Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Today's medium and long range 12z GFS has zero development in the Western Caribbean,but has a couple of CV systems that try to develop.

12z GFS loop

[underthwx]

15 storms mentioned in the video...all of which essentially impact the same regions.....



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

The week has been slow but lets put the GFS into perspective here. It never saw Arlene or Don in the caribbean whereas all the other models were seeing it. Here are my thoughts.

Watch the CMC for potential developement along the EC this weekend. the GFS doesnt see squat.

I think the last half of Sept is going to be big.

I think Texas will see its first October major hurricane on record. Flame away but I am going against climo here.

for those people who say ssts are an obstacle....really?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[cycloneye]

Here is what our friend ROCK is mentioning about CMC off the Carolinas coast.

12z CMC



Saved image.

[bigdan35]

12z nogaps sticking to its story




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[fci]

12z nogaps sticking to its story


http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9669/ngp10prp180troplant.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

NOGAPS has had several hits on South Florida too this season. LOL!

[cycloneye]

The CSU team of Klotzbach/Gray released today their two week forecast of September 14 - 27 , and they are in the below normal camp for this period.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 4_2011.pdf

We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at below-average levels (less than 70 percent of climatology). The average ACE accrued during the period from 1950-2010 from September 14-September 27 was 21 units, and consequently, our forecast for the next two weeks is for less than 15 ACE units to be generated.

The below-average forecast is due to several factors. Tropical Storm Maria will likely generate 1-2 ACE units before dissipation; however, no areas are currently being watched by the National Hurricane Center for development in the next 48 hours. The GFS does not significantly develop any tropical cyclones during the next seven days, while the ECMWF develops the wave currently in the eastern tropical Atlantic into a weak tropical cyclone in the next few days. While the GFS indicates the possibility for some formation during week two, the ECMWF does not develop any additional tropical cyclones during its ten-day forecast period.

The MJO has been rather weak over the past ten days, and most models indicate that the MJO will either remain weak or perhaps propagate into phases that are typically neutral to unfavorable for storm formation in the Atlantic (Phases 5-7). The ClimatePrediction Center’s latest update indicates that the MJO will probably remain weak for the next two weeks.

[rainstorm]

JB seems to agree. he was saying 3-5 "impacts" the rest of the season, now he is saying 2.

[vbhoutex]

forget dr gray. when JB cant even find a storm in sept you know nothing will happen.

What does this have to do with the discussion? What has JB put out stating this? Blanket statements such as this need some sort of back up.

[rainstorm]

its just that that JB hasnt tweeted about anything specific. lets get back to the 12z gfs. at 300 hours it has a huge winter like low over se canada with a powerful trough in the west atlantic. not good for development. at 384 hours it shows somewhat better conditions but no specific storms. perhaps 18z may offer more.

[cpdaman]

see the board next year
jk (in case there is no sense of humor)

[Dean4Storms]

A Tampa area hit is not out of the question if something develops in the western Carib. or Southern GOM with the active westerlies.

[rainstorm]

hopefully someone can post a map of the 264 hr 18z gfs. the winter like high coming into the east this week does not lock into the nw atlantic. instead an even stronger trough comes behind it and at hour 264 the west atlantic is dominated by low pressure and very fast westerly winds.

[CourierPR]

Go to Joe Bastardi's latest tweet one hour ago. He has the latest NOGAPS showing his worry for next week in the NW Caribbean.

[rainstorm]

Go to Joe Bastardi's latest tweet one hour ago. He has the latest NOGAPS showing his worry for next week in the NW Caribbean.

right now no other model shows anything and if the 18z gfs is right it will have a very short window in which to develop.

[lonelymike]

Go to Joe Bastardi's latest tweet one hour ago. He has the latest NOGAPS showing his worry for next week in the NW Caribbean.

Times are tough if JB is relying on one of the worst performing tropical models,,,what a strange season

[Rainband]

Go to Joe Bastardi's latest tweet one hour ago. He has the latest NOGAPS showing his worry for next week in the NW Caribbean.

Times are tough if JB is relying on one of the worst performing tropical models,,,what a strange season

I don't think he is relying on it per say. It's just this is the time of year that this is the area to watch. I hope it's just one model. I like living in the " Hurricane Buffer Zone"

[bigdan35]

0z gfs is back on developing a storm in western caribbean.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z Nogaps develops system in the Caribbean system and hits South Florida at 180hrs:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Rainband]

0z gfs is back on developing a storm in western caribbean.

link