ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

h177

[SouthFLTropics]

At 120 hours starts moving west at around 26 north...High pressure sitting overhead of her...

I've seen this movie before somewhere!!!

SFT

It's kinda reminding me of Andrew in '92.

Tsk Tsk...Don't say the "A" word in here!!! I start to get twitches and have flashbacks!!!

SFT

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey meriland, check your pm's.

[meriland23]

h186

[meriland23]

h204

[meriland23]

h216 then she heads on out

[abajan]

Our local met (Miami) said this will NOT hit Florida.

He had better be right!

Did he say probably not? Or a definitive NO. Cause if he made such a bold statement and that does not follow through. There are going to be a lot of angry people and a lot of people staying behind because they took his word to heart. Making absolute certain claims this far out is nothing short of rediculous. Do most models project florida? No, but the chances of her recurving later and heading into the EC is becoming more and more or a reality as time passes. I think his statement was kind of irresponsible.

+1

You should've heard our weather presenter (not a meteorologist - just a presenter of the weather news) in 2004 emphatically stating that Ivan will pass (not would likely pass but will pass) well to the north of Barbados. Its eye eventually passed fairly far to our south (thankfully, because a number of roofs were blown off).

[SouthFLTropics]

This is a close call for the Outer Banks. If we see a further trend west in the next two runs or so I think the chances of a CONUS strike will go up dramatically. I'm still not sold on the slow movement of her between say hours 110 to 160. We are out past 5 days at this point in this model and I'm somewhat concerned for the CONUS. The trend has been west but we are not being hit 5 days out on the model. Personally I prefer to have the storm hitting me at 5 days out...because I know it will change. GFS had a target on my house for quite a while with Irene when she was 5+ days out...I felt pretty good because I knew it would change. When I'm not the target at that range but it's in my region I get concerned.

SFT

[bamajammer4eva]

That's comical, for a day or two there it looks like Lee and Katia form some sort of double barrel tropical cyclone.

[supercane]

haha really ... 16.7 n.. thats funny. its barely at 16n

What makes you think that? While ultimately morning vis would be helpful, data supporting the NHC's current location include:
Latest microwave imagery (poor resolution with AMSUB, but shows center north of 16N):

Latest ASCAT image:

Continuity from Dvorak fixes from 00Z, which were already north of 16N with an apparent WNW motion on IR satellite:
AL, 12, 201109012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1630N, 4980W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, EG, IM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=4.0 PT=3.5 FTBO DT
AL, 12, 201109012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 4980W, , 3, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, GR, I, 5, 3540 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

So I ask again, what evidence do you have that makes the current position so laughable?

edited by tolakram

[fci]

haha really ... 16.7 n.. thats funny. its barely at 16n

What makes you think that? While ultimately morning vis would be helpful, data supporting the NHC's current location include:
Latest microwave imagery (poor resolution with AMSUB, but shows center north of 16N):
http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/6252 ... ax891d.jpg
Latest ASCAT image:
http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/3336 ... katiaa.png
Continuity from Dvorak fixes from 00Z, which were already north of 16N with an apparent WNW motion on IR satellite:
AL, 12, 201109012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1630N, 4980W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, EG, IM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=4.0 PT=3.5 FTBO DT
AL, 12, 201109012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 4980W, , 3, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, GR, I, 5, 3540 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

So I ask again, what evidence do you have that makes the current position so laughable?

I think Aric signed off about 30 minutes ago.

From the models forum at 12:08 AM

well good night.. dont need to see anymore models since I know what they will say even if katia turns SW lol

So, he can't defend himself to you and comment on the points that you bring up.
You might prefer to send him a PM rather than flaming him on the board
Just my opinion........................

edited by tolakram: removed images!

[theweatherwatch]

haha really ... 16.7 n.. thats funny. its barely at 16n

What makes you think that? While ultimately morning vis would be helpful, data supporting the NHC's current location include:
Latest microwave imagery (poor resolution with AMSUB, but shows center north of 16N):
http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/6252 ... ax891d.jpg
Latest ASCAT image:
http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/3336 ... katiaa.png
Continuity from Dvorak fixes from 00Z, which were already north of 16N with an apparent WNW motion on IR satellite:
AL, 12, 201109012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1630N, 4980W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, EG, IM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=4.0 PT=3.5 FTBO DT
AL, 12, 201109012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 4980W, , 3, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, GR, I, 5, 3540 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

So I ask again, what evidence do you have that makes the current position so laughable?

I think Aric signed off about 30 minutes ago.

From the models forum at 12:08 AM

well good night.. dont need to see anymore models since I know what they will say even if katia turns SW lol

So, he can't defend himself to you and comment on the points that you bring up.
You might prefer to send him a PM rather than flaming him on the board
Just my opinion........................

Also he said it was Barely at 16 north which means according to him it is at 16 north or just north of there BUT NOT way up at almost 17 north (16.7).

edited by tolakram: removed images

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah the ascat does show barely 16...

[Cranica]

So, he can't defend himself to you and comment on the points that you bring up.
You might prefer to send him a PM rather than flaming him on the board
Just my opinion........................

Stating reasons why he's wrong is hardly "flaming".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Very impressive convective blowup over/near the center, but looking at the microwave she's still got a long way to go before assembling a core.

[fci]

So, he can't defend himself to you and comment on the points that you bring up.
You might prefer to send him a PM rather than flaming him on the board
Just my opinion........................

Stating reasons why he's wrong is hardly "flaming".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Very impressive convective blowup over/near the center, but looking at the microwave she's still got a long way to go before assembling a core.

I agree that stating reasons that the author thinks he is incorrect is fine.
This quote is what I was referring to, that I thought was "flaming" and better suited for a PM:

What makes you think that? IMO you shouldn't be so cavalier about things and write lol about everything you disagree with off, especially given your rise to moderator.

[SFLcane]

00z CMC & Navy Nogaps both recurve.

[supercane]

Operational GFS comparisons over the last 4 cycles; very similar to 18Z but as with 18Z farther west than the earlier runs:

[bexar]

Katia is literally circular via latest satellite presentation

[meriland23]

00z CMC & Navy Nogaps both recurve.

I am looking at both right now, it says at the bottom it is 00z 01/09/ and not 02/09. I might have a lagging model or something.

[SouthFloridawx]

00z CMC & Navy Nogaps both recurve.

I am looking at both right now, it says at the bottom it is 00z 01/09/ and not 02/09. I might have a lagging model or something.

Go to North Atlantic:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html