ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

EURO has been the better model this year.

You cannot deny KING EURO of his dominance.

12z HWRF tracks it north of the islands as a very weak disturbance, possibly an open wave.

[Gustywind]

Maria approaching the screen...

[clfenwi]

12Z CMC at 144h



Loop

[Aric Dunn]

That is one crazy NNW turn.... lol with ridging to the north. both in the low levels and mid levels.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[AdamFirst]

That is one crazy NNW turn.... lol with ridging to the north. both in the low levels and mid levels.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Looks like it's contingent on the track of 96L-future Nate.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

yeah about the only way this can impact the United States is if it stays very weak (opens back up into a wave), traverses the Caribbean and waits until redeveloping until near Jamaica or South of Cuba.

That weakness is so huge across the Western Atlantic north of the islands and it looks like the ridging the models showed this past weekend is not materializing....

My guess is that the GFS/CMC/HWRF solutions may be more realistic, given it is already a tropical storm.

So I am leaning towards it recurving east of the Bahamas and well east of the East Coast of the United States

[JPmia]

Little OT, but related to the consistent troughing over the EC that is recurving all these storms.. Eastern Gulf & Florida could be in for an interesting October.

[clfenwi]

As AdamFirst said, HWRF continues to keep it weak

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FOURTEEN 14L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 7

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -40.90 LAT: 12.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -42.70 LAT: 13.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -44.70 LAT: 13.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -46.60 LAT: 13.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -48.60 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -50.50 LAT: 14.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -52.40 LAT: 14.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -54.00 LAT: 14.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -55.40 LAT: 15.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -56.40 LAT: 16.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -57.60 LAT: 16.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -58.80 LAT: 17.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -59.90 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -60.90 LAT: 20.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -61.80 LAT: 21.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -63.00 LAT: 22.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -63.90 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -64.40 LAT: 25.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -64.90 LAT: 25.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -65.50 LAT: 26.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -65.60 LAT: 26.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -65.70 LAT: 27.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
FORECAST RAN COUPLED TO HOUR: 98.2500 98.2500

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.




[url=[URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/683/090712hwrfmaria.png/][/url]

Loop

[kirium]

That map looks to be pushing Maria a bit north of earlier projection.

[ozonepete]

No matter what else it does, it looks like a close call for the northern islands and Puerto Rico. Let's just hope it stays weak, but the models forecast Irene to be weak there and it wasn't. It's the same old story: the models do so well on track but still have considerable problems with strength. I find it fascinating that the NHC is puzzled and can only speculate as to why the models keep it weak. That's how little we still know how to forecast strength. They also initially had Irene significantly strengthening which she didn't do until days later. I just don't trust it until I see it for myself.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

HWRF is very fishy folks (assuming it does not hit Bermuda but it is a tiny target so chances are it will not) - Flemish cap anybody?

Flemish Cap -- Where the BIG fish go

[clfenwi]

12Z GFDL

HOUR: .0 LONG: -41.39 LAT: 12.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.08
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -42.97 LAT: 12.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.95
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -45.10 LAT: 13.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.48 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.09
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -47.25 LAT: 13.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.52
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -49.58 LAT: 13.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.93 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.32
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -52.03 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.12
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -54.00 LAT: 14.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.89
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -55.64 LAT: 15.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.76
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -57.69 LAT: 16.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.55
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -59.43 LAT: 16.74 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.98
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -61.14 LAT: 17.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.69
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -62.88 LAT: 17.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.45
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -64.34 LAT: 18.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.79
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -65.60 LAT: 19.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.88
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -66.77 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.13 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.24
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -68.18 LAT: 21.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.65
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -69.35 LAT: 21.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.22
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -70.44 LAT: 22.85 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.75
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -71.46 LAT: 23.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.63
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -72.39 LAT: 24.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.64
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -73.17 LAT: 25.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.50
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -73.50 LAT: 26.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.08





Loop

[SeminoleWind]

That is one crazy NNW turn.... lol with ridging to the north. both in the low levels and mid levels.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Yep kinda odd but hey i suppose we will have to wait and see.

[AdamFirst]

12z UKMET 120hr

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Maria forms in the Atlantic

Dr. Rick Knabb, , The Weather Channel

Sep 7, 2011 11:06 am ET

- Tropical Storm Maria could directly affect Leeward Islands starting Friday and could threaten other land areas farther west during the weekend and next week

ATLANTIC BASIN

* Tropical Storm Maria

- Not expected to grow much stronger in the near future

- Could directly affect the Leeward Islands on Friday and Saturday and other parts of the northern Caribbean, from the Virgin Islands to Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, this weekend

- Too soon to determine what other land areas might eventually be affected

[cycloneye]

Aric,there it is.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the convection is displaced northeast by shear. The LLC is running out south of 13N near 43W.
I really wanted to wishcast this to spin up early and respond to the trough, but its not looking good.
Wonder how long before she stacks up so the modeled steering winds provide useful guidance?

[Gustywind]

From accuweater.com
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... rouble.asp

Maria Brings More Girl Trouble in the Atlantic

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Sep 7, 2011; 1:52 PM ET
Tropical Storm Maria is on path that will take it much farther south in the tropical Atlantic compared to Katia and could take a similar path to that of Irene.

All kidding aside, tropical storms and hurricanes with female "and" male names need to be taken seriously.

Maria will cause trouble in the Antilles and needs to be watched for impact in the Bahamas and areas northward through the Atlantic Seaboard as a result.

Maria formed farther south than Katia and is in a steering flow that will take the tropical storm near the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and even Hispaniola this weekend.

According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Coordinator Dan Kottlowski, "The upper-level trough that mitigated the intensity of Katia is still in the region, in front of Maria, causing disruptive wind shear."

However, Kottlowski points out that even with wind shear and some dry air surrounding the system, there is still room for Maria to strengthen to a hurricane any time over the next several days.


"It is not uncommon to have a system, such as Maria, go through multiple strengthening and weakening stages, reacting to other weather systems along the way," Kottlowski said.

At this point, while it appears the main threat to the northern part of the Lesser Antilles is from torrential downpours and flash flooding spreading from west to east this weekend, wind and rough seas would also become problems if Maria strengthens significantly.

Beyond this weekend, odds favor Maria staying on the northern side of the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba) with an eventual northward turn either over the open waters of the western Atlantic or perhaps very close to the Atlantic Seaboard.

How much interaction Maria has with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will play a role in the strength of the system, as will dry air and pockets of wind shear.

[Aric Dunn]

Some very strong ridging to the NNW of it right now... would be surprised to see much north component for the next 24 to 36 hours.

[AdamFirst]

12z EURO 96hr

Poof