ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[ckiggins]

Hello everyone - complete noob here with no weather background - just lurking, though I find this incredibly interesting.

I have found this site and am watching religiously already because of an upcoming important transatlantic flight next Thursday departing from JFK. (14 night Mediterranean cruise that has been booked for 9+ months now!)

I am watching all of the storm tracks/models being posted and am wondering if there is a scenario in which NYC may be affected by this one as they were with Irene.

Of course we are leaving on the evening of Thursday, September 8, which is when I am showing the biggest threat to the US at this point.

I know it is far too early to tell - but any thoughts?

[Jevo]

well maybe not.. although its another significant synoptic change for the GFS this run the amplified trough over midwest ends up swinging east eroding the ridging on the east coast.. so between 7 and 10 days.. looks like it will end up re curving. though after the trough it looks like there is a very large ridge that fills in... maybe a pattern change finally ?

Here is that ridge Aric was talking about... 2 weeks out.. looks pretty solid



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[BigA]

I'm no teleconnections maven, but it may be worth mentioning that in the western Pacific, Talas's track has shfted significantly during the past few days from missing Japan well to the east to making a direct landfall. Conceivably, this could mean that if there is a teleconnection with the Atlantic, the track predictions for TD 12 could trend west.

Just a thought; no real model data behind it.

[phwxenthusiast]

I'm no teleconnections maven, but it may be worth mentioning that in the western Pacific, Talas's track has shfted significantly during the past few days from missing Japan well to the east to making a direct landfall. Conceivably, this could mean that if there is a teleconnection with the Atlantic, the track predictions for TD 12 could trend west.

Just a thought; no real model data behind it.

hi! i have read this teleconnections numerous times today.. i hope you could explain more seems i also monitor the WPAC and just want to learn more... does this have to do with the trough setting up next week in the US??

i agree though that Talas' track has shifted indeed and if what you're saying is true we really need to watch this typhoon as it tracks across Japan...

i may have to read more on that WPAC-ATL teleconnections thingy, i'm getting curious now...

[SouthFloridawx]

Woops meant for this thread. It's going to be a long week in the models thread for this storm.

[Time_Zone]

Any chance this could potentially pose a threat to Nova Scotia in the long run?

Im aware its very, very early.

[gatorcane]

Looking at SAT loops tonight of the system, looks to me like it has picked up some speed and heading pretty quickly to the west.

The 12Z ECMWF has sped up the forward speed of this system through the first 120 hours, and looks like that may verify. Ridging to the north of the system is very strong right now.

[hurricaneCW]

Looking at SAT loops tonight of the system, looks to me like it has picked up some speed and heading pretty quickly to the west.

The 12Z ECMWF has sped up the forward speed of this system through the first 120 hours, and looks like that may verify. Ridging to the north of the system is very strong right now.

What do you think of the gfs, is it still not latching on to the pattern and are we going to see a lot of flip flops from it from run to run.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0000 UTC 10.8N 29.1W T2.5/2.5 12L

[abajan]

BigA... it opens up as a blank map, but anyone can easily add the models they want to see. Thanks.

If you want to post an image of something that you can't right click and save, take a screen shot (print screen button usually in top right of keyboard), open your Paint program, press CTRL + V to paste it into paint, then crop it to take out excess clutter from your screen, save it, and upload it. I do this all the time and it's really quick once you get used to doing it. Hope this helps.

That's an okay technique but once you start using Jing, you'll quickly realize how cool it is for taking screen shots and annotating them. I keep its little yellow semi-transparent semi-circle at the top of my screen all the time.

Now back to your regularly scheduled thread.

[BigA]

Looking at SAT loops tonight of the system, looks to me like it has picked up some speed and heading pretty quickly to the west.

The 12Z ECMWF has sped up the forward speed of this system through the first 120 hours, and looks like that may verify. Ridging to the north of the system is very strong right now.

Just a thought, but is it possible that the easterly shear is a sign that the ridging is stronger than forseen? If true, wouldn't this be something of a positive feedback, in that the easterly shear keeps the storm from intensifying rapidly, causing it to move more west, which would keep it under more easterly shear? (the shear map shows the shear higher around 10N than at 15N)

[KWT]

Any chance this could potentially pose a threat to Nova Scotia in the long run?

Im aware its very, very early.

Obviously very early days but the models at least hint that the set-up aloft could be condusive for a threat to E.Canada/NE States along way down the line. I think to try and pin it down any more then that this far out is probably not much use.

[brunota2003]

Perhaps Irene was just a warning shot to get people in the NE thinking that they *could* be hit.

[KWT]

Well the models certainly seem very agressive at the moment when it comes to strength, they really do ramp this system up. Also the models do seem to be generally shifting westwards...for now anyway!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

It will be TS Katia at 11 PM.

AL, 12, 2011083000, , BEST, 0, 108N, 294W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 300058
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0058 UTC TUE AUG 30 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE (AL122011) 20110830 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110830  0000   110830  1200   110831  0000   110831  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.8N  29.4W   11.5N  32.2W   12.2N  35.2W   12.8N  38.4W
BAMD    10.8N  29.4W   11.5N  32.2W   12.3N  34.9W   13.1N  37.5W
BAMM    10.8N  29.4W   11.6N  32.0W   12.4N  34.9W   13.3N  37.9W
LBAR    10.8N  29.4W   11.8N  32.2W   13.0N  35.3W   14.0N  38.5W
SHIP        35KTS          42KTS          51KTS          61KTS
DSHP        35KTS          42KTS          51KTS          61KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110901  0000   110902  0000   110903  0000   110904  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  41.7W   14.0N  47.1W   15.6N  49.9W   18.8N  52.8W
BAMD    14.0N  40.1W   16.1N  45.2W   18.8N  49.9W   20.6N  54.4W
BAMM    14.1N  41.0W   15.5N  46.9W   16.7N  51.2W   18.4N  54.0W
LBAR    14.9N  41.7W   15.7N  47.7W   16.5N  51.6W   18.3N  54.0W
SHIP        68KTS          84KTS          91KTS          95KTS
DSHP        68KTS          84KTS          91KTS          95KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.8N LONCUR =  29.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =   9.9N LONM12 =  26.9W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =   9.3N LONM24 =  24.3W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =   40NM RD34NW =  40NM
 


[abajan]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0000 UTC 10.8N 29.1W T2.5/2.5 12L

Perhaps more importantly:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0000 UTC 10.8N 29.1W T2.5/2.5 12L

Looks like it's gaining latitude, peeps.

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0000 UTC 10.8N 29.1W T2.5/2.5 12L

Perhaps more importantly:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0000 UTC 10.8N 29.1W T2.5/2.5 12L

Looks like it's gaining latitude, peeps.

Moving WNW at 290 degrees.

Code: Select all

LATCUR =  10.8N LONCUR =  29.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  13KT


[fci]

Well, this is turning out so far to be a pretty goofy season with the monster Texas ridge, a storm going right up the coast and affecting the NE.
Climatology is a slam dunk that TD12 will recurve, but; I am not so sure that we can count on climatology in a goofy year like this.
And this comment is coming from someone who constantly, incessantly, relies on climatology to make most of his arguments!!!!

you must be running a high fever....

Feeling fine.
Thank you for your concern!!!

[BigA]

It looks to me a bit west and possibly south of the position given, but admittedly quite hard to tell. Does seem to be moving rather rapidly.

On closer inspection, looks like 10.8 29.4 is correct.