ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[clfenwi]

Looks like the CMC has only slightly shifted its outlier solution. Just off the Louisiana/Mississippi coast at 96h.

[ROCK]

need to see the CMC tonight and see if that flips as well....all the globals showing the same thing would pretty much put the last nail in the coffin...damn Nate...what kind of name is that anyway....

[Rgv20]

Looks like the CMC has only slightly shifted its outlier solution. Just off the Louisiana/Mississippi coast at 96h.

Just looked at it, but IMO its way way to fast with regards to Nate's track.

[Wx_Warrior]

CMC back to it's old self. NICE.

[ROCK]

Looks like the CMC has only slightly shifted its outlier solution. Just off the Louisiana/Mississippi coast at 96h.

lost me link to the CMC...anyone care to share?

[ROCK]

CMC back to it's old self. NICE.

now if the EURO shifts you will be singing a different tune....

[Rgv20]

Looks like the CMC has only slightly shifted its outlier solution. Just off the Louisiana/Mississippi coast at 96h.

lost me link to the CMC...anyone care to share?

Here you go Rock....http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

Just a tip the Black and White Charts update faster than the Color ones..

[Wx_Warrior]

CMC puts the pedal to the metal with Nate

http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

[clfenwi]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html for the source.

Loop will be on http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ shortly.

And I'll revise my statement. Not any shift in landfall position... just ~12 hr slower in timing compared to the 12Z run... if I didn't know better, I would think I was looking at an interpolated run.

[Wx_Warrior]

Need 2-3 consecutive runs for me to jump.

[Huckster]

Just curious - what areas are considered NE GOM, Central (North) GOM, and NW GOM? Is there a particular dividing line that most people use on here? I was just wondering - thanks in advance.

I'd like to know too. I posed the same question during the Irene thread, but never noticed a response.

My opinion would be:
NE GOM = Pensacola to Big Bend
EASTERN GOM = Big Bend southward to Key West
CENTRAL GOM = Mississippi and Louisiana
NW GOM = Sabine Pass to Matagorda Bay (maybe Corpus???)
WESTERN GOM = Matagorda Bay southward to Brownsville
SW GOM = Brownsville southward to Veracruz

I suppose one could also use the NHC breakpoints as a point of reference...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints/images/bp_gulf_11.jpg

Of course, we all know what they say about opinions...

I've been wondering and confused about what part of the Gulf is what. I've confused myself; do I live on the North Gulf Coast? or West? or Central? or North-central? Does the Gulf even exist So, I took a map, and made some boxes, lines, and a circle. Please feel free to give constructive criticism. Every day we live, we learn something new. The only way to get an answer is to ask a question.

[ROCK]

I dont think it is intialized right from the get go....has it farther up the Yuc....interesting...

[Rgv20]

Need 2-3 consecutive runs for me to jump.

I'm still not sold on Nate being a threat to the Northern Gulf but I still need one more run of the ECMWF to be sure..

Oh and the NHC agrees with me so Im pretty confident......or do I agree with the NHC?

[bayoubebe]

What about the cooler temps(with the dryer air) we have been experiencing here in SE LA? Would that tend to lessen development or direction into the gulf states?

edit: I see a comment I missed about the dry air above(Macrocane). Same thing for cooler temp?

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If shear is going to weaken and remain low then the dry air won't be a big problem for Nate, it may slow strengthening a little but not weaken the cyclone, I believe it will make it to hurricane status as it will have enough time to strengthen once the baroclinic processes in the area end. D-max should help Nate in its organization process tonight.

[Macrocane]

What about the cooler temps(with the dryer air) we have been experiencing here in SE LA? Would that tend to lessen development or direction into the gulf states?

edit: I see a comment I missed about the dry air above(Macrocane). Same thing for cooler temp?

I don't think the cooler temps will have any effect on Nate because this is just the first cool shot in a looong time and sea cools slower than land so the SST will stay the same, anyway it is expected to stay south enough from most of the Gulf states.

[TwisterFanatic]

EURO has a monster high push it SW from 96-120 HRS. It was headed towards the South Texas coast and BAM!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[ronjon]

Big Time changes with 06z GFS - tropical cyclone into Gulfport Miss then sliding east along coast to P'Cola.

06z GFS

[N2FSU]

WOW! Looks like the operational is now coming more in line with the ensembles. Interesting days ahead.

[N2FSU]

Check out the 6Z GFS on the models forum...HUGE shift! Now has landfall around Mississippi on Tuesday as a strong looking cyclone, then moving east towards Florida Panhandle.

[Sabanic]

Big Time changes with 06z GFS - tropical cyclone into Gulfport Miss then sliding east along coast to P'Cola.

06z GFS

Now that would be nasty!!