ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

I haven't been following 93L that closely. All I know I that we have a forming system in the Gulf and that a 5 year old spilled his spagetti. Should I be watching this in Tampa?

[Aric Dunn]

here is the center.. still not well defined but there it is.. probably going to start bending to the SW shortly as convection fires to the NE of it and it gets pulled back or reforms near it..

use this
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

or
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Ivanhater]

Interesting that, though the models look like someone just went wild with a box of crayons, they all agree it will not give any significant rain to central Texas. Story of the year -____-

Don't jump off the ledge just yet ... we have a long ways to go on this system!

Exactly, if this just bumps around in the Gulf, someone is going to get a huge amount of rain. There is no way to tell where this stalls or moves around. Texas could be dry or completely flooded.

[underthwx]

Aric...forgive me if youve already been asked this...is there alot of shear in the NW Gulf?..




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[otowntiger]

So strange, 0z GFS Ensembles still take this to the east.........


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _Loop.html

Even more noteworthy in my opininon is the fact that it dissapates it in the middle of the gulf before it makes landfall anywhere.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric...forgive me if youve already been asked this...is there alot of shear in the NW Gulf?..




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

presently yes. but that should start decreasing later today and tonight.

[BigA]

So strange, 0z GFS Ensembles still take this to the east.........


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _Loop.html

Even more noteworthy in my opininon is the fact that it dissapates it in the middle of the gulf before it makes landfall anywhere.

I don't think the individual ensemble members dissipate it. Rather, the ensembles become so spread out that the average of the low pressure areas becomes ill defined.

[Ivanhater]

I don't think I have ever seen a case where the operational goes the opposite direction from all the ensemble members!



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[sphelps8681]

What time will recon fly out today? Is it still scheduled to do so. Maybe they will be able to get lots of good data so these models can start giving us a better idea of what is in store.

[Tireman4]

[quote="Ivanhater"]I don't think I have ever seen a case where the operational goes the opposite direction from all the ensemble members!

My three year old been at the model output center again...LOL

[Aric Dunn]

What time will recon fly out today? Is it still scheduled to do so. Maybe they will be able to get lots of good data so these models can start giving us a better idea of what is in store.

think it takes of in an hour.

[Nederlander]

Could someone explain something for me? The LLC seems to have formed much further north than where the models are initializing at, no? I seem to agree with ROCK that this thing looks like its sprinting for the shoreline.. So will we see it hitting the brakes later today?

[underthwx]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011547
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED TO GIVE AN UPDATE ON THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF BERMUDA.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS
ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

UPDATED...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH
OF BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW IS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

[quote="Aric Dunn"]here is the center.. still not well defined but there it is.. probably going to start bending to the SW shortly as convection fires to the NE of it and it gets pulled back or reforms near it..

use this
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

or
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

]http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/6796/rgbdd.jpgquote]

There could also be a circulation in the convection and what is circled is an eddy

[tailgater]

LLC appears to be setting up near 26N/90W.

This is for sure one time, that I'm glad I'm not in your shoes. Almost nothing cut and dry about this one.

True enough Wxman, except the Euro is not on that map and takes it NE like the HWRF.

Doesn't the Euro take it west and then up and down the Texas coast... Then off to the NE into La in like 6 or 7 days..

Yeah that would make me thimk about leaving and I'm well inland.

[KatDaddy]

Coastal Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches hoisted for LA.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...

.A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING TO THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CURRENTLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURING OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INCREASES.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...INCREASING
WAVES WITH PERIODS GREATER THAN 8 SECONDS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
WATER LEVEL RISES. AS A RESULT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP...SOME AREAS MAY SEE A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT FALL IN WATER LEVELS LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

LAZ051>054-TXZ215-020300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.CF.A.0001.110902T0600Z-110903T0600Z/
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-JEFFERSON-
1016 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.


* COASTAL FLOODING: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: INCREASING TIDES AND WAVE ACTION MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND CAUSE AT LEAST SOME OVERWASH
OF COASTAL HIGHWAYS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Aric, do you see the possibilty that this could reform a center further south and east near 25/87 under the deeper convection?

[pwrdog]

I see another little spin just south of what others are showing...

No doubt it could reform a few times....

[southerngale]

Coastal Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches hoisted for LA.

And Jefferson County in SE TX

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, do you see the possibilty that this could reform a center further south and east near 25/87 under the deeper convection?

well its such a over all broad circ that where ever convection forms the center could reform there.. right now everything to the east of the area i have circled as southerly winds so should not really see much reformation back there.. rather this current circ should rotate wsw then back east as convection re-fires to its east. in a cyclonic loops with perhaps a little reformation as it approaches the convection.