871W 204743 SPG 2597N07867W 205126 WL150 30041 0
85 DLM WND 32050 996742 MBL WND 30043=
XXBB 75218 99260 70787 08068 00996 27232 11988 26627 22956 23611
33951 23208 44928 21806 55742 13423
21212 00996 30040 11961 29542 22948 30046 33942 31554 44929 31047
55923 31553 66908 31552 77904 31560 88900 31561 99886 32054 11851
31550 22834 33054 33742 32558
31313 09608 82047
51515 10167 07674
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 03
62626 REL 2601N07871W 204743 SPG 2597N07867W 205126 WL150 30041 0
85 DLM WND 32050 996742 MBL WND 30043=

[Hogweed]

948mb latest VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 21:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 20:59:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°03'N 77°09'W (27.05N 77.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 138 miles (222 km) to the N (5°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,653m (8,704ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 88kts (~ 101.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 100kts (From the SE at ~ 115.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 948mb (27.99 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 100kts (~ 115.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:52:20Z

---

I make that 13 degrees from last VDM

[Cookie]

Aug 25 (Reuters) - New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on Thursday declared a state of emergency to prepare for the potential impact of Hurricane Irene, which could hit the state this weekend.

The formal declaration allows the state to aid counties, cities and towns "more effectively and quickly," get help from the national Emergency Management Assistance Compact and get federal help earlier, the Democratic governor said in a statement.

"We are communicating with our federal and local partners to track the storm and to plan a coordinated response, and we will deploy resources as needed to the areas expected to be hit the hardest," Cuomo said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/ ... O820110825

[Dave]

NOAA 2

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252115
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 35 20110825
210530 2650N 07725W 6969 02831 9640 +143 +064 306065 065 051 001 03
210600 2649N 07726W 6964 02844 9650 +145 +064 307063 064 /// /// 03
210630 2648N 07728W 6967 02854 9665 +142 +065 306060 060 /// /// 03
210700 2646N 07729W 6965 02870 9681 +140 +064 306062 064 052 002 00
210730 2645N 07730W 6972 02866 9682 +145 +064 307065 066 052 001 00
210800 2644N 07731W 6967 02884 9694 +143 +064 307066 067 051 002 00
210830 2643N 07732W 6967 02888 9705 +142 +063 306063 065 051 001 00
210900 2642N 07733W 6970 02893 9713 +141 +062 304061 062 050 001 03
210930 2641N 07735W 6969 02901 9718 +144 +061 305060 060 049 001 00
211000 2640N 07736W 6966 02912 9719 +148 +061 302058 058 049 000 00
211030 2639N 07737W 6970 02915 9730 +147 +062 301058 058 049 000 00
211100 2638N 07738W 6966 02925 9741 +141 +062 302057 057 049 001 00
211130 2637N 07740W 6970 02922 9750 +136 +063 301055 056 048 001 00
211200 2637N 07740W 6970 02922 9755 +138 +063 298054 055 048 000 00
211230 2635N 07742W 6967 02938 9762 +135 +062 302056 057 047 000 03
211300 2633N 07743W 6966 02944 9770 +133 +062 304056 057 046 000 00
211330 2632N 07744W 6969 02944 9774 +134 +063 302055 056 044 001 03
211400 2631N 07746W 6967 02950 9776 +136 +063 302057 058 046 001 03
211430 2630N 07747W 6967 02956 9777 +140 +063 302057 058 053 002 00
211500 2629N 07748W 6966 02959 9781 +138 +063 297058 058 054 001 00
$$
;

[Aja]

NE Quadrant is usually the worst part of the storm typically, correct? How far on the west side should tropical force winds be felt on an educated guess with this storm, based on Irene's size? I haven't found any Florida inland cams for current conditions to get an idea as Irene passes.
_________________
For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS Websites.

[wsquared77]

Where in NC is landfall now projected?

Based on 5p.m. NHC track, projected now between Emerald Isle and Atlantic Beach, then up between Newport and Morehead City, then across to Oriental. Closest point to my house about 21 miles according to http://www.stormcarib.com/closest.cgi


Disclaimer: I am definitely not a meteorologist so don't listen to anything I say! Refer to NHC or your local media!

[littlevince]

AF306

000
URNT12 KNHC 252110
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/20:59:30Z
B. 27 deg 03 min N
077 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2653 m
D. 88 kt
E. 054 deg 19 nm
F. 143 deg 100 kt
G. 053 deg 23 nm
H. 948 mb
I. 11 C / 3049 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 2109A IRENE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 100 KT NE QUAD 20:52:20Z

[BUD]

Where in NC is landfall now projected?

very near Camp Lejeune and Morehead city

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252118
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 09 20110825
210900 2652N 07725W 7521 02176 9620 +193 +151 310066 066 /// /// 03
210930 2653N 07723W 7520 02161 9606 +190 +136 308069 070 /// /// 03
211000 2655N 07722W 7521 02141 9584 +189 +160 304066 067 /// /// 03
211030 2656N 07720W 7520 02122 9564 +188 +161 301066 066 /// /// 03
211100 2658N 07718W 7523 02095 9537 +189 +177 303064 067 /// /// 03
211130 2659N 07717W 7515 02086 9516 +186 +191 302041 052 /// /// 03
211200 2701N 07715W 7488 02108 9505 +188 +188 300025 026 /// /// 03
211230 2703N 07714W 7543 02038 9495 +194 +188 300021 022 030 001 00
211300 2704N 07713W 7527 02047 9491 +192 +172 318012 015 026 000 00
211330 2706N 07711W 7526 02046 9485 +193 +172 352006 007 025 002 03
211400 2707N 07709W 7522 02042 9479 +194 +170 208004 007 025 000 03
211430 2708N 07707W 7525 02035 9473 +194 +176 174012 014 024 001 00
211500 2710N 07706W 7505 02057 9471 +196 +176 164022 025 028 000 00
211530 2711N 07704W 7513 02051 9476 +191 +180 156032 035 034 000 00
211600 2713N 07702W 7521 02049 9481 +195 +181 151044 046 042 000 00
211630 2714N 07701W 7524 02056 9494 +192 +180 147053 059 055 003 00
211700 2716N 07659W 7530 02063 9518 +183 +181 146071 075 063 005 00
211730 2717N 07657W 7532 02082 9539 +182 +182 147076 077 070 014 03
211800 2718N 07656W 7515 02119 9558 +180 +181 146077 079 078 016 00
211830 2720N 07654W 7531 02116 9579 +177 +182 147079 082 085 016 03

[tolakram]

30 frame live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Eye looks to be clearing out, finally.

30 frame live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

you can customize these loops:

Code: Select all

VISIBLE
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-77&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=30

IR
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-77&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=30&palette=spect.pal


[Tstormwatcher]

I will be on the west side with the current track but it could easily shift a bit west and put my area in the path or the east of the eye. Am getting a bit worried right now.

[yzerfan]

Space Coast sees an influx of surfers for the weekend:

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/201 ... t|Business

Surfers from all across the South are starting to flock to Brevard because the storm that's expected to pummel northern parts of the East Coast could create 6- to 12-foot swells off Space Coast beaches. And that should create an economic splash for the dozens of businesses frequented by surfers.

"They are coming from everywhere -- the Panhandle, Miami, Texas, Alabama," Max said. "They're going to spend a lot of money. They're going to fill up a lot of the mom-and-pop hotels. They're going to go to all the restaurants."

[Fego]

My sisters live in Atlantic City and logically they are very worried about Irene. I urged them to evacuate as soon as possible. What are the chances that Atlantic City will experiment cat 2? winds?

[Dave]

NOAA2

[Meteorcane]

Pressure seems to be still dropping a little and based on lack of multiple wind maxima maybe some decent intensification is about to occur.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Discovery's Mega Disasters short-documentary puts Irene into perspective. It talks about how the storm surge from even a CAT 2 Hurricane flooding the subways wouldn't result in the closure of the infastructure, but the complete overhaul of the lines due to the salt-water corrosion and impurities/sewage that would result in such a catastrophic flooding scenario.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjWVpY4_sPM

For anyone who is trying to persuade those in NYC or NY State as a whole to evac and they aren't taking this seriously (assuming its going to be something akin to a Nor'easter) this may wake them up a little.