Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[djmikey]

So is the consensus now that this will be an EGOM event? If so I'm totally BUMED... Texas can't take it.

I aswell am getting very mixed reoprts... is thing going to be a trend or can us Texans STILL hope for "something"?

[gboudx]

So is the consensus now that this will be an EGOM event? If so I'm totally BUMED... Texas can't take it.

In this amateurs opinion, the only consensus so far is that something will develop. The "how strong" and "where will it go" are far from consensus at this point.

[N2Storms]

[quote="HouTXmetro"]So is the consensus now that this will be an EGOM event? If so I'm totally BUMED... Texas can't take it.[/quote]



I haven't seen anything to suggest that. Most most models favor W. GOM and the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The consensus is still a Tx / La event. So far there only seem to be a couple of models hinting at this being an EGOM event.

[Aric Dunn]

So is the consensus now that this will be an EGOM event? If so I'm totally BUMED... Texas can't take it.

In this amateurs opinion, the only consensus so far is that something will develop. The "how strong" and "where will it go" are far from consensus at this point.

well its start developing in the eastern gulf rather than the western. basically just developing earlier. it should still approach the texas coast and i imagine decent rain with it.

[psyclone]

So is the consensus now that this will be an EGOM event? If so I'm totally BUMED... Texas can't take it.

way too soon for you guys to throw in the towel. i sure don't want it here. we're already too wet and i want some good beach weather for the weekend. so, i'm willing all my rain to the parched western gulf. good luck

[Ivanhater]

Usually with slow moving tropical systems in the Gulf, the bulk of the heavy rain is on the eastern side of the circulation, unless this gets stronger than indicated. Best news for Texas is if this hugs the Central Texas coast. GFS would give almost nothing to Texas unfortunantly.

[Aric Dunn]

Seems to getting the surface reflection going pretty quick today around 23.67° N 87.75° W

easily seen here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html


or here can closer with this page though.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[underthwx]

im good with an end or lowering of the hightemps...if it means an inch or two...so be it...it is what it is....think last time i checked we are at 30% by fri./sat..better than zero..

[cycloneye]

30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Ivanhater]

Interesting how they hint outside the 48 hour window

[Comanche]

If SE Texas doesn't see at least a couple inches out of this, people will go POSTAL!!!!!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

notice it shifted from western gulf yesterday to eastern and central today.. and the 30% is a good number considering the developing low in the southern gulf.

[Florida1118]

Also they say STC or TC. Didnt think this would become ST...

[Ivanhater]

Current image

[setxwxgurl]

If SE Texas doesn't see at least a couple inches out of this, people will go POSTAL!!!!!!!!

Yeah like me!!!!

[Stormcenter]

If this develops will it have to deal with shear in the GOM?

Would it be purely tropical or hybrid?

[BigB0882]

What makes a storm subtropical?

[Snow Deprived365]

When does a system get an invest?

[djmikey]

If SE Texas doesn't see at least a couple inches out of this, people will go POSTAL!!!!!!!!

I think MANY Texasns will!

[underthwx]

recon is sched.....i dont know how to post it..if anyone is interested..