Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[djmikey]

Who thinks the this will go east like some models are suggesting? IMO, possible, but gen consensus bring closer to western LA and Tx...

[jasons2k]

My hunch is that it will move NW and then basically stall offshore south of Freeport to Cameron, then possibly move WSW or even loop before making a landfall (or 2nd landfall) on the Upper TX coast or SW La. I think it op GFS is wrong and the ensembles are closer to reality. I have low confidence in this right now and anything can happen, but I'm not buying the idea of the NE Gulf at this time.

[txwxpirate]

I have a hunch we'll either get no rain
or this thing will get into the hot GOM and
we'll get more than tons of rain

I think that covers it?????

[Rgv20]

My hunch is that it will move NW and then basically stall offshore south of Freeport to Cameron, then possibly move WSW or even loop before making a landfall (or 2nd landfall) on the Upper TX coast or SW La. I think it op GFS is wrong and the ensembles are closer to reality. I have low confidence in this right now and anything can happen, but I'm not buying the idea of the NE Gulf at this time.

Im leaning the same way but I think it would continue drifting WSW kind of like the 0zCMC but more in line like the ECMWF run a couple of days ago....which showed paralleling almost the entire Texas Coast.

[Flyinman]

A piece from The Weather Channel:

"Closer to the U.S., we have a more immediate concern. Depicted in the graphic below over the northwest Caribbean is a tropical disturbance with collocated shower and thunderstorm activity. Numerous computer models forecast that this system could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later this week as it makes a move towards the western Gulf of Mexico.

It's too early to say what impacts this system may have, but residents and those with plans along the Gulf Coast late this week into the Labor Day weekend should monitor the situation closely, particularly in Texas and Louisiana."

We will see if us Westerner's luck out. Just hope we do not have sustained winds with all the dead trees around.

[underthwx]

would a prolonged heavy rain event effects be worse on already saturated soil...or drought-condition type soil?....as far as flash flooding...tree damage..etc....





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

would a prolonged heavy rain event effects be worse on already saturated soil...or drought-condition type soil?....as far as flash flooding...tree damage..etc....





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

well flash floodling on dry dusty soil is a huge problem.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +72 is picking up on something

[Stormcenter]

Whatever is starting to slowly take shape in the NW Carribean/Southern GOM.
It looks like at least it will be a serious rainmaker for somewhere.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[underthwx]

Whatever is starting to slowly take shape in the NW Carribean/Southern GOM.
It looks like at least it will be a serious rainmaker for somewhere.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

almost looks like its meetin in the middle of the GOM from three directions...the BOC..Westward from the Florida Peninsula..and the Carribean..when I look at that loop...Port..please tell me i quoted properly..





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS holds serve...intensifying system heading for the north central Gulf coast



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[Aric Dunn]

12z nogaps now in line with what I have been thinking.. along with the GFS, NAM and CMC. euro is the outlier now.. unless 12z changes.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[tailgater]

I gotta go to work now but I'm suprised they haven't made this an Invest yet, Just to make sure this doesn't do something stupid. It takes a while to evac. all those rigs and the northern gulf coast is likely to see a strong pressure gradient IF something does develop.

[Ivanhater]

It just stalls out...talk about flooding



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[Ivanhater]

12z GFS...126 HOURS



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[Ivanhater]

Landfall Pensacola Tuesday



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[Stormcenter]

Now that looks serious.

So much for Texas getting any relief from this possible system if that were
to pan out.

12z GFS...126 HOURS

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/4246/12zgfsp72126.gif

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*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags from quote

[Aric Dunn]

There definately appears to be a low forming in this general area. starting to see some westerly flow far to the south and ne flow to the west of the circle. not likely at the surface except for the strong southerly flow and east. its heading off to NW like the 12z guidance say it should. also 12z guidance develops it within 36 hours. earlier than previous runs..

[southerngale]

Early morning thoughts from Lake Charles NWS:

A DISORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE APPROACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN AN AREA THAT TPC GIVES A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...THAT
WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...AND ALSO HELP LOWER DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT.

RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...AND THAT IS WHY MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND CMC ARE
DISCOUNTED. IN THE MID TERM...THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST TO LOOK AT...AS IT IS REALLY CLOSE TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN THIS SCENARIO...A SURFACE LOW
GRADUALLY DEVELOPS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF EAST OF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY...AND MEANDERS AROUND THE NORTHWEST GULF
STAYING OFF THE EAST TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW A GRADIENT TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...WITH A DECENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FROM I-10 TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS POINT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IF A PROLONGED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH
DOES DEVELOP...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME WATER PILING ALONG THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGHER TIDES BETWEEN 1/2
AND 1 FOOT...AGAIN SUBJECT TO CHANCE ONCE POSITION OR STRENGTH OF
SURFACE LOW...IF IT DOES DEVELOP...COMES ABOUT.

[lostsole]

Landfall Pensacola Tuesday

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/8901/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltropl.gif

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What size are the models predicting? (Im in Pensacola) Because I just worry about storm surge and wind, rain never matters in pensacola that much, I have seen it rain 24inches from a spring storm and run right off.



*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags from quote