Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[South Texas Storms]

I think there's a decent chance. Conditions aloft down the line look favorable..This is what Texas needs...A TD Or TS!!!

Texas does not need another Don though! My heart won't be able to take another heartbreaking storm like he was!

[South Texas Storms]

I'm loving me some GFS and NAM!!

Now if only King Euro would come on board. Captain Obvious says we could really use a depression or low-grade TS here in Texas.

Actually Porta, I think a tropical wave would be better for us as the rain would be more widespread. If a tropical cyclone develops and moves into Louisiana, we would get pretty much nothing here being on the west side of the system.

True ... but the 12z GFS parks the low just to the southeast of Brownsville. The circulation of said low would sling copious amounts of moisture into much of Texas.

Then how come the 12z GFS only gives SA and Austin .25-.50 inch QPF? All of the copious rainfall amounts on the 12z GFS are offshore and in Louisiana.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Dont worry about what the QPF's are showing right now. They are always way to low!!

[Portastorm]

Honestly STS, I don't know and I'll leave it to the pro mets to explain.

But I do know that whenever we have a low developing in that general area, the circulation around it usually throws significant PWATS into (at least) the southern half of Texas. If nothing else, that would be the kind of pattern which would give a lot of us in Texas about a 30-40% chance of showers/storms on a daily basis as long as it's down there.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

At least!

[underthwx]

hello all......so the high over us is moving east?......a couple pages back....someone mentioned the high moving west....can someone clarify?.....please and thankyou...btw...yall did your usual great job with Irene...

[South Texas Storms]

Ok thanks for the clarification guys! It is definitely something to keep a close eye on! Bye bye to our ridge. Hopefully for a very long time!

[Tireman4]

hello all......so the high over us is moving east?......a couple pages back....someone mentioned the high moving west....can someone clarify?.....please and thankyou...btw...yall did your usual great job with Irene...

From Jeff, a pro met on here and Khou.com:

Large upper level high over the state will bake the area again today with highs in the 104-107 degree range and again above 100 on Tuesday. Big changes begin by late Wednesday as an upper level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico and pushes toward the lower TX coast. At this same time deep tropical moisture currently noted over the western Caribbean Sea will be drawn northward on the east side of this trough into SE TX starting late Wednesday. PWS values which are bone dry at this time will surge into the 2.3-2.5 inch range by early Thursday morning….very tropical. Upper level ridge aloft split and one piece moving into the SW US and the other becoming an extension of the Bermuda ridge over the SE US. For the first time in months TX will lie in a weakened height field with very favorable rain making conditions.


http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=815&start=10

[Portastorm]

JB just tweeted this:

Home brew development western gulf for LABOR day weekend, though system should not be as strong as atlantic system coming from east

[underthwx]

hello all......so the high over us is moving east?......a couple pages back....someone mentioned the high moving west....can someone clarify?.....please and thankyou...btw...yall did your usual great job with Irene...

From Jeff, a pro met on here and Khou.com:

Large upper level high over the state will bake the area again today with highs in the 104-107 degree range and again above 100 on Tuesday. Big changes begin by late Wednesday as an upper level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico and pushes toward the lower TX coast. At this same time deep tropical moisture currently noted over the western Caribbean Sea will be drawn northward on the east side of this trough into SE TX starting late Wednesday. PWS values which are bone dry at this time will surge into the 2.3-2.5 inch range by early Thursday morning….very tropical. Upper level ridge aloft split and one piece moving into the SW US and the other becoming an extension of the Bermuda ridge over the SE US. For the first time in months TX will lie in a weakened height field with very favorable rain making conditions.


http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=815&start=10

thanks for the reply....im trying to learn how to read the models, but its all greek to me right now...anyone who could pm me a models page for beginners id be grateful...im recovering at home from surgery...got alot of time on my hands....Rock sent me some but i accidentally deleted them....thanks...

[BigA]

12Z Canadian is in on development. Closes a low off at about 90 hours and moves it just south of the TX/Mex border.

All eyes on the Euro.

[Portastorm]

And it's looking like the Euro is on board (at least thru 96 hours)!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[BigA]

And it's looking like the Euro is on board (at least thru 96 hours)!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Sure is! At 120 hours has a 1002 mb low in the NW Gulf

[South Texas Storms]

It looks like most of the global models are now showing development in the western GOM.

[Tireman4]

Now, I wonder. Will the HGX AFD mention it today? Hummm

[wxman22]

[Tireman4]

[quote="wxman22"][img]

Huh?

[Portastorm]

Wxman22, you need to save the image and then upload it onto our site. Otherwise, if you're trying to pull an image from Alan Huffman's site, you'll get the error message.

[Big O]

Euro suggest SW motion thereafter toward the lower Texas coast (CC and/or BRO).

[gboudx]

DFW mentions it in a mid-AM update. Though they mention shear may be too high.

MODELS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
SHIFT THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD SIGNAL THE END TO THIS BRUTAL
SUMMER HEAT. ADDITIONALLY...SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TUTT LOW MOVING NORTH INTO TEXAS FROM THE GULF WILL INCREASE THE
RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK.

ONE ITEM WORTH MENTIONING IS THE CURRENT NAM FORECAST OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY DEVELOPS AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF. IN FACT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT IS JUST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. SHEAR OVER THE
GULF IS CURRENTLY HIGH AND NO OTHER MODELS DEPICT THIS SYSTEM. THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE SHOULD
STILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.