ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Ah a little earlier then I was expecting. Recon will probably find a fairly weak system IMO if the current trends keep up.

[Aric Dunn]

Still heading out though

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[KWT]

Yep alot stronger response from the 18z GFS with regards to Maria, probably a hurricane on this run in the end.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep alot stronger response from the 18z GFS with regards to Maria, probably a hurricane on this run in the end.

yep just a little more ridging.. but still very fast!

[HurricaneWarning92]

If you read my post closely, I stated that I did not want a hurricane to threaten anyone anywhere. I don't find natural disasters to be "entertainment." I just find recurves repetitive and therefore boring.

I agreed with this too... but apparently its pathetic? i dont want to see destruction to be entertained. For that, i watch movies where no one gets hurt.

[cycloneye]

.

*Unless a TC develops in the Bay of Campeche first.

Well, if a system develops down in the BOC later this week, it may divert attention away from this thread for a short while. But, 95L, if the models verify a strong ridge building in later this week across the Atlantic, will still have plenty of attention believe me as time progresses.

Check out the Another GOM storm thread for more about the possible development in the BOC late this week.

Here we are with Tropical Storm Nate and combining with not a total favorable enviroment for Maria,even if it goes thru the Northern Leewards, I now changed to under 100.

[KWT]

Hopefully it's nothing more than a wet, breezy day for you guys in the islands

i'd imagine given the conditions aloft don't look to be that great at the moment what you suggest seems more likely, though I'm sure it will be a gusty day one way or the other.

[Blown Away]

Until mother nature plugs that big hole in the atmosphere off the EC, these storms will continue taking the path of least resistance.

[Gustywind]

Hi Gusty,

The yellow alert must be because of the wave in front of Maria.......don't you think so?

A yellow for Maria sounds too soon for me.

Hi my friend, glad to see you

I don't think that the yellow alert is in relation with the twave in front (given the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France). A yellow alert cyclone Maria is at this time,in my opinion.. a good way to say to the citizens: be vigilant a TS could be a possible threat during the next 48H, but at this time we have no special preparations to do, just stay vigilants and already tuned (radio, tv). Let's wait and see what could happens with TS Maria.

[KWT]

Yeah good advice Gustywind, Maria is still a few days away at its current pace and whilst I'd be surprised if any significant strengthening happened, you never quite know!

[KWT]

To be fair the GFS really isn't all that far from Bermuda on its 18z run with Maria, wouldn't take much of a right shift on that track to put it in the path.

[natmicstef]

We are getting quite a bit of heavy rain in SXM right now from the system in front of Maria.

[ouragans]

Yuck, unfortunately my plane from San Juan is supposed to land in Antigua at 9:00pm....

I wonder if they'll close the airport for a tropical storm?

You may have to call your carrier to see what will be the status of your flight.

If you're on American Eagle, they won't fly if winds are over 35 kts

[KWT]

Just had a look at the forecast package, 45kts the whole way through?!

Hmm I think the system may well strengthen more then they are expecting once north of the islands, but till then I wouldn't be shocked to see a little weakening myself...

[SootyTern]

If you read my post closely, I stated that I did not want a hurricane to threaten anyone anywhere. I don't find natural disasters to be "entertainment." I just find recurves repetitive and therefore boring.

I agreed with this too... but apparently its pathetic? i dont want to see destruction to be entertained. For that, i watch movies where no one gets hurt.

Well, if a storm doesn't recurve at sea, it will by default hit land somewhere. That said, these tracks this year are very repetitive. I find that tracking hurricanes not heading towards my house is a lot more exciting when the synoptics are complicated and the outcome is not so obvious. This might be closer to what people mean when they are complaining about being 'bored' by the 2011 hurricane season. Even the guys at the NHC are feeling it! What they wrote at 5PM:

THE AVERAGE MOTION HAS BEEN TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20
KNOTS. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT FORECASTING MARIA TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
RAPID PACE. THEREAFTER...IT IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS BEEN THE
SCENARIO OBSERVED DURING THE TWO OR THREE PREVIOUS RECURVING
CYCLONES THIS SEASON. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFS
AND HWRF TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND UK PROLONGING THE EVENTUAL NORTHWARD TURN A LITTLE LONGER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS...AS USUAL...A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE.

[ouragans]

Hi Gusty,

The yellow alert must be because of the wave in front of Maria.......don't you think so?

A yellow for Maria sounds too soon for me.

Hi my friend, glad to see you

I don't think that the yellow alert is in relation with the twave in front (given the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France). A yellow alert cyclone Maria is at this time,in my opinion.. a good way to say to the citizens: be vigilant a TS could be a possible threat during the next 48H, but at this time we have no special preparations to do, just stay vigilants and already tuned (radio, tv). Let's wait and see what could happens with TS Maria.

I can confirm for the FWI, the yellow alert is for Maria, it has been confirmed by Meteo France at 6PM. It's a Yellow Cyclone effective at 5PM

[KWT]

Yeah the pattern has been very stubborn recently, probably going to need to shift to a warm neutraol/weak El nino and also have a strongly +ve winter to really kick things into a different gear when it comes to that.

[kirium]

Yuck, unfortunately my plane from San Juan is supposed to land in Antigua at 9:00pm....

I wonder if they'll close the airport for a tropical storm?

You may have to call your carrier to see what will be the status of your flight.

If you're on American Eagle, they won't fly if winds are over 35 kts

Yes, just checked. It's American Eagle. Oh joy.

[Gustywind]

Yeah good advice Gustywind, Maria is still a few days away at its current pace and whilst I'd be surprised if any significant strengthening happened, you never quite know!

Absolutely KWT thanks for post, good reasoning. Should i focus on the fact that on small island we must keep in mind this sentence: NEVER SAY NEVER! For example: we saw last week how indirects impacts could be vicious.... remembering the effects of the swells saturday due to Katia! During this episode of dangerous seas, we reported two deads (while we were in Yellow code for dangerous seas!). We must not underestimated Mother Nature especially in our islands. My advice is let's prepare... "for nothing" . So let's be vigilant even if nothings occurs with Maria.

For info since HUGO in 1989, we have reported in Guadeloupe the most important deathtoll : 7 people died this year with the natural disasters! 5 due to the rains (January 2011 5 people died during nasty floodings at les Abymes Guadeloupe) and 2 due to the dangerous sea (2 died last saturday Katia moving north of the Leewards).

Curiously and the more sad is that these features were not related to direct threats related of hurricanes. And when Adam First mentionned : "Hopefully it's nothing more than a wet, breezy day for you guys in the islands " seems to me a bit unappropriate to the situation in Guadeloupe and most the islands this year. I wonder what Cycloneye think about that... with all the water falled this year and a cat 1 cane on PR. One word: be your on guard islanders...

[Gustywind]

Hi Gusty,

The yellow alert must be because of the wave in front of Maria.......don't you think so?

A yellow for Maria sounds too soon for me.

Hi my friend, glad to see you

I don't think that the yellow alert is in relation with the twave in front (given the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France). A yellow alert cyclone Maria is at this time,in my opinion.. a good way to say to the citizens: be vigilant a TS could be a possible threat during the next 48H, but at this time we have no special preparations to do, just stay vigilants and already tuned (radio, tv). Let's wait and see what could happens with TS Maria.

I can confirm for the FWI, the yellow alert is for Maria, it has been confirmed by Meteo France at 6PM. It's a Yellow Cyclone effective at 5PM

Thanks my friend glad to see you! I get these informations on the weather of Meteo-France thanks to for confirmation, you put some clearance . Looks like Maria could pose a possible threat for the Leewards, let's wait and see. Stressfull nights ahead if Maria continues to race westward...