ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

08/0615 UTC 13.4N 47.9W T2.5/2.5 MARIA
07/2345 UTC 13.2N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 MARIA

[meriland23]

euro
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 47.2W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MON-WED...ECM MODEL HAS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE GFS COMPARED TO
H24 AGO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER. THE BROAD POS TILT CTRL-ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ESE AS IT WEAKENS FURTHER...BUT WILL BE
PLENTY STRONG TO ERODE THE WRN PORTION OF BERMUDA RIDGE THAT WILL
HAVE BRIEFLY REBUILT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CATCH T.C. "MARIA" AND
TURN HER NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST...WELL EAST OF FL...BY NEXT WED.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLLAPSE OF THE WRN ATLC RIDGE...GRADIENT FLOW
WILL EITHER BECOME QUITE LIGHT OR BACK TO NE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
WEST MARIA GETS. ATTM FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD GFS SOLN...
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS. POPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO...NEAR
40 PCT EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AS WELL.

GFS is king this year!

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA CONTINUES TO SPEED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 48.2W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[Gustywind]

From SSD...

08/0615 UTC 13.4N 47.9W T2.5/2.5 MARIA
07/2345 UTC 13.2N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 MARIA

[Gustywind]

TS Maria racing westard...

[Gustywind]

From our daily newspaper FranceAntilles...

METEO. Guadeloupe placed in yellow in the meantime Maria
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 137700.php
franceantilles.fr08.09.2011

If Tropical Storm Maria is still very far from our archipelago - it stood at 17 hours approximately 1900 km in the East South-East of la Desirade - weather France placed, this evening, the Guadeloupe in yellow vigilance. Maria moves to the West, at a speed of 35 km/h and should concern us in the night of Friday to Saturday.
The early effects on our archipelago should appear in the afternoon of Friday and quickly intensify. In the night, sustained storm rains are expected and may give rise to important foreign rollups generate floods. The wind should be strengthened with violent gusts. The sea should grow with 3 m 50 waves in a long énegétique of sector east northeast swells.

[wxman57]

Maria looks like a tropical wave.

[rainstorm]

appears euro goes way east.

[rainstorm]

i agree. its moving way way too fast. i doubt it should be classified. it ran right into katia's trough.

[rainstorm]

meanwhile, 06gfs comes way west. if maria opens into a wave it most likely will shoot straight west.

[BigA]

That is a huge shift west on the 06 GFS (not to mention the shift for Nate). We'll have to see if it's a rogue run or if the 12Z shows something similar.

Right now 06 NOGAPS and 06 GFS solutions are quite similar, with NOGAPS showing a less sharp recurve.

[StormTracker]

Interesting that the NWS in Miami keeps mentioning Maria in their discussions.
If it is supposed to be so apparent that she is going to recurve, then why keep talking about?
Especially for us to keep updated during the weekend????

Here is a snippet from their latest discussion (actually from 2:37 PM but still in the discussion)
South Florida needs to monitor Tropical Storm Maria through the weekend...

Tropical Storm Maria is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to move to the west northwest late this week and be near the
southern Bahama Islands by Monday morning. The long range models
are also showing Maria to move northwest near the Bahama Islands
early to middle of next week. However...the error on the position
of tropical systems this far out is more than 300 miles. Florida
residents and visitors need to continue to monitor the latest
forecast from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm
Maria through the weekend and into early next week.

Maria looks like a tropical wave.

Maybe the NWS is thinking Maria is going to get a lot further west than modeled to be! How is the upper air environment looking for the area Maria is entering right now? She may stay ragged for the next 24hrs or so! I do seem to recall some of the previous model runs losing the storm almost, looking like a tropical wave!

[xironman]

Wild run, almost a fujiwhara around FL.

[meriland23]

this is really close, gfs obviously sees something that was not there before

z00 for 9/14/11 15z


z06 for 9/14/11 15z

[Blown Away]

Wow, that 06Z GFS is crazy, yeah Nate would have to be moving in a general NE direction and Maria in a NW or NNW, so you would think Nate would be on top of Maria and push her W.

[meriland23]

:uarrow: Wow, that 06Z GFS is crazy, yeah Nate would have to be moving in a general NE direction and Maria in a NW or NNW, so you would think Nate would be on top of Maria and push her W.

I told ya'll before, I know a bastard when I see one, and Nate, for me, was quite the bastard.

[meriland23]

that is almost 10 degrees west and 5 degrees south of what it was supposed to be six hours ago ..

[xironman]

:uarrow: Wow, that 06Z GFS is crazy, yeah Nate would have to be moving in a general NE direction and Maria in a NW or NNW, so you would think Nate would be on top of Maria and push her W.

Actually at 174 Nate heads a bit south, classic cyclonic orbit, they seem about the same size