ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

[SNOW_JOKE]

During the equinoxes the geostationary satellites pass through the earth's shadow. Because of this the transponders of the satellite are switched off to conserve battery power, so some images will not be available. - Met Office.

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 260544
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41010 LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST BY LATE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[JonathanBelles]

743
URNT15 KNHC 260550
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 28 20110826
054030 2709N 07836W 6969 03074 9959 +095 +087 299048 049 041 000 00
054100 2710N 07834W 6967 03076 9959 +095 +087 301049 049 041 000 00
054130 2710N 07832W 6962 03081 9956 +095 +086 299047 048 040 001 00
054200 2710N 07829W 6965 03078 9953 +099 +084 297046 047 042 002 00
054230 2711N 07827W 6962 03076 9949 +100 +083 296046 046 043 001 00
054300 2711N 07824W 6981 03053 9946 +101 +084 291048 048 042 003 00
054330 2711N 07821W 6963 03073 9941 +103 +085 291048 048 043 002 00
054400 2712N 07819W 6974 03059 9945 +098 +085 288047 047 047 002 00
054430 2712N 07816W 6957 03078 9960 +086 //// 286051 053 060 004 05
054500 2712N 07814W 6969 03063 9941 +097 +095 286053 053 044 000 03
054530 2713N 07811W 6955 03075 9939 +096 +090 286054 054 050 005 03
054600 2713N 07808W 6969 03056 9934 +100 +086 284054 054 046 001 03
054630 2714N 07805W 6966 03057 9932 +098 +086 280055 056 048 000 03
054700 2714N 07802W 6970 03048 9929 +097 +088 276055 056 049 001 00
054730 2714N 07759W 6962 03057 9929 +096 +090 274057 057 048 000 00
054800 2715N 07756W 6967 03050 9930 +093 +091 270058 059 049 001 00
054830 2715N 07753W 6968 03045 9931 +090 //// 267058 058 050 003 01
054900 2716N 07751W 6967 03042 9929 +089 //// 267058 059 050 002 01
054930 2716N 07748W 6970 03039 9925 +091 //// 269059 060 051 001 01
055000 2717N 07745W 6961 03048 9923 +092 //// 267063 064 051 002 01
$$

[Texashawk]

Oh, that's already starting... thought it wasn't that time yet.

During the equinoxes the geostationary satellites pass through the earth's shadow. Because of this the transponders of the satellite are switched off to conserve battery power, so some images will not be available. - Met Office.

[Dave]

[JonathanBelles]

144
URNT15 KNHC 260600
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 29 20110826
055030 2717N 07742W 6972 03030 9921 +090 //// 263063 064 052 000 01
055100 2717N 07739W 6975 03028 9920 +090 //// 261062 063 052 003 01
055130 2718N 07736W 6964 03039 9915 +090 //// 261064 066 052 000 05
055200 2718N 07733W 6967 03034 9911 +095 //// 260067 068 052 001 01
055230 2719N 07730W 6964 03037 9910 +095 //// 258069 069 052 001 01
055300 2719N 07726W 6967 03033 9910 +095 //// 255068 068 052 002 01
055330 2719N 07723W 6963 03035 9908 +095 //// 253069 070 052 007 01
055400 2720N 07720W 6968 03033 9909 +090 //// 251071 073 052 004 01
055430 2720N 07717W 6961 03036 9909 +093 //// 250070 072 051 004 01
055500 2721N 07714W 6985 03011 9906 +098 //// 247071 073 052 003 01
055530 2721N 07711W 6962 03040 9899 +104 +102 245070 070 052 001 00
055600 2721N 07709W 6967 03033 9901 +103 +096 244072 073 051 003 00
055630 2722N 07706W 6966 03035 9897 +106 +093 241073 074 053 001 00
055700 2722N 07703W 6967 03034 9894 +110 +091 239074 075 053 002 00
055730 2723N 07700W 6967 03036 9896 +110 +088 239076 076 054 001 00
055800 2723N 07657W 6967 03037 9898 +109 +088 239077 077 053 003 00
055830 2723N 07654W 6967 03039 9900 +109 +088 237076 077 053 002 00
055900 2724N 07652W 6969 03036 9904 +105 +088 235077 078 052 002 00
055930 2724N 07649W 6967 03039 9902 +107 +089 234077 077 053 001 00
060000 2724N 07646W 6963 03044 9904 +106 +089 232076 077 053 000 00
$$

[Dave]

[Aja]

With recon finding the winds which would support a 120mph hurricane 100 miles away from the center, is that a major sign of an EWRC

So to get a better understanding of what this is talking about, is this what mets are talking about or mean when they talk about double eye wall?
For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS Websites.

[DIwestender]

If this hurricane behaves as expected according to the NHC track, will the Outer Banks fare better than the Bolivar peninsula did during IKE? The storms seem similar, but are the Outer Banks better protected or of higher elevation? The reason I ask is because I know that at least some of the residents there are not evacuating and I have that iconic post-IKE image in my mind (the one with only 1 house standing) and I am very concerned about what might happen to those that have decided to stay behind.

[JonathanBelles]

805
URNT15 KNHC 260610
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 30 20110826
060030 2725N 07643W 6967 03040 9911 +101 +089 231077 078 053 002 00
060100 2725N 07640W 6968 03041 9911 +104 +089 229078 078 054 001 00
060130 2726N 07638W 6967 03044 9910 +107 +088 228077 078 054 002 00
060200 2726N 07635W 6966 03047 9913 +105 +088 226079 080 054 003 00
060230 2726N 07632W 6970 03044 9912 +106 +089 225078 078 054 001 00
060300 2727N 07629W 6965 03051 9915 +105 +089 223077 078 055 004 00
060330 2727N 07627W 6970 03044 9916 +105 +089 223077 078 054 003 00
060400 2727N 07624W 6967 03052 9926 +100 +089 223079 079 053 001 00
060430 2728N 07621W 6969 03052 9934 +094 +090 222081 081 051 002 00
060500 2728N 07619W 6978 03044 9929 +099 +091 221079 080 051 004 00
060530 2728N 07616W 6963 03058 9927 +101 +090 219079 080 052 002 00
060600 2729N 07614W 6967 03055 9930 +100 +090 218079 079 052 004 00
060630 2729N 07611W 6967 03058 9933 +099 +091 218081 083 055 012 00
060700 2729N 07609W 6969 03058 //// +063 //// 211084 087 055 013 01
060730 2730N 07606W 6972 03051 //// +061 //// 210088 089 054 022 01
060800 2730N 07604W 6977 03051 //// +062 //// 210085 085 053 012 01
060830 2730N 07602W 6961 03072 //// +085 //// 210085 085 051 006 01
060900 2730N 07559W 6967 03065 9955 +088 //// 208087 087 052 004 01
060930 2731N 07557W 6967 03069 9956 +090 //// 208087 088 052 003 01
061000 2731N 07555W 6970 03067 9956 +092 +092 210087 087 051 003 00
$$

[Dave]

[summersquall]

Aja - EWRC stands for "Eye Wall Replacement Cycle"

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle

"Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are located in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm can re-intensify."

[JonathanBelles]

103
URNT15 KNHC 260620
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 31 20110826
061030 2731N 07552W 6963 03075 9956 +093 +090 209085 087 048 004 03
061100 2733N 07551W 6965 03075 9956 +092 //// 207082 083 /// /// 05
061130 2735N 07551W 6966 03070 9955 +092 //// 206080 080 050 003 05
061200 2736N 07553W 6969 03063 9949 +093 //// 206080 081 053 002 05
061230 2737N 07555W 6967 03062 //// +077 //// 203081 081 055 003 01
061300 2738N 07556W 6967 03061 9951 +087 //// 202081 081 054 006 01
061330 2740N 07558W 6966 03058 9944 +090 //// 206082 083 053 009 01
061400 2741N 07559W 6969 03046 //// +066 //// 205086 088 054 011 01
061430 2742N 07601W 6968 03052 //// +073 //// 211081 084 055 012 01
061500 2744N 07602W 6965 03048 //// +081 //// 213080 081 055 011 01
061530 2745N 07604W 6964 03055 //// +087 //// 211078 079 053 011 01
061600 2746N 07605W 6967 03044 9917 +098 //// 209077 078 053 003 01
061630 2748N 07607W 6974 03036 //// +089 //// 211077 077 054 003 01
061700 2749N 07608W 6972 03034 9911 +098 //// 211079 080 055 006 01
061730 2750N 07609W 6962 03040 //// +095 //// 211079 080 055 007 01
061800 2751N 07611W 6971 03028 //// +096 //// 208079 079 053 005 01
061830 2753N 07612W 6967 03029 9894 +098 //// 207080 080 053 003 01
061900 2754N 07614W 6969 03024 9888 +105 //// 209082 082 056 005 01
061930 2755N 07615W 6965 03023 9886 +102 //// 209083 084 057 003 01
062000 2757N 07617W 6965 03018 9888 +097 //// 208084 085 054 004 01
$$

[gotoman38]

If this hurricane behaves as expected according to the NHC track, will the Outer Banks fare better than the Bolivar peninsula did during IKE? The storms seem similar, but are the Outer Banks better protected or of higher elevation? The reason I ask is because I know that at least some of the residents there are not evacuating and I have that iconic post-IKE image in my mind (the one with only 1 house standing) and I am very concerned about what might happen to those that have decided to stay behind.

If Irene wants to push though the OBX islands, it will, see Isabel 2003 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel and "Isabel Inlet"

[JonathanBelles]

203
URNT11 KNHC 260621
97779 06124 60276 75908 30500 20081 09098 /3024
RMK AF304 2409A IRENE OB 15
SWS = 54 KTS
;

[Cranica]

It's worth noting that EWRCs typically result in expansion of the windfield, as we've seen the past few days. The new outer wind max is absolutely colossal, I don't think I've ever seen an actual eye anywhere near this size.

[Dave]

[Aja]

Thank you for educating me. I am not a Met, my field is journalism. The initial media hype led me to this site to get real & informative observation of Irene. I have found this site to provide sound observations and a wealth of education. Thank you all so much.

[JonathanBelles]

485
URNT15 KNHC 260630
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 32 20110826
062030 2758N 07618W 6969 03008 9881 +098 //// 208085 085 058 003 01
062100 2759N 07620W 6965 03008 9879 +095 //// 207084 085 057 005 01
062130 2801N 07621W 6970 02997 9872 +096 //// 205085 085 058 005 01
062200 2802N 07623W 6967 02994 9868 +094 //// 206085 087 059 007 01
062230 2803N 07624W 6969 02985 //// +082 //// 204087 088 060 011 01
062300 2805N 07626W 6965 02985 //// +072 //// 206088 090 061 019 01
062330 2806N 07627W 6957 02989 //// +075 //// 210091 093 063 018 01
062400 2807N 07629W 6974 02965 //// +075 //// 209090 091 063 015 01
062430 2809N 07630W 6973 02961 //// +071 //// 215095 096 062 013 01
062500 2810N 07631W 6963 02967 9824 +091 //// 215098 099 062 007 01
062530 2811N 07633W 6967 02957 9815 +103 //// 214098 099 063 006 01
062600 2812N 07634W 6967 02950 9798 +111 +103 212097 098 065 006 00
062630 2814N 07636W 6969 02942 9792 +110 +106 212097 098 066 006 00
062700 2815N 07637W 6971 02931 9792 +098 //// 214102 104 067 008 01
062730 2816N 07638W 6962 02931 //// +087 //// 211105 106 070 010 01
062800 2817N 07640W 6970 02914 //// +079 //// 211105 106 070 011 01
062830 2819N 07641W 6966 02917 //// +102 //// 211102 105 071 008 01
062900 2820N 07643W 6969 02904 9745 +113 //// 217099 100 070 005 01
062930 2821N 07644W 6965 02901 //// +117 //// 219095 095 071 003 01
063000 2822N 07645W 6970 02887 //// +119 //// 218096 097 072 004 01
$$

Local maximums: 106kt FL