ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

ridge looks really healthy on the GFDL run I must say, 66 hours. No way it can recurve into a ridge that strong

[craptacular]

Apparently the Hurricane Hunters are using a Harrier for this mission. Hopefully they're not having major equipment problems.

[cycloneye]

It will be interesting to see if they mention the GFDL west shift at 5 PM discussion.

[Aric Dunn]

ridge looks really healthy on the GFDL run I must say

as does the 12z EUro right now.. fills in right behind katia and this run maria is farther south at 48 hours with plenty of ridging. heading south of PR or over it ...... possible this run

[Extratropical94]

Observation 05 - Thanks tobol.7uno and Dave for the images.

URNT15 KNHC 081801
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 05 20110908
174630 1724N 06358W 3615 05147 //// -215 //// ////// /// 016 001 39
174700 1724N 06358W 3615 05147 //// -217 //// ////// /// 023 000 34
174730 1724N 06358W 3610 05147 //// -219 //// ////// /// 023 000 34
174800 1724N 06358W 3599 05147 //// -220 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
174830 1724N 06358W 3591 05147 //// -220 //// ////// /// 007 001 39
174900 1724N 06358W 3563 05147 //// -223 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
174930 1724N 06358W 3479 05146 //// -234 //// ////// /// 021 000 34
175000 1724N 06358W 3424 05146 //// -241 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
175030 1724N 06358W 3374 05146 //// -248 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
175100 1724N 06358W 3339 05146 //// -255 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
175130 1724N 06358W 3309 05146 //// -261 //// ////// /// 023 000 34
175200 1724N 06358W 3273 05146 //// -267 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
175230 1724N 06358W 3273 05146 //// -269 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
175300 1724N 06358W 3273 05146 //// -269 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
175330 1724N 06358W 3273 05146 //// -269 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
175400 1724N 06358W 3273 05146 //// -269 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
175430 1724N 06358W 3273 05146 0493 -278 //// 111003 003 022 000 39
175500 1642N 06218W 3151 09327 0493 -289 //// 113003 003 /// /// 05
175530 1641N 06216W 3153 09313 0489 -290 //// 101003 004 /// /// 05
175600 1640N 06214W 3147 09333 0491 -290 //// 089004 004 /// /// 05
$$

[Shuriken]

There's something that makes me think the intensity forecast is low for that area at this time of year.

They're splitting the difference: a tropical system in that area this time of year is either rapidly winding up to hurricane, or a sheared & exposed LLC (which may start rapidly winding up the next day, or croak because it tracked way south and crashed into Haiti). So, when you're plotting a disorganized TS, the Day5 could in reality be anywhere from 140kts to [dissipated].

[Nimbus]

So now we have a serious dynamic model forecasting the possibility of a Florida landfall.

The stronger ridging trend is interesting but being 5 days off anything could happen, I'm almost half wondering if the models will continue tracking further west towards the central gulf coast?

Marias convection is starting to wax again so I don't think we can just write her off obviously...

[gatorcane]

So the longer this takes to organize, the more west it is going to go. Looks like it is in no hurry, so things may be getting interesting for the CONUS if it continues to not organize the next couple of days.

It's these very disorganized systems that wait to bomb out closer to the CONUS (say in the Bahamas or Western Caribbean) that are the lethal ones in my opinion, had this deepened sooner, it would have been a gonner and maybe even had missed the islands.

[jlauderdal]

huge shift west for the GFDL

watch out Florida...

that's an undesirable track for south florida due to the open water but you know the drill on model runs this far out and error, some people will go oh no we are in trouble and others will say good place to be this far out, im in the second camp until we get whacked by a system and a 5 day verifies with us in the bullseye

[Weatherboy1]

I'm skeptical Maria can even hold together here, though if she does, clearly the modelling is shifting closer to FL. Or she could always fly apart, then regenerate and follow a more westerly path as weaker storms tend to do. Interesting developments in the modelling today to say the least.

[painkillerr]

[quote="cycloneye"]...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

Ironically Luis, this is not good news. Folks are already writting Maria off with this advisory and they may be making a huge mistake. If Maria regains strenght of the likes of Irene, we will have another chaotic weekend.

[Gustywind]

Maria has begun to slow down since 11 AM going from 37 km/h to 35km/h...

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET... final point is just west of Abaco Island, Bahamas.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 50.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142011
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.09.2011 13.5N 50.1W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2011 12.9N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2011 13.0N 57.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2011 14.6N 60.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2011 15.5N 63.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2011 17.0N 65.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2011 18.2N 67.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2011 19.6N 69.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2011 20.7N 72.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2011 21.7N 74.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2011 22.6N 75.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2011 24.0N 76.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2011 25.9N 77.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro showing more ridging... 72 hrs on top of PR.. barely there though.

[cycloneye]

...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

Ironically Luis, this is not good news. Folks are already writting Maria off with this advisory and they may be making a huge mistake. If Maria regains strenght of the likes of Irene, we will have another chaotic weekend.

That is right, Many will go to the beaches,to music festivals and more activities this weekend. That is why I would like to have a TS warning for PR to see if by having that ,the people see the reallity about what may transpire.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z UKMET... final point is just west of Abaco Island, Bahamas.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 50.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142011
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.09.2011 13.5N 50.1W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2011 12.9N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2011 13.0N 57.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2011 14.6N 60.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2011 15.5N 63.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2011 17.0N 65.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2011 18.2N 67.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2011 19.6N 69.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2011 20.7N 72.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2011 21.7N 74.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2011 22.6N 75.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2011 24.0N 76.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
[b]12UTC 14.09.2011 25.9N 77.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY[/b]

well that another model with more ridging and shifted west a little more.

[gatorcane]

12z euro showing more ridging... 72 hrs on top of PR.. barely there though.

Yeah but it may be getting ready to bomb out once it moves away from the islands....we'll see.

[jlauderdal]

12Z UKMET... final point is just west of Abaco Island, Bahamas.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 50.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142011
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.09.2011 13.5N 50.1W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2011 12.9N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2011 13.0N 57.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2011 14.6N 60.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2011 15.5N 63.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2011 17.0N 65.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2011 18.2N 67.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2011 19.6N 69.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2011 20.7N 72.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2011 21.7N 74.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2011 22.6N 75.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2011 24.0N 76.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
[b]12UTC 14.09.2011 25.9N 77.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY[/b]

well that another model with more ridging and shifted west a little more.

i see this kind of stuff INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY and thats why a track like gfdl is nasty due to nothing to slow it down..irene at one point had this type of track

[Aric Dunn]

check out the ridging build over the western atlantic at 72 hours.. as the trough/ cut off low lifts out.. and to 96 hours.. cant recurve through that..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 96 hours moves it over Hispaniola, de ja vu all over again as it called for something similar with Emily and Irene....let's see what happens when it moves away from Hispaniola.

Euro pushes NATE into Mexico so the battle between GFS and Euro continues on NATE's future track.