ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ouragans]

Gusty, ouragans, Luis, Barb, MJ and all of my S2K friends in the Caribbean,

Best of luck to all of you. Be safe, stay dry and don't take any unnecessary chances. Hopefully this won't be much more than a summer afternoon storm.

Thinking about all of you.

Lynn

Thanks Lynn, really appreciate. I'll keep awake until the first effects are felt where I leave in Guadeloupe.

[tobol.7uno]

Looks like this recon mission is over. I am not sure when the next one is because I do not know where you find that data, so if someone could post that it would be nice.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Next mission:

A. 10/12Z,18Z (Center passes at approximately 8AM and 2PM EDT)
B. AFXXX 0414A MARIA
C. 10/1015Z (Takeoff at 6:15AM EDT)
D. 16.5N 62.4W
E. 10/1130Z TO 10/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Plan of the Day...

Today
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

Tomorrow
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

How to Read
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutreconpod.shtml

From "Plan of the Day" on this page:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

[kirium]

well, left Dallas at 12:50pm, arrived in San Juan at around 6pm to find out our flight to Antigua wascancelled. ends up we could take a flight to St. Kitts so here we are at the Marriott hoping we can fly to antigua tomorrow. right now at 1:20am local, just heavy rain and winds around 25mph I'd guess. Just a small storm in Texas

[tobol.7uno]

Thanks! Glad to gave those links!

[Shuriken]

Looks like just a wave now.

[wxman57]

It was a wave yesterday.

[chrisjslucia]

Maria is a ....tease! Woke up at 3 am to check what was happening - about an hour after its predicted nearest point to St Lucia - and nothing. Nothing all night, bright start to today but stuck out to our East is a long system stretching along the Windwards and Leewards. Looking at the radar image, it seems to be curving in some long north to north west arc. Is she going to survive at all?

[cycloneye]

Radar of Martinique animation of the mess. They should downgrade.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[cycloneye]

It was a wave yesterday.

And a wave today. Is telling that recon is not flying this morning as planned. Maybe a downgrade at 8 AM?

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends . The night was absolutely calm and that's the good news. Maria is maybe playfull. Looks like Maria is blocked just before the islands and has not virtually changed since yesterday afternoon.... and that's not good at all! Curiously, she has not crosses the arc and now consists of two impressive convective areas. I wonder how to find a defined center?
In any case it is perhaps not finished, looks like the the southern cell is rebursting nicely.

[OURAGAN]

I agree.

[Gustywind]

Glad to to hear you this morning OURAGAN .

[Gustywind]

METEO. Maria savings Guadeloupe, back in yellow vigilance

franceantilles.fr10.09.2011
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 137700.php


The storm tropical Maria finally spared Guadeloupe. At night, it changed its trajectory and is was disorganized at the approach of the Antillean arc. Nevertheless, if we are spared this morning by heavy precipitation and strong winds, we will be affected starting in the late afternoon, the next night and Sunday. The sea will remain strong but to depreciate gradually. The islands of the North remain in orange vigilance.
The storm tropical Maria moved slightly more North than expected, leaving us in the margin of the most active part. She showed strong signs of disruption to the approach of the Antillean arc. 6 Hours, its center was located about 110 km east of Guadeloupe and heading towards Antigua.
It remains that if we are spared this morning by heavy precipitation and strong winds, we'll be affected starting in the late afternoon, the next night and Sunday, from which a return to yellow vigilance for heavy rain and dangerous sea.
The wind is weak and variable this morning. It is moving south then Southeast this afternoon in reinforcing but should not exceed 40 to 50 km/h with gusts under stormy showers.
The sea will remain strong but to depreciate gradually. Average low in the order of 3 m 50 this morning will reach 2 m 80 later in the day in a cross is swell in a sea of the South wind, creating an unusual restlessness on the Caribbean side.
The time will be variable this morning with traffic of showers usually of short duration. These showers will become more frequent over the afternoon and will intensify in evening and next night.

[chrisjslucia]

Hi my friends . The night was absolutely calm and that's the good news. Maria is maybe playfull. Looks like Maria is blocked just before the islands and has not virtually changed since yesterday afternoon.... and that's not good at all! Curiously, she has not crosses the arc and now consists of two impressive convective areas. I wonder how to find a defined center?
In any case it is perhaps not finished, looks like the the southern cell is rebursting nicely.

Not sure how we can plan what is happening here - as you say Gusty, how to find a defined centre? From the radar it looks as if the whole system is being dragged NNW. I think it is possible we could watch it pass by us, certainly in the Windwards and Martinique. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the NHC advise at 8 am.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...MARIA LOSING ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. BARTHELEMY AND ST. MARTEEN
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA
CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MARIA
COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM MARIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS MARIA MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...MARIA COULD DEGENERATE TO
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND THEN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO BY THE END OF THE DAY.

RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

...MARIA LOSING ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Jimsot]

...MARIA LOSING ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

A beautiful morning here in Anguilla. What a mess to our East. A wall of convection all the way up and down the islands. So the patio is cleared and two thirds of the storm shutters are up. We can close up in 20 minutes if we have too. Maybe Maria will just disappear.

[Gustywind]

Given my untrained eyes, seems that the northern part of Maria is racing to the north and falling apart while the southern part is maybe begin to strength and moving gently to the west. Let's wait and see what could happen wit Maria during the next couple of hours.

[hipshot]

Given my untrained eyes, seems that the northern part of Maria is racing to the north and falling apart while the southern part is maybe begin to strength and moving gently to the west. Let's wait and see what could happen wit Maria during the next couple of hours.

That's what it looks like to me as well but my eyes aren't any more trained than yours. BTW, a little
OT. I was checking to see which islands were the windward and leeward islands and noticed that
Dominica gets listed in either one, depending on the site. Can you help me out with this since you are
a local of sorts?