ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[tobol.7uno]

Waiting to see model runs that initiated at 5pm. First model runs to have an accurate starting position and intensity. I am going to tend to disagree with NHC's official track right now, but that may change upon seeing these model runs.

[South Texas Storms]

I think all of the 0z runs will have the NHC position and recon data...am I right?

[tobol.7uno]

I think all of the 0z runs will have the NHC position and recon data...am I right?

They should that is why I am assuming that they would be more accurate than previous runs where nothing is certain.

[clfenwi]

Waiting to see model runs that initiated at 5pm. First model runs to have an accurate starting position and intensity. I am going to tend to disagree with NHC's official track right now, but that may change upon seeing these model runs.

18Z HWRF actually initialized pretty darn close...in both position and intensity.


HWRF Initialization: HOUR: .0 LONG: -92.31 LAT: 20.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.20

NHC Initalization: AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.5W

[ozonepete]

Aric picked the center again! Go back and look at this thread during the afternoon. Unless I missed something, he was the only one who picked the right one. I saw your logic but I didn't catch it before you did. Way to go, Aric. That's what makes this site so valuable.

[Air Force Met]

I see no circulation at all with this storm at the moment... just some scattered convection...

Uh...

191700 1936N 09257W 9875 00162 //// +215 //// 269051 053 045 001 05

213530 2101N 09224W 9874 00146 //// +257 //// 094028 028 026 002 01

If you can't see a circulation with 50 knots of west winds...and 30 knots of east winds...

Then I can't help ya

[ozonepete]

Really. Just go look at the RGB satellite loop. If you can't see it on there, I can't help either.

[Air Force Met]

:uarrow: Really. Just go look at the RGB satellite loop. If you can't see it on there, I can't help either.

Yep...shows up nice there as well.

[Frank P]

well its pretty crappy looking on IR tonight... two areas of deep convection.. one in BOC and the other off the n coast of the Yuc.. maybe the GFS is onto something..

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS Ensembles look good for Texas
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... nvest2.gif

[tobol.7uno]

GFS ensemble shifts to the NE Gulf coast as well as the AMEN. Other models have not updated yet. 1800Z are the ones updated.

[ozonepete]

well its pretty crappy looking on IR tonight... two areas of deep convection.. one in BOC and the other off the n coast of the Yuc.. maybe the GFS is onto something..

A lot of nascent tropical cyclones look pretty bad like this at the beginning. When they first kick up, it's the consensus of model forecasts that usually gets it right as to whether they develop or not, not one model.

[clfenwi]

Microwave image from ~40 minutes ago

[100feettstormsurge]

I hope Nate isn't retired after this year. I like to see what Nate's fate is every time it's named.

[BigA]

Interesting shift back east in the GFS ensembles and the AEMN, though the lion's share of the models are still to the west.

I still don't get how the GFS ensembles can vary so much from the operational run and all in one direction. Aren't they supposed to be the same run with small variations in initial condition?

Maybe they will teach me this soon.

Also, 18Z Fox WRF has Nate fairly far north in 72 hours: at about 24.5N, 92W.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Flyinman]

If this goes into Northern Mexico, will it just traverse Mexico or is there a chance of movement to the NE as Lee?

[wxman57]

If this goes into Northern Mexico, will it just traverse Mexico or is there a chance of movement to the NE as Lee?

It would die a quick death over the mountains of Mexico.

[rockyman]

Current Fox WRF (last frame)--moving north or north-northwest:

[rockyman]

12z vs 18z GFS Ensembles:

[tobol.7uno]

Another interesting look at the models. Note very little turn to the west.