Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[ronjon]

Strange Euro run in that it develops a hurricane off the carolina coast in one day which merges with Katia. This sort of follows the GFS of at least a piece of energy breaking off and moving east. I don't think the models have settled down on this one yet. It may still eventually get pushed east as a large continental high pressure will start pushing down over the central US later in the period.

[pwrdog]

06z Nam showing a SE Tex landfall and then ??

Kinda like the Euro..

Yeah. It goes inland in SE TX and then goes right back out over the GOM at the end of the run. I know it's the NAM, but some of the models are showing some wonky scenarios.

06z NAM loop:http://tinyurl.com/444khs6

Looping systems are rare but I've seen several....

It looks like the 6Z GFS is still well east.... Near Ala and Fla..

[ronjon]

00z UKMET develops just off SE La.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/00zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalukmetLoop.html

[bamajammer4eva]

Alabama's James Spann from ABC 33/40 began podcasts Tues afternoon detailing this system. A link to his blog and video is below. He was the one many in AL watched for the 4/27 tornado outbreak. As of this post, his last update was Tues afternoon explaining the 12Z models but he said he should have an update by 7 this AM.

http://www.alabamawx.com

[pwrdog]

00z UKMET develops just off SE La.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/00zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalukmetLoop.html

6z

Nam- Tex
Euro- Tex
Ukmet- La
GFS- Fla

No real help from the models.... Another day and maybe something to look at worth while.. It's Just too early...

At least they have all bases covered... But Texas has a slight edge..

The Euro is by far the most entertaining model this morning....

[ronjon]

HPCs discussion.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS DESTINED TO IMPACT AREAS
OF THE WESTERN AND CNTRL GULF OF MX DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOICE.
THE 00Z CMC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE CARRYING A POTENT H5 VORT MAX
INTO GALVESTON BAY BY 03/1200Z. SIMILARLY...THE 00Z UKMET ALSO
SHOWS A MODESTLY STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING COASTAL LA BY SUN
MORNING. AS THESE SOLNS WERE RATHER EXTREME WITH SPREAD THAT WAS
ON THE HIGHER END...THESE MODELS WERE REMOVED AS OUTLIERS. FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF WAS
UTILIZED BEFORE THE 00Z GFS BECAME A BIT MORE SUSPICIOUS. BY
SUN...THE 00Z GFS INDICATES A STRONG SFC CYCLONE SHOULD IMPACT THE
FL PANHANDLE WITH VERY FEW 12Z GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTING A LOCATION
THAT FAR TO THE EAST. IT ALSO DID NOT AGREE WELL WITH ITS
PRECEDING THREE RUNS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH A POTENT NE PAC SYSTEM ON MON WITH PRESSURES FCST TO BE MUCH
TOO DEEP. SO A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GLOBAL MEANS WAS
UTILIZED FOR DAYS 4/5. THEREAFTER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE GULF OF MX DISTURBANCE LEAD TO MORE
OF AN ENS APPROACH TO CONCLUDE THE PERIOD OF INTEREST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE FAVORED GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENS MEMBERS RESIDE IN THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN.
BUT...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS UTILIZED GIVEN THE FCST
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE.

[txwxpirate]

Houston NWS disco:

ALL RIGHT...THE PART OF THE FORECAST EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW
ABOUT. IS IT GOING TO RAIN THIS WEEKEND OR NOT? IF YOU LIVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...YOU WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING AT
LEAST A FEW DROPS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW TO SAY
THE LEAST.

FIRST...TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS NOT ALL THAT
ORGANIZED AND LOOKS TO POSSIBLY MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HARD TO KNOW WHAT WILL REMAIN OF THE WAVE ONCE IT EMERGES INTO
THE GULF SOMETIME TOMORROW. THE WAVE IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED
BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WHERE THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW. SAID ALL OF THIS TO
SAY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AND LARGELY DEPEND ON
WHERE IT CAN DEVELOP A CORE OF CONVECTION.

SECOND...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS ILL-DEFINED...NONE OF THE MODELS
REALLY HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON HOW TO INITIALIZE IT OR HOW TO HANDLE
ITS EVOLUTION ONCE SOMETHING DOES FORM. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AT LEAST A TROPICAL CYCLONE OF SOME
SHAPE AND DEEPENING IT OFF THE LA COAST FRI. THINK IT WEAKENS THE
RIDGE TOO MUCH WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM THE S ROCKIES TO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MINDS AS WELL BE POLAR
OPPOSITES WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. GFS HAS A BROAD WEAK LOW ALONG
THE LA COAST AND MOVES IT EAST WITH TIME AND THEN UP THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK LOW FRI/SAT AND THEN
DEEPENS IT OFF THE LOWER TX COAST SUN. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE
W GULF THROUGH MID OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING N INTO SE TX.
NEITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS LOOK VERY REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
THE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PROBABLY OFFER AT LEAST SOME
GUIDANCE. THE SREF LIKE THE NAM DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE LA COAST
BY FRI BUT IS MUCH WEAKER. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE GFS
ENSEMBLE. SREF DOES LOOK TO MOVE THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST
SOME LIKE THE NAM AS WELL. THE MAIN TRICK WILL BE TO SEE IF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WILL BE
ABLE TO PICK UP THE SYSTEM SUN/MON WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
S ROCKIES AND WEAKENING OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY OPEN
UP ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO PULL INLAND SUN/MON. ADD TOO THAT
THAT THE EXTENDED MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE REGION MON...THIS
TOO MAY GIVE REASON FOR THE SYSTEM TO PUSH INLAND IN THE SUN/MON
TIME FRAME.

SO UNTIL THE MODELS COME IN TO MORE AGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS...BEST COURSE SEEMS TO BE TO GO WITH PARTS OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS THAT MAKE THE MOST PHYSICAL SENSE WHICH REALLY IS NOT
MUCH. ALIGNED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND KEEPING
IN MIND LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE N GULF FRI. SYSTEM LINGERS IN THE N/NW GULF
THROUGH SUN WHEN STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH BEGINS TO PULL
IT INLAND SUN/MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION
MON/TUE WHICH CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY BRING TEMPS
DOWN TO CLIMO NORMS WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TEMPS FROM THIS PAST WEEK. AGAIN...WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM BECAUSE QUITE POSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE RAINBANDS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG EAST WINDS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD ALSO BUILD UP SEAS AND COASTAL FLOODING
THREAT. WHILE SE TX COULD USE THE RAINFALL...STILL LOTS OF OTHER
IMPACTS THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY ARE SKETCHY AT BEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME IMPACTS TO THE AREA...BEST TO MONITOR
FORECAST TRENDS CLOSELY

[ronjon]

06z GFS consistent again east along the northern gulf coast into the FL panhandle.

[meriland23]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 12Z SUN SEP 04 2011 - 12Z WED SEP 07 2011

"THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENS MODEL GUIDANCE WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A STRENGTHENING UPR TROF ADVANCING THRU THE NORTH-CNTRL U.S. EARLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. SHARP HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ATOP AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COVERING A MAJORITY
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS DESTINED TO IMPACT AREAS
OF THE WESTERN AND CNTRL GULF OF MX DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOICE.
THE 00Z CMC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE CARRYING A POTENT H5 VORT MAX
INTO GALVESTON BAY BY 03/1200Z. SIMILARLY...THE 00Z UKMET ALSO
SHOWS A MODESTLY STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING COASTAL LA BY SUN
MORNING. AS THESE SOLNS WERE RATHER EXTREME WITH SPREAD THAT WAS
ON THE HIGHER END...THESE MODELS WERE REMOVED AS OUTLIERS. FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF WAS
UTILIZED BEFORE THE 00Z GFS BECAME A BIT MORE SUSPICIOUS. BY
SUN...THE 00Z GFS INDICATES A STRONG SFC CYCLONE SHOULD IMPACT THE
FL PANHANDLE WITH VERY FEW 12Z GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTING A LOCATION
THAT FAR TO THE EAST. IT ALSO DID NOT AGREE WELL WITH ITS
PRECEDING THREE RUNS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH A POTENT NE PAC SYSTEM ON MON WITH PRESSURES FCST TO BE MUCH
TOO DEEP. SO A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GLOBAL MEANS WAS
UTILIZED FOR DAYS 4/5. THEREAFTER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE GULF OF MX DISTURBANCE LEAD TO MORE
OF AN ENS APPROACH TO CONCLUDE THE PERIOD OF INTEREST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE FAVORED GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENS MEMBERS RESIDE IN THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN.
BUT...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS UTILIZED GIVEN THE FCST
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE. "

Not exactly sure what to make of this. I am not sure if this was about Katia or that system already in the gulf. Can someone dummy down this extended forecast discussion? lol

[cycloneye]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 12Z SUN SEP 04 2011 - 12Z WED SEP 07 2011

"THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENS MODEL GUIDANCE WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A STRENGTHENING UPR TROF ADVANCING THRU THE NORTH-CNTRL U.S. EARLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. SHARP HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ATOP AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COVERING A MAJORITY
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS DESTINED TO IMPACT AREAS
OF THE WESTERN AND CNTRL GULF OF MX DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOICE.
THE 00Z CMC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE CARRYING A POTENT H5 VORT MAX
INTO GALVESTON BAY BY 03/1200Z. SIMILARLY...THE 00Z UKMET ALSO
SHOWS A MODESTLY STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING COASTAL LA BY SUN
MORNING. AS THESE SOLNS WERE RATHER EXTREME WITH SPREAD THAT WAS
ON THE HIGHER END...THESE MODELS WERE REMOVED AS OUTLIERS. FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF WAS
UTILIZED BEFORE THE 00Z GFS BECAME A BIT MORE SUSPICIOUS. BY
SUN...THE 00Z GFS INDICATES A STRONG SFC CYCLONE SHOULD IMPACT THE
FL PANHANDLE WITH VERY FEW 12Z GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTING A LOCATION
THAT FAR TO THE EAST. IT ALSO DID NOT AGREE WELL WITH ITS
PRECEDING THREE RUNS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH A POTENT NE PAC SYSTEM ON MON WITH PRESSURES FCST TO BE MUCH
TOO DEEP. SO A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GLOBAL MEANS WAS
UTILIZED FOR DAYS 4/5. THEREAFTER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE GULF OF MX DISTURBANCE LEAD TO MORE
OF AN ENS APPROACH TO CONCLUDE THE PERIOD OF INTEREST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE FAVORED GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENS MEMBERS RESIDE IN THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN.
BUT...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS UTILIZED GIVEN THE FCST
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE. "

Not exactly sure what to make of this. I am not sure if this was about Katia or that system already in the gulf. Can someone dummy down this extended forecast discussion? lol

This is about the GOM disturbance. Going to move your post to the GOM homebrew thread at Talking Tropics forum.

Edit=Topic was moved from the Katia discussion thread to here.

[wxman57]

The focus of the model development appears to be moving northwestward across the northern Yucatan this morning. Rotation is evident aloft on IR and MIMIC loops:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Overnight model runs were not helpful at all. I don't buy the GFS solutions taking it NE to Florida.

[cycloneye]

Discussion by Rob of Crown Weather:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Potential Development In The Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend:
I wanted to start this morning’s discussion with the potential development this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico as it could end up being a bigger threat to the United States coastline than Katia. This development stems from a tropical disturbance now located over the northwestern Caribbean. This disturbance will track into the southern Gulf of Mexico within the next 24 to 36 hours and then slowly organize and develop late this week into this weekend as it heads towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. I fully expect this to become Tropical Storm Lee as it slowly tracks into the western and northwestern Caribbean by Sunday and Monday.

A trend in the guidance that I am seeing is that this system may meander around in the northern Gulf of Mexico within some very weak steering currents. The latest European model guidance foresees this potential with the future Lee nearly stalled in the western Gulf of Mexico from Monday through Wednesday before it tracks inland near Galveston and Houston next Thursday. This is something that needs to be monitored very closely for significant development as environmental conditions are quite favorable and ocean water temperatures are in the upper 80s throughout the Gulf of Mexico (I can attest to this extremely warm water as I took a dip in the Gulf of Mexico near Gulfport back in early July; it was the warmest ocean waters I have ever felt).

Hopefully in the end, this becomes a very much needed rain event for southeastern Texas, however, we need to be extremely vigilant for the fact that the Gulf of Mexico is very warm and tropical systems near the Texas coast have a history of developing and intensifying very quickly near the Texas coast.

I will be monitoring this tropical disturbance very closely over the coming days and will keep you all updated.

[PauleinHouston]

The focus of the model development appears to be moving northwestward across the northern Yucatan this morning. Rotation is evident aloft on IR and MIMIC loops:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Overnight model runs were not helpful at all. I don't buy the GFS solutions taking it NE to Florida.

Wxman...what are your thoughts on this system as far as development? Models are everywhere like dice on a crap table, so I give them little to no regard at the moment, but try and focus more on the ridge/trough/frontal and weakness movements in the U.S. over the next week or so which will guide where this "eventual" system goes...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 985 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[wxman57]

Wxman...what are your thoughts on this system as far as development? Models are everywhere like dice on a crap table, so I give them little to no regard at the moment, but try and focus more on the ridge/trough/frontal and weakness movements in the U.S. over the next week or so which will guide where this "eventual" system goes...

About 70%, but not much chance until Friday PM/Saturday. I agree with the NHC assessment of 10% through 7am Friday.

[underthwx]

first part of morning dissc...

Houston NWS disco:

ALL RIGHT...THE PART OF THE FORECAST EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW
ABOUT. IS IT GOING TO RAIN THIS WEEKEND OR NOT? IF YOU LIVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...YOU WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING AT
LEAST A FEW DROPS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW TO SAY
THE LEAST....






morning houston forecast discussion leads me to believe that the only thing that spells relief is rolaids...seems bleak for rain in our state at the moment...but ive got the faith...more importantly...good morning people..






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

Strange Euro run in that it develops a hurricane off the carolina coast in one day which merges with Katia. This sort of follows the GFS of at least a piece of energy breaking off and moving east. I don't think the models have settled down on this one yet. It may still eventually get pushed east as a large continental high pressure will start pushing down over the central US later in the period.

I saw that and I have to think the Euro is off sitting a TC in the western Gulf for 6 days. One would expect an eastward or northern motion with the fronts dropping southward.

[gboudx]

From jeff.

Weekend:
Now for the fun part! Uncertainty abounds with this system still this morning!
 
All models still develop some kind of tropical system in the NW/W/N Gulf this weekend and linger it around for a few to several days. Still do not think any one of the models has a better solution than the other. CMC dump the system altogether yesterday and now brings a hurricane to the upper TX coast. ECMWF develops a low off of KBRO and drifts it ENE and then SW and then around the middle of next week sends it back NW as a hurricane into the upper TX/SW LA coast. GFS develops a system off of S LA and moves it eastward toward NW FL. NAM continues to be aggressive in the short term and brings a strong TS toward Galveston Bay and then moves it slightly inland only to send it back offshore. Will not follow any of the guidance solutions, even though the ECMWF and NAM do have support from the GFS ensembles.
 
Will instead go with the general idea of a broad surface low forming somewhere in the central or NW Gulf late Friday and moving very slowly NW toward the middle/upper TX coast. System will likely slow/stall/meander near or offshore through much of the weekend before either moving WSW toward the lower/middle coast or turning NE toward the upper coast/SW LA. Would give slightly more credit to the WSW motion, but it may not be enough to get it inland as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF in which the system is left over the Gulf into the middle of next week getting stronger and stronger. System looks very large (broad) over the weekend and will likely be fairly disorganized at first. Point must continue to be made that the forecast is of little confidence and just about anything is possible, ,this is going to be a slow moving system that will have a prolonged impact for some areas. It is not going anywhere fast!
 
Impacts:
Will keep impacts general as there is so much uncertainty with the formation, track, and intensity that these aspects will certainly change over the next few days.
 
Will go with increasing rain chances Thursday-Monday if nothing else just for the increase in moisture. Should a surface low develop south or SW of the upper TX coast onshore flow on the east and north sides of the system would bring frequent squalls and rain bands, while a system developing S of LA would draw dry air southward cutting off rain chances. I am leaning toward the wetter side of things, but keeping those rain chances close to the coast (south of I-10) for now.
 
Another potential will be tides. Models are forecasting a decent pressure gradient to develop over the northern Gulf as pressures lower in the western Gulf. Long fetch ESE to SE wind on the east side of the possible tropical system will support both an increase in seas and tides. Seas will build into the 3-5 foot range by Saturday and 5-8 feet over the weekend (possibly higher). Favorable wind direction will support water movement toward the coast and expect the response to be increasing tides over the weekend. Tides could run 1-2 feet above normal over the weekend due to increasing swells and the favorable wind direction. Should the tropical system develop to our south these numbers will need to be bumped up some. There is the potential for a prolonged coastal flooding event given the very slow nature of this system, but how high both the seas and tides will go are uncertain until it can be determined where the surface low will likely form. Pattern is very similar to TS Frances 1998 which brought a prolonged storm surge of 6-8 feet to the upper TX coast over several days.
 
I would encourage residents to continue to monitor the weather forecasts for this weekend and early next week closely as rapid changes may be required depending on the evolution of the Gulf system.  

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS consistent again east along the northern gulf coast into the FL panhandle.

The synoptics with the front and movement ENE makes sense. This may very well turn out to be a NE GOM problem.

[underthwx]

LONG TERM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
414 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2011.....
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BUT DIFFER ON
POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE GFS IS VERY BULLISH AND TAKES A WELL
DEVELOPED SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ON LABOR DAY. THIS
SCENARIO IS THE OUTLIER WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND IT WAS JUST
24 HOURS AGO THAT THE GFS WAS TAKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO TEXAS.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH DIRECTION THIS SYSTEM MOVES...TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND WILL KEEP THE ALREADY
ADVERTISED HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...UNTIL WE GET BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WE
WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE WIND FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND LEAN CLOSER TO THE 12Z EURO. ALL OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY PUT A CAP ON MAX TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BUT DIFFER ON
POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE GFS IS VERY BULLISH AND TAKES A WELL
DEVELOPED SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ON LABOR DAY. THIS
SCENARIO IS THE OUTLIER WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND IT WAS JUST
24 HOURS AGO THAT THE GFS WAS TAKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO TEXAS.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH DIRECTION THIS SYSTEM MOVES...TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND WILL KEEP THE ALREADY
ADVERTISED HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...UNTIL WE GET BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WE
WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE WIND FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND LEAN CLOSER TO THE 12Z EURO. ALL OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY PUT A CAP ON MAX TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

makes sense to me..if a system forms in the west gulf....then gets pushed towards east in response to a front possibly moving into Texas(which is up in the air at the moment?).....seems more logical to me...correct me if im wrong...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.