ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261256
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 29 20110826
124630 2909N 07838W 7525 02399 9918 +138 +141 306049 049 048 001 00
124700 2910N 07836W 7525 02399 9916 +139 +139 307050 051 048 001 00
124730 2912N 07834W 7525 02397 9908 +145 +136 307051 053 047 000 00
124800 2913N 07833W 7527 02391 9900 +150 +133 305052 053 049 000 00
124830 2915N 07831W 7527 02388 9897 +149 +137 306055 055 048 001 00
124900 2916N 07829W 7526 02385 9889 +153 +138 306052 054 049 000 00
124930 2917N 07828W 7526 02380 9887 +150 +132 306050 051 050 002 00
125000 2919N 07826W 7528 02372 9879 +151 +132 305051 051 050 001 00
125030 2920N 07824W 7528 02368 9873 +152 +137 306053 054 050 000 00
125100 2922N 07823W 7523 02371 9873 +150 +135 312056 057 049 000 00
125130 2923N 07821W 7529 02359 9865 +152 +135 311054 056 050 000 00
125200 2925N 07819W 7528 02354 9854 +157 +134 309054 054 051 001 00
125230 2926N 07818W 7527 02349 9846 +159 +136 308055 056 051 000 00
125300 2928N 07816W 7525 02348 9840 +161 +138 313055 056 051 001 00
125330 2929N 07815W 7527 02342 9838 +157 +143 315054 054 053 001 00
125400 2931N 07813W 7529 02335 9829 +161 +143 317054 055 054 001 00
125430 2932N 07811W 7527 02331 9821 +162 +149 321054 055 053 001 00
125500 2933N 07810W 7525 02327 9818 +158 +150 322057 058 056 001 00
125530 2935N 07808W 7527 02318 9811 +155 +153 325061 062 056 001 00
125600 2936N 07807W 7526 02310 9802 +156 +153 326063 065 056 001 00

[psyclone]

Question for the forum: I have family who live near BWI in Baltimore, and they own a condo at Ocean City and have a motor home parked at Chincoteague Island. I realize there is nothing you can do about the condo, but they don't think this will be that serious and have decided to leave the motor home where it is. Anyone care to venture a guess on the potential storm surge/damage near Ocean City, MD?

Can't tell for sure about the motor home as I don't know where it's parked on the island. But I can tell you that SLOSH is indicating that most of the island will go underwater when Irene passes. There are some high spots that may be just above the storm surge, but they could be underwater, too, given the very large waves rolling into the coast. I'd figure that the mobile home will be lost if you leave it there.

there's a good chance the motor home would be flipped or damaged by bigh winds even if it's out of reach of surge.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261319
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 26 20110826
130930 3046N 07757W 6965 02904 9750 +113 +047 046074 075 063 011 00
131000 3045N 07755W 6979 02878 9731 +123 +047 042079 081 067 031 00
131030 3044N 07754W 6968 02883 9753 +092 +046 049072 076 069 032 00
131100 3042N 07753W 6982 02851 9726 +105 +047 052057 061 072 008 00
131130 3041N 07751W 6963 02866 9682 +134 +047 049057 057 072 007 00
131200 3040N 07750W 6967 02851 9654 +153 +047 042057 058 069 005 00
131230 3039N 07748W 6966 02845 9630 +166 +048 038056 056 066 002 00
131300 3037N 07747W 6969 02833 9619 +168 +051 035055 057 062 001 03
131330 3036N 07745W 6969 02823 9613 +165 +054 038059 060 061 002 03
131400 3035N 07744W 6970 02809 9592 +171 +055 036060 062 061 001 03
131430 3034N 07742W 6970 02796 9574 +174 +057 026058 059 060 000 00
131500 3032N 07741W 6964 02792 9558 +177 +060 027059 060 061 000 00
131530 3031N 07739W 6972 02768 9558 +163 +061 030057 060 062 000 00
131600 3030N 07738W 6974 02753 9533 +173 +062 026056 057 061 000 00
131630 3028N 07736W 6960 02751 9504 +182 +063 024060 062 057 000 03
131700 3027N 07734W 6969 02722 9458 +212 +066 021053 056 058 000 00
131730 3025N 07733W 6974 02700 9449 +205 +068 012049 051 046 002 00
131800 3024N 07731W 6969 02692 9443 +193 +069 017041 047 035 000 00
131830 3023N 07730W 6963 02686 9437 +187 +069 015027 032 027 000 00
131900 3021N 07728W 6962 02680 9435 +184 +067 014019 024 019 001 03
$$
;

[littlevince]

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances of the GFDL verifying?

[HurricaneBelle]

Question for the forum: I have family who live near BWI in Baltimore, and they own a condo at Ocean City and have a motor home parked at Chincoteague Island. I realize there is nothing you can do about the condo, but they don't think this will be that serious and have decided to leave the motor home where it is. Anyone care to venture a guess on the potential storm surge/damage near Ocean City, MD?

Can't tell for sure about the motor home as I don't know where it's parked on the island. But I can tell you that SLOSH is indicating that most of the island will go underwater when Irene passes. There are some high spots that may be just above the storm surge, but they could be underwater, too, given the very large waves rolling into the coast. I'd figure that the mobile home will be lost if you leave it there. Most of the island may be destroyed.

Yeah, that home will definitely be mobile, just not in the manner of its intended use.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261306
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 30 20110826
125630 2938N 07805W 7529 02301 9795 +154 +155 324064 065 056 002 00
125700 2939N 07804W 7526 02295 9787 +154 +156 323067 068 056 000 00
125730 2940N 07802W 7527 02288 9776 +159 +146 322071 072 056 001 00
125800 2942N 07800W 7526 02280 9769 +156 +151 321075 077 057 001 00
125830 2943N 07759W 7529 02268 9753 +164 +149 322078 079 059 001 00
125900 2944N 07757W 7528 02259 9739 +168 +147 322079 080 059 001 00
125930 2946N 07756W 7535 02241 9723 +173 +147 319078 080 061 000 00
130000 2947N 07754W 7523 02242 9720 +160 +158 317076 076 061 001 00
130030 2948N 07753W 7530 02225 9711 +160 +158 314076 077 059 002 00
130100 2950N 07751W 7518 02234 9681 +191 +146 311075 077 063 000 00
130130 2951N 07750W 7534 02209 9658 +211 +141 306064 065 067 000 00
130200 2953N 07748W 7530 02208 9667 +189 +153 300064 067 066 001 00
130230 2954N 07746W 7518 02212 9670 +172 +162 304063 065 059 001 00
130300 2956N 07745W 7517 02200 9657 +171 +162 304060 063 052 003 00
130330 2957N 07743W 7515 02195 9649 +169 +169 306057 058 049 004 00
130400 2959N 07741W 7519 02182 9634 +177 +164 312055 055 048 002 00
130430 3000N 07739W 7520 02168 9607 +195 +157 311055 056 047 002 00
130500 3002N 07738W 7522 02155 9590 +202 +161 311055 056 047 002 00
130530 3003N 07736W 7517 02152 9590 +189 +160 313055 055 046 002 00
130600 3005N 07734W 7517 02140 9574 +197 +153 315056 057 045 002 00

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261329
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 27 20110826
131930 3020N 07726W 6970 02672 9436 +183 +067 012009 012 020 000 03
132000 3020N 07724W 6963 02676 9439 +175 +068 293008 010 021 001 03
132030 3020N 07722W 6962 02677 9446 +166 +068 222006 009 /// /// 03
132100 3022N 07721W 6969 02669 9458 +154 +068 159012 013 020 000 03
132130 3023N 07720W 6974 02665 9467 +149 +068 137018 021 022 001 03
132200 3024N 07718W 6967 02675 9470 +145 +068 140022 025 /// /// 03
132230 3023N 07717W 6958 02683 9469 +146 +067 178018 020 027 002 00
132300 3021N 07715W 6969 02672 9469 +146 +068 196023 026 035 001 00
132330 3020N 07714W 6963 02682 9471 +149 +066 206037 039 038 002 00
132400 3019N 07713W 6967 02684 9471 +156 +066 210038 038 048 002 00
132430 3018N 07711W 6966 02692 9473 +160 +067 211040 042 060 006 00
132500 3016N 07710W 6970 02699 9489 +155 +068 207052 058 070 004 00
132530 3015N 07709W 6961 02721 9505 +151 +068 210068 071 070 004 00
132600 3014N 07708W 6968 02726 9522 +151 +068 212077 079 067 001 00
132630 3013N 07706W 6967 02742 9537 +152 +068 216081 083 062 001 00
132700 3012N 07705W 6971 02750 9554 +148 +069 216081 081 066 002 03
132730 3011N 07704W 6971 02762 9558 +157 +069 214076 078 067 003 03
132800 3009N 07703W 6966 02782 9570 +158 +068 213074 075 068 003 00
132830 3008N 07701W 6964 02790 9579 +160 +069 214078 080 066 006 00
132900 3007N 07700W 6974 02793 9592 +159 +069 214084 084 063 008 00
$$
;

[HurrMark]

Looks like an easterly shift has taken place...we will see if this is a trend...

[maryellen40]

Remember with Ike, even though it made landfall on Galveston, hurricane-force winds extended to Lake Charles (140 miles away) and significant surge past Lafayette (about 250 miles). Tropical storm conditions covered most of Louisiana and east Texas.

A similar situation will likely exist here.

If I recall, wasn't Cameron,LA(where Audrey and Rita made landfall) devastated by a 20+ ft storm surge by Ike?

[littlevince]

[CrazyC83]

Remember with Ike, even though it made landfall on Galveston, hurricane-force winds extended to Lake Charles (140 miles away) and significant surge past Lafayette (about 250 miles). Tropical storm conditions covered most of Louisiana and east Texas.

A similar situation will likely exist here.

Yeah, though the hurricane force winds should be as large given the track will put the most of the east coast on the western side which has a smaller area of hurricane winds typically, esp in a lower end hurricane which Irene probably will be.

Fact is though alot of the east coast will get tropical storm force winds at some point in the next few days.

South of NYC yes (so places like DC and Baltimore should only get TS winds with hurricane winds only on and near the coast), but New England is entirely in the strongest part probably).

[CrazyC83]

Remember with Ike, even though it made landfall on Galveston, hurricane-force winds extended to Lake Charles (140 miles away) and significant surge past Lafayette (about 250 miles). Tropical storm conditions covered most of Louisiana and east Texas.

A similar situation will likely exist here.

If I recall, wasn't Cameron,LA(where Audrey and Rita made landfall) devastated by a 20+ ft storm surge by Ike?

That is correct.

[CrazyC83]

What's the outlook for Wilmington NC this morning? Kids are still debating evacuation. Our house is about 6 miles from the beach.

Expect strong tropical storm conditions, maybe gusts to hurricane force, unless it shifts closer.

[littlevince]

AF306

000
URNT12 KNHC 261340
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 26/13:21:00Z
B. 30 deg 21 min N
077 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2632 m
D. 73 kt
E. 304 deg 33 nm
F. 042 deg 80 kt
G. 304 deg 38 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 12 C / 3042 m
J. 19 C / 3047 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF306 2709A IRENE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 110 KT NE QUAD 11:57:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 101 KT SE QUAD 13:32:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 291 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[CronkPSU]

Question for the forum: I have family who live near BWI in Baltimore, and they own a condo at Ocean City and have a motor home parked at Chincoteague Island. I realize there is nothing you can do about the condo, but they don't think this will be that serious and have decided to leave the motor home where it is. Anyone care to venture a guess on the potential storm surge/damage near Ocean City, MD?

Can't tell for sure about the motor home as I don't know where it's parked on the island. But I can tell you that SLOSH is indicating that most of the island will go underwater when Irene passes. There are some high spots that may be just above the storm surge, but they could be underwater, too, given the very large waves rolling into the coast. I'd figure that the mobile home will be lost if you leave it there. Most of the island may be destroyed.

I was there the day after Bertha hit in the mid 90's and the entire place was under water then, nothing major but that was just a little trop storm...one would think this storm would do a lot more damage, if i remember the story right, those islands and Little and Big Assawoman Bays were created from a hurricane back in the 1800's so they must not handle these things well

[Chacor]

Looking at the latest local warnings, couple of major cities on the northeast coast have upgraded inland warnings. Richmond, VA, Baltimore, MD, and Washington D.C. are all under a TS warning; Philadelphia, PA is now under a hurricane warning. New York City, NY and Boston, MA are both under hurricane watches.

[Hogweed]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 13:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 13:21:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°21'N 77°21'W (30.35N 77.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 229 miles (369 km) to the SE (137°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,632m (8,635ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 42° at 80kts (From the NE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 110kts (~ 126.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:57:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 13:32:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) from the flight level center

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261316
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 31 20110826
130630 3006N 07733W 7523 02124 9551 +214 +144 315056 057 043 001 00
130700 3008N 07731W 7524 02103 9520 +228 +140 311053 054 045 001 00
130730 3009N 07729W 7526 02078 9482 +252 +128 307057 057 045 001 00
130800 3011N 07727W 7517 02070 9464 +249 +144 304051 058 040 001 00
130830 3012N 07726W 7523 02050 9461 +228 +168 300029 031 036 001 00
130900 3014N 07724W 7517 02046 9462 +212 +170 294020 025 028 001 00
130930 3016N 07723W 7522 02033 9460 +204 +172 262010 013 026 001 03
131000 3018N 07723W 7520 02032 9463 +192 +179 230001 004 027 001 00
131030 3020N 07722W 7523 02025 9462 +187 +184 156004 007 025 001 03
131100 3021N 07721W 7519 02029 9464 +184 +182 154012 014 027 000 00
131130 3022N 07719W 7522 02029 9467 +186 +183 152019 022 033 002 00
131200 3024N 07717W 7517 02039 9471 +188 +180 140029 035 034 002 00
131230 3025N 07715W 7524 02037 9479 +184 +181 144037 039 039 004 00
131300 3027N 07714W 7507 02065 9488 +183 +179 147047 051 049 011 00
131330 3028N 07712W 7524 02056 9503 +177 //// 146062 070 070 045 01
131400 3030N 07710W 7508 02093 9531 +164 //// 144077 081 082 039 01
131430 3031N 07708W 7512 02105 9548 +170 //// 145087 091 082 037 01
131500 3032N 07707W 7506 02133 9572 +166 //// 146093 097 068 036 01
131530 3034N 07705W 7504 02157 9598 +163 //// 145095 097 069 020 01
131600 3035N 07703W 7512 02164 9612 +169 +174 147090 091 072 013 00




000
URNT15 KNHC 261339
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 28 20110826
132930 3006N 07659W 6967 02812 9630 +133 +068 213083 083 042 037 00
133000 3005N 07658W 6960 02827 9643 +128 +065 214082 082 055 023 00
133030 3004N 07657W 6971 02826 9640 +141 +063 210083 084 063 011 00
133100 3003N 07656W 6961 02843 9651 +138 +063 207091 093 063 007 00
133130 3002N 07655W 6963 02846 9660 +133 +062 207095 097 066 006 00
133200 3001N 07653W 6967 02849 9677 +127 +061 207099 101 067 004 00
133230 3000N 07652W 6963 02862 9688 +124 +060 207101 101 065 001 00
133300 2959N 07651W 6971 02862 9686 +138 +060 209099 099 066 000 00
133330 2958N 07650W 6965 02878 9693 +137 +060 211098 098 064 001 03
133400 2957N 07649W 6970 02880 9709 +130 +060 215098 098 065 000 03
133430 2956N 07648W 6967 02896 9718 +135 +061 215098 099 063 000 03
133500 2955N 07647W 6970 02901 9725 +137 +062 216100 102 064 000 03
133530 2954N 07646W 6967 02908 9731 +137 +062 215100 100 062 000 03
133600 2954N 07646W 6967 02908 9741 +133 +062 215101 102 062 000 00
133630 2951N 07644W 6966 02923 9750 +131 +062 216104 105 061 002 00
133700 2950N 07643W 6967 02928 9754 +135 +062 217103 103 060 001 00
133730 2949N 07641W 6967 02933 9771 +124 +062 216104 104 059 001 00
133800 2948N 07640W 6968 02936 9781 +120 +062 217103 104 058 001 00
133830 2947N 07639W 6963 02948 9795 +112 +061 219101 102 057 000 00
133900 2946N 07638W 6963 02953 9794 +119 +061 219100 101 056 001 00
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph)

am I reading that right? 84 mph at the surface?