ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

h204

[SouthFloridawx]

Finally the gfs is on board with the turn... NHC will follow suit at 11pm

the GFS is still having a lot of trouble with that low off NC it gets too far north because it thinks its going to be there for 5 days.. also the end of run with lee and the trough coming in and the energy being dragged down the back side of the flow around lee.. seem odd that it would not just kick lee out ..

Basically a cutoff low forms, pulls in "Lee" and then becomes rather large and retrogrades westward. Hmmm?

[Aric Dunn]

like earlier I bet the ensemble members shift farther west again.. maybe more over the SE this time

[hurricanetrack]

Also remember too that this is over a week away. If it has trended this far west now, one has to wonder if that will just continue. Think of Irene and how it trended and trended and trended. It finally settled on what eventually happened. If that low gets out of the way a day or two sooner, who knows how far west this could track. We will be watching quite closely.

[KWT]

That set-up FWIW screams a pattern for US landfalls...and Caribbean threats.

Very close call!

[Aric Dunn]

Finally the gfs is on board with the turn... NHC will follow suit at 11pm

the GFS is still having a lot of trouble with that low off NC it gets too far north because it thinks its going to be there for 5 days.. also the end of run with lee and the trough coming in and the energy being dragged down the back side of the flow around lee.. seem odd that it would not just kick lee out ..

Basically a cutoff low forms, pulls in "Lee" and then becomes rather large and retrogrades westward. Hmmm?

yeah thats not very believable at that lat this time of year .. and it does not pull it in .. ridging build north of as the low of NC lifts out and that trough that picked it up lifts out..

[meriland23]

Also remember too that this is over a week away. If it has trended this far west now, one has to wonder if that will just continue. Think of Irene and how it trended and trended and trended. It finally settled on what eventually happened. If that low gets out of the way a day or two sooner, who knows how far west this could track. We will be watching quite closely.

I was thinking the same exact thing.

[BigA]

18Z NOGAPS: knocking at the door of the southeast



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[Meteorcane]

Wow the GFS has basically trended west all day I wonder if the 00z run (my personal favorite GFS run) continues the trend (if it does it would practically show an East Coast landfall.

[gatorcane]

Wow the NOGAPs has been so consistent I noticed. Bahamas and South Florida after that?

[Aric Dunn]

Wow the NOGAPs has been so consistent I noticed. Bahamas and South Florida after that?

depends on the ridging.. I cant look at secure sites anyone have a nogaps link that is not a secure website ?

[meriland23]

18Z NOGAPS: knocking at the door of the southeast

http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/9669/ngp10prp180troplant.gif

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These maps, I noticed that, even tho it is CLEARLY more westward.. the strength forecasts are very low. One all models, I may be reading it wrong, but like this picture above, and gfs, ukmet, etc, the mb pressure looks extremely high in the center.

[cpdaman]

the longer this takes to gain latitude the more i wonder if the furthest north islands in the E. caribean could get a lil more than forecast from katia. i.e anguilla antigua st. martin etc

[Jevo]

NOGAPS is living up to its name and creating No Gaps in the ridging like the GFS did aas it pulled the trough down late in the forecast period..

[Tommedic]

Have to wonder if the fact that Katia has been seen in models as being weaker than we expected and that is why more westward on movement. We really need more data from aircraft or buoys. Maybe we need to help Mark with Hurricanetrack.com get a ship and send him into storm. <LOL>

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow the NOGAPs has been so consistent I noticed. Bahamas and South Florida after that?

depends on the ridging.. I cant look at secure sites anyone have a nogaps link that is not a secure website ?

Try this one...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_atlantic&set=All

[Meteorcane]

18Z NOGAPS: knocking at the door of the southeast

http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/9669/ngp10prp180troplant.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

These maps, I noticed that, even tho it is CLEARLY more westward.. the strength forecasts are very low. One all models, I may be reading it wrong, but like this picture above, and gfs, ukmet, etc, the mb pressure looks extremely high in the center.

Well first I don't believe the models actually show very low pressures well (and the hurricane specific models the HWRF and GFDL seem to be too bullish on many storms). Second the mid 970's pressure by the NOGAPS is not very high, it is indicative of a Cat.1 maybe Cat.2 hurricane.

[KWT]

Thats the way it worked with Earl, it just kept on trucking along at nearly the exact same latitude as Katia is now and only made the turn right at the last minute.

I think this will have abit more latitude, but not sure its going to gain as much as some models are expecting right now.

[Jevo]

Umm, Hello? Miami?


Or am I missing something?

That is the current steering and does not effect the direction of the storm 5-7 days down the line.. Its a snapshot of right now.. For future track information refer to the models thread associated with Katia. Lots of good information over there... Euro and GFS still turn her although a lot closer to the CONUS

[hipshot]

[quote="Aric Dunn"]new steering... ridging seems to be building in even stronger and building farther west. no turn until that changes.. ridging could be getting beefed up a little by the outflow from 94L and that low off NC. seems there is something thats helping stay farther south and not turn yet. if you remember the turn was already supposed to have started.. but instead in turned west.. lol

I am no expert but looking at these steering currents, I see no way it "should" take the turn to the NW as yet if at all for the next 2-3 days. JMHO though.