ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1641 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:04 pm

Yeah the fact that alot of models are suggesting at least a slight bend back does tend to lead to confidence that its on the table. I can understand the NHC sticking with a straight NW for now in the latter part of thier forecasts, but many more runs with that bend back and they'll slowly shift the end of the forecast back west.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re:

#1642 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:05 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Anyone wanna tell Jevo hes posting in wrong thread? lol

Think you just did.. lol
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1643 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:05 pm

h72
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#1644 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:10 pm

well thats new by the gfs.... the ridging move west with her which is whats been happening the last couple which effectively closes the weakens.. and now the low off NC is weaker... at 81 hours she is west and south of the 12z by about 100 miles.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#1645 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:11 pm

Am i posting in the wrong thread? :ggreen: :cheesy:
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1646 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:12 pm

h96
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re:

#1647 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well thats new by the gfs.... the ridging move west with her which is whats been happening the last couple which effectively closes the weakens.. and now the low off NC is weaker... at 81 hours she is west and south of the 12z by about 100 miles.


Yeah I see that, will it finally bend it west like some the other reliable models? Ridging is building in over top and in tandem as it moves WNW.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Re:

#1648 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well thats new by the gfs.... the ridging move west with her which is whats been happening the last couple which effectively closes the weakens.. and now the low off NC is weaker... at 81 hours she is west and south of the 12z by about 100 miles.


Yeah I see that, will it finally bend it west like some the other reliable models? Ridging is building in over top and in tandem as it moves WNW.


yes it is.. that low is finally getting kicked out at 100 hours too.. geez still slower than the other models kicking it out... the run is another trend west so far.. about 100 to 120 miles SW of the 12z run
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#1649 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:18 pm

+96 is looking saucy

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1650 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:18 pm

h120
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2401
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:
Contact HenkL

#1651 Postby HenkL » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:19 pm

For anyone looking for data about comparing model performance:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

(note: there is nothing there focused on tropical systems alone)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

Re:

#1652 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:19 pm

GFS is deifnitly W of 12z... Question is does she die out before hitting these points.
Last edited by Jevo on Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1653 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:21 pm

Troughs abit quicker but also not quite as sharp at the moment, looking at the pattern in the E.coast, it still doesn't look that condusive to a landfall...what it does look to me is it gets further west then most of us first thought.

94L should provide enough energy to form its on weak troughing once it heads further north and even if the lower levels get left behind, I think that is waht will sweep up Katia...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#1654 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:24 pm

Lee connecting with the trough dragging it down into the SE?

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1655 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:24 pm

h144

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: Re:

#1656 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm

Jevo wrote:


I must be slacking.. Meriland took my job :lol: :lol:


haha im sorry :S. Well I thought I would get it out there since I was on the site anyway lol. I guess you can say that faded F button you been talking about gets a break haha.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
HurricaneWarning92
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:33 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, S. Florida (Lat: 26.00N, Lon: 80.22W)

#1657 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm

:uarrow: there we go, the GFS is slowly getting the memo... :lol:
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1658 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm

Future Lee will likely pump up the ridge somewhat between 60-70W, but the key is how long it takes to get eastwards, once the upper trough that has formed thanks to Lee moves NE around the main upper trough WAY north that should be enough to take it out to sea.

Howver there is enough uncertainty about timing and strength of both 94L and Katia at the moment for everyone to be very cautious now.

IF it takes too long to occur and Katia is further south it could well be a threat...
Last edited by KWT on Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#1659 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm

Unrelated to Katia, but jeez...that GFS scenario for future 'Lee'...it would be an Allison event all over again.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1660 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:28 pm

This is intended for the models thread. It's the GFS 850vort/500mb heights and 200mb winds

Actually if you look at the loop it's not recurving. It's actually starting to move more westward and there is a ridge building on top of it.

http://tinyurl.com/3etr6u6
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests