ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Rockin4NOLA]

Somone correct me if I am wrong but on that image do I see two small..for lack of better wording..."areas of circulation" behind TS Maria coming off of Africa? Or is that just normal sea/tidal movement? Sorry I'm not great shakes at photoshop so I can't really point to where I'm looking but maybe someone knows what I mean...

[Ixolib]

Just curious - what areas are considered NE GOM, Central (North) GOM, and NW GOM? Is there a particular dividing line that most people use on here? I was just wondering - thanks in advance.

I'd like to know too. I posed the same question during the Irene thread, but never noticed a response.

My opinion would be:
NE GOM = Pensacola to Big Bend
EASTERN GOM = Big Bend southward to Key West
CENTRAL GOM = Mississippi and Louisiana
NW GOM = Sabine Pass to Matagorda Bay (maybe Corpus???)
WESTERN GOM = Matagorda Bay southward to Brownsville
SW GOM = Brownsville southward to Veracruz

I suppose one could also use the NHC breakpoints as a point of reference...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints/images/bp_gulf_11.jpg

Of course, we all know what they say about opinions...

[clfenwi]

00Z GFS 72h

[South Texas Storms]

Just curious - what areas are considered NE GOM, Central (North) GOM, and NW GOM? Is there a particular dividing line that most people use on here? I was just wondering - thanks in advance.

I'd like to know too. I posed the same question during the Irene thread, but never noticed a response.

My opinion would be:
NE GOM = Pensacola to Big Bend
EASTERN GOM = Big Bend southward to Key West
CENTRAL GOM = Mississippi and Louisiana
NW GOM = Sabine Pass to Matagorda Bay (maybe Corpus???)
WESTERN GOM = Matagorda Bay southward to Brownsville
SW GOM = Brownsville southward to Veracruz

I suppose one could also use the NHC breakpoints as a point of reference...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints/images/bp_gulf_11.jpg

Of course, we all know what they say about opinions...

That sounds about right.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS is more north than 18z through 75 hours so far. Maybe the Euro and GFS will come together and meet in northern MX on tonight's 0z runs...

[clfenwi]

00Z GFS 96h

[clfenwi]

120h

[Wx_Warrior]

123H



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[SunnyThoughts]

96 hours and still sitting there spinning and strengthening it looks like.

[South Texas Storms]

Big shift north tonight on the 0z GFS. Moved about 100 miles further north than the past few runs.
At 132 hours, looks like it stalled just offshore, near Tampico, MX... TX ridge please break down soon so our good friend Nate can pay us a visit.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not enough to get me excited.

132H



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[Rgv20]

Looking at the 500mb Pattern it looks like the ECMWF and GFS have been rather consisting on strengthening the Texas Ridge starting around Sunday evening and that should cause Nate to make a left turn..

[clfenwi]

144h and still not inland

[Wx_Warrior]

144H



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[South Texas Storms]

If Nate sits out there long enough, is there any signs of the TX ridge weakening in about 7 days?

[Wx_Warrior]

Ridge holding strong. -removed- should cease.

150H. inland



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[South Texas Storms]

Warrior, I'm so freakin desperate for some hope. Please give me some.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z NAM is more helpful for you than 0z GFS

[South Texas Storms]

Yep I saw that. 0z Euro better not make my day start awful when I wake up tomorrow morning and look at it...

[psyclone]

it's not at all uncommon for storms approaching this part of the coast to actually lose latitude upon final approach. i wouldn't be surprised if that happened in this case. it is quite rare for systems in this region to make much headway north. the models seem to generally agree that this system will likely maintain that historical precedent. this gfs run seems most reasonable to me as does the official nhc track.