Global model runs discussion

[bigdan35]

It looks like its weak and goes through the channel



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[gatorcane]

Looks like nothing really going on the next couple of weeks based on the globals. Looks like something sporadic developing here and there, but then the next run loses it.

Wake me up when it gets interesting again

[BigA]

18Z GFS back on board SW Caribbean development, as is 18Z NOGAPS.

This particular GFS run takes the storm NW across the Yucatan and into the Western GOM in the long range, while the NOGAPS takes the storm more northward.

I would say all the globals now have lowering pressure in the western Caribbean in about a week, which favors development. Beyond that, it is still too far out to say.

[ROCK]

18Z GFS back on board SW Caribbean development, as is 18Z NOGAPS.

This particular GFS run takes the storm NW across the Yucatan and into the Western GOM in the long range, while the NOGAPS takes the storm more northward.

I would say all the globals now have lowering pressure in the western Caribbean in about a week, which favors development. Beyond that, it is still too far out to say.

the 18z GFS sees it at 180hr and festers it some before pulling up and into the WGOM....whereas the 180hr NOGAPS brings it north right from the get go and is faster...

[cycloneye]

The 12z Euro ensembles are a little more bullish for the Western Caribbean area.



Saved image.

[ROCK]

one of these models are going to hit developement but hard to say which one......0Z GF still pushing it back a few more days....CMC doesnt show much except the EC weak system at 144hr....NOGAPS which spins up every vortex in the Carib still has moving north at 180hr just south of Cuba....

[hurricanetrack]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/gfs.gif

I am going to go with NO development of any significance until THAT changes to green across the Atlantic Basin. Perhaps if a favorable MJO sets up in October, we could see one or two more hurricanes. We could actually end up with only 4 hurricanes this year. Still time for one to make a huge impact, but time is running out a little faster each day.

[dwsqos2]

If it makes you feel better, the gfs isn't that great with MJO forecasts. Usually, it's too aggressive (Compare progged evolution of enhanced convection near the time of the genesis of Irene with what actually verified.)

But yeah, convection stuck in the Indian Ocean isn't helping things in any basin.

[ronjon]

06z GFS has a western caribbean system move NW to the northern coast of the Yucatan and then curve NE across central FL as a tropical cyclone. Still way out there but showing some consistency in developing a system there. Long range models are also showing a deep long wave trough developing over the central US in the 10 day time frame which is a big change in the upper air pattern that may finally rid Tx of the death ridge. In fact, GFS is showing numerous TS and rain over most of Tx in the long range.

06z GFS loop

[rainstorm]

looks like wintertime at the end of the run.

[cycloneye]

Discussion by Rob of Crown Weather:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


As for the Caribbean: The western Caribbean will be an area to really watch over the next 10 to 14 days. The entire pattern that will be setting up which consists of a large high pressure system over New England are notorious for leading to falling barometric pressures over the western Caribbean and thus leading to tropical cyclone genesis. The GFS and European model guidance continue to forecast that tropical cyclone development will occur in the western Caribbean next week. The GFS model is forecasting lowering barometric pressures in the western Caribbean by this weekend which leads to tropical development there sometime next week. The European model forecasts the same type of scenario with a tropical cyclone developing in the far northwest Caribbean in 10 days from now or right around September 21 or 22.

This will be something to really keep a close eye on as we get into this coming weekend and especially next week.

[CourierPR]

Looks like nothing really going on the next couple of weeks based on the globals. Looks like something sporadic developing here and there, but then the next run loses it.

Wake me up when it gets interesting again

Well you might want to put on a pot of coffee come this weekend.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not holding my breath on anything.

From JB this morning:

African wave train shutting down for a while much like 08, but 8-10 day model means open US.

[bigdan35]

6z was just about like the 12z



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[LarryWx]

Folks,
The 12Z Tue CMC dropped the little east coast (sub)tropical low that it had yesterday for next week.

However, the 12Z Tue GFS now actually does have a weak sfc low go up the east coast. Could be a fun little area to watch next week prior to the potential W. Caribbean fun, especially for NC to the NE. Possible analog Henri of 1985:

http://weather.unisy...HENRI/track.gif

[Blown Away]

72 Hour TAFB showing a low over the Central Atlantic.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[Stormcenter]

Winter will arrive a lot sooner then normal for the deep south. IMO

[Turtle]

Winter will arrive a lot sooner then normal for the deep south. IMO

What models are you looking at? I looked at the 12z GFS but it showed similar temps (upper 40s/50s) that were here a week ago. Certainly cold but seems kinda fall-ish.

[gatorcane]

We go from alot of activity to basically nothing and nothing of substance on the horizon from the Globals.......

African wave train has come to a halt and there is a huge fall-like trough sweeping through the southeastern CONUS...winter is right around the corner it seems

this trough is unbelievable for this time of year, its pushing into the NW Caribbean!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Also looking at this loop, the westerlies seems to be pushing further south in lattitude the past week or so as we move into FALL....===more shear closer to the United States:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS offers several development possibbilities in different areas of the Atlantic Basin on the medium and long range or Lala-Land ,but the question is if all of them will come to fruitition,a handfull occur or it remains quiet until the end of September.

18z Loop