ROCK wrote:meriland23 wrote:HWRF shows the same things that cmc does
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
thats a close brush thats for sure....
no hwrf is way out to sea. That link is the run for Lee.
ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion
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maxintensity
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Re: Re:
no hwrf is way out to sea. That link is the run for Lee.
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Re: Re:
maxintensity wrote:ROCK wrote:meriland23 wrote:HWRF shows the same things that cmc does
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
thats a close brush thats for sure....
no hwrf is way out to sea. That link is the run for Lee.
no its not...this is the 0z HWRF.....doesnt matter if that was Lee or not.....its a very close.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical500mbSLP096.gif
96hr EURO looking like the previous run....curving out to see well offshore...
I do not see ? I am on americanwx and it is still showing the 4th on 0z
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
meriland23 wrote:ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical500mbSLP096.gif
96hr EURO looking like the previous run....curving out to see well offshore...
I do not see ? I am on americanwx and it is still showing the 4th on 0z
hit refresh....
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
120hr EURO.....well out to sea....
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif
nice little guy in the BOC....
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif
nice little guy in the BOC....
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meriland23
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kk I see now, alright lets see 144 lol
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif
bye Kat it was fun watching you.....and thanks for the ACE!!
bye Kat it was fun watching you.....and thanks for the ACE!!
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maxintensity
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Re: Re:
Yes it does matter if you open the link to the wrong storm. If you open the lee link, it shows katia making US landfall. If you open the katia link, it shows it missing the US.ROCK wrote:no its not...this is the 0z HWRF.....doesnt matter if that was Lee or not.....its a very close.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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meriland23
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Re: Re:
maxintensity wrote:Yes it does matter if you open the link to the wrong storm. If you open the lee link, it shows katia making US landfall. If you open the katia link, it shows it missing the US.ROCK wrote:no its not...this is the 0z HWRF.....doesnt matter if that was Lee or not.....its a very close.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
Strange, why would they do that?
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP144.gif
bye Kat it was fun watching you.....and thanks for the ACE!!
lul I don't know, I think we are just getting to know her
personal opinion lol.
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Re: Re:
maxintensity wrote:Yes it does matter if you open the link to the wrong storm. If you open the lee link, it shows katia making US landfall. If you open the katia link, it shows it missing the US.ROCK wrote:no its not...this is the 0z HWRF.....doesnt matter if that was Lee or not.....its a very close.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
lets not split hairs here....regardless of what storm you are looking at KAT makes a close call to the NE.....
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Re: Re:
meriland23 wrote:maxintensity wrote:Yes it does matter if you open the link to the wrong storm. If you open the lee link, it shows katia making US landfall. If you open the katia link, it shows it missing the US.ROCK wrote:no its not...this is the 0z HWRF.....doesnt matter if that was Lee or not.....its a very close.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
Strange, why would they do that?
just looking at a different perspective is all....Kat gets very close...
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Jevo
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Let me be the one to order up a big plate of crow here in case im wrong.... The GFS is East... the Euro is east of the CONUS... Katia is going to cause some high surf... but stay a fish. Putting stock in models that have not performed in 5+ years is kinda pushing it... ie the UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC...
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maxintensity
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Re:
Jevo wrote:Let me be the one to order up a big plate of crow here in case im wrong.... The GFS is East... the Euro is east of the CONUS... Katia is going to cause some high surf... but stay a fish. Putting stock in models that have not performed in 5+ years is kinda pushing it... ie the UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC...
boo. GFS and Euro take all the fun out of it. They just have to be so stubbornly right and refuse to throw us some red meat just for fun once in a awhile. Cmc and ukmet are fun. Kinda miss the good old days of uncertainty.
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion
hope this isn't TOO far off topic...
When we were preparing for Irene, the Weather Channel would highlight the day they expected landfall on their 7 day outlook graphic that ran during "local on the 8s", with a caption at the bottom, white on red background "watching the tropics on (whatever day of the week it was). For more information, go to http://www.weather.com" . Now that Katia is the storm to watch, I've noticed them doing the same thing again, highlighting and mentioning this coming Thursday as the "target" day to watch the tropics.
Given what the models all seem to agree is going to happen with this storm, why would the Weather Channel EVER want to hype a non-existent situation, given what the folks here and others have just gone through? "There oughta be a law" doesn't cover it.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled topic.
When we were preparing for Irene, the Weather Channel would highlight the day they expected landfall on their 7 day outlook graphic that ran during "local on the 8s", with a caption at the bottom, white on red background "watching the tropics on (whatever day of the week it was). For more information, go to http://www.weather.com" . Now that Katia is the storm to watch, I've noticed them doing the same thing again, highlighting and mentioning this coming Thursday as the "target" day to watch the tropics.
Given what the models all seem to agree is going to happen with this storm, why would the Weather Channel EVER want to hype a non-existent situation, given what the folks here and others have just gone through? "There oughta be a law" doesn't cover it.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled topic.
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WeatherGuesser
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion
GlennOBX wrote:why would the Weather Channel EVER want to hype a non-existent situation,
Ratings. People really need to stop watching that 'channel'. They stopped focusing on weather over two years ago.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Advisories
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011
THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF KATIA APPEARS TO HAVE GONE
THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANGES...WITH A NET DECREASE IN
ORGANIZATION NOTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN EYE THAT WAS
EVIDENT EARLIER IS NO LONGER APPARENT...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
DRY AIR HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT...WITH A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW SINK TO THE
NORTHEAST. A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB IS
LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT.
THE CENTER OF KATIA HAS BEEN WOBBLING. SMOOTHING OF RECENT FIXES
YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/10. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SHOW KATIA ROUNDING THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF BERMUDA...HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FURTHER WESTWARD PROGRESS
IS LIKELY TO BE BLOCKED AS KATIA IS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. ONCE KATIA GAINS ENOUGH
LATITUDE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN
STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE
YESTERDAY AND NOW FAVORS A RECURVATURE SCENARIO ROUGHLY ALONG
70W...WITH EVEN THE LEFT-LEANING UKMET/ECMWF MODELS NOW SHIFTING
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW
QUICKLY KATIA WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
MAJOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72
HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS MUCH FASTER TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...KATIA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE
FACTORS THAT COULD INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THIS
TIME ARE LOW MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A LOWERING OF THE
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WARMING ALOFT. AFTER 96
HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY OF KATIA TO A STRONG
GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 23.9N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 25.0N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 26.3N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 27.5N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 28.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 31.4N 70.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 35.5N 69.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011
THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF KATIA APPEARS TO HAVE GONE
THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANGES...WITH A NET DECREASE IN
ORGANIZATION NOTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN EYE THAT WAS
EVIDENT EARLIER IS NO LONGER APPARENT...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
DRY AIR HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT...WITH A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW SINK TO THE
NORTHEAST. A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB IS
LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT.
THE CENTER OF KATIA HAS BEEN WOBBLING. SMOOTHING OF RECENT FIXES
YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/10. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SHOW KATIA ROUNDING THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF BERMUDA...HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FURTHER WESTWARD PROGRESS
IS LIKELY TO BE BLOCKED AS KATIA IS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. ONCE KATIA GAINS ENOUGH
LATITUDE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN
STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE
YESTERDAY AND NOW FAVORS A RECURVATURE SCENARIO ROUGHLY ALONG
70W...WITH EVEN THE LEFT-LEANING UKMET/ECMWF MODELS NOW SHIFTING
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW
QUICKLY KATIA WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
MAJOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72
HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS MUCH FASTER TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...KATIA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE
FACTORS THAT COULD INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THIS
TIME ARE LOW MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A LOWERING OF THE
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WARMING ALOFT. AFTER 96
HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY OF KATIA TO A STRONG
GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 23.9N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 25.0N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 26.3N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 27.5N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 28.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 31.4N 70.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 35.5N 69.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Almost like a truck tire, or a doughnut... is it going to be a... nah. 
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