ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Jevo
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Re: Re:

#1661 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:28 pm

meriland23 wrote:
Jevo wrote:


I must be slacking.. Meriland took my job :lol: :lol:


haha im sorry :S. Well I thought I would get it out there since I was on the site anyway lol. I guess you can say that faded F button you been talking about gets a break haha.


heheh no worries :) .. Work is killing me atm.. im glad someone picked up the slack
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#1662 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:30 pm

Looks like it is beelining for the Carolinas, will it turn?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
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#1663 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:31 pm

h168 this looks like a close encounter
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#1664 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:32 pm

trough is coming in though, looks like Carolinas might be saved at the last minute...though huge west shift from GFS.

I think NHC track will bend more WNW at the 11pmEST advisory now that the GFS and ECMWF have made big shifts west.......

kudos may be needed for NOGAPs, CMC, and UKMET for sniffing out the pattern if it verifies.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... NA168.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1665 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:32 pm

Close encounter indeed.
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Re:

#1666 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:33 pm

gatorcane wrote:trough is coming in though, looks like Carolinas might be saved at the last minute...though huge west shift from GFS.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... NA168.html


Yes Carolina you have been saved by the 18z GFS 7 days out! lol
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#1667 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:34 pm

Gonna show you guys every few hrs or so instead of 24 now so you get a good idea.

h177

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#1668 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:35 pm

Okay its turning, probably will miss the East Coast of United States, but wow what a shift west folks... :eek:
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#1669 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:35 pm

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Umm, Hello? Miami?


Or am I missing something?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1670 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:36 pm

Looks like it develops a cut-off low in the Mid-West.
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#1671 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:36 pm

h180

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Re: Re:

#1672 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:36 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:trough is coming in though, looks like Carolinas might be saved at the last minute...though huge west shift from GFS.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... NA168.html


Yes Carolina you have been saved by the 18z GFS 7 days out! lol


Looks like Lee saves em if this verifies.. Pulls that trough wayy down into GA
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#1673 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:36 pm

West trend too pronounced to ignore. It's going to be another long week ahead.
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#1674 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:36 pm

ECm and GFS handle the upper trough in totally different way, the GFS induces a cutoff upper trough/low whilst the ECM focuses all the energy into the main upper trough which then goes to produce a quick recurve.

These are huge differences in terms of potenial threat to the US, the former would jump the threat from 5% to 50%+.
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#1675 Postby hurricanetrack » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:37 pm

Gotta watch that huge cut off low at 500mb. If that comes to pass, why wouldn't Katia just pinwheel on in? This is how Fran got here but from a more SE track in. This is really interesting to say the least.
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#1676 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:37 pm

Finally the gfs is on board with the turn... NHC will follow suit at 11pm

the GFS is still having a lot of trouble with that low off NC it gets too far north because it thinks its going to be there for 5 days.. also the end of run with lee and the trough coming in and the energy being dragged down the back side of the flow around lee.. seem odd that it would not just kick lee out ..
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#1677 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:38 pm

The less latitude it gains now the bigger the threat may well be down the line, though funnily enough it may slightly reduce the threat to areas much further north, esp NF/NS.
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#1678 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:38 pm

h189

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1679 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:38 pm

Don't you think that cut-off low in the Midwest is a little suspect? It's fairly large and retrogrades westward.
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#1680 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:38 pm

OK, just misses the east coast of the United States....headed NNE to NE not too far east of New York.

Close call though.

By the way look how strong the ridge is that builds in behind it.....Bermuda High looking quite strong there.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... NA192.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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