WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[Infdidoll]

ECMW models have been consistent on the track for several days now...but looks like they are predicting it to get even more intense!

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMW models have been consistent on the track for several days now...but looks like they are predicting it to get even more intense!

They really have. I know ECMWF have overcooked strengthening of a few storms this yeah such as Muifa and Ma-on but interests in Okinawa and S Japan should take note - ECMWF really is consistently forecasting a much improved environment. Maybe as it gets lifted up by the trough in about 5 days time it gets a super poleward outflow boost?

[StormingB81]

looks like it is continuing to build....looks like teh forecast are a little different as JMA has it at 45 knots @10 min and JTWC has it at 35 knots at 1 min..so who knows what is going to happend...nd if the ECMWF happends and we locked dow nfor 6 days my kids are going to drive me crazy...lol

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[Extratropical94]

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 26.3N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.5N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.5N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.4N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.2N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.2N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 26.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 129.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey if you guys are watching NHK for the wx I:m like standing off to the side. *not on screen lol

Any how watch the 8pm show, lots of good info going to be put out.

[phwxenthusiast]

Hey if you guys are watching NHK for the wx I:m like standing off to the side. *not on screen lol

Any how watch the 8pm show, lots of good info going to be put out.

congratulations Rob!!! anyway, i'm not sure if it's the same NHK they're showing here in the States... is it "Newsline" and is the met's name is Mei Shoji??

[Infdidoll]

Cool! Do they have some good analysis of what's going on with this storm? I've got everyone and their brother asking me what's going to happen, right now!

[Infdidoll]

I'm using the NHK app for iphone and iPad. Right now, a British girl in a black skirt and blue shirt is doing the world weather. There's a lady named Yuko Fukushima giving the updates. Now there's a show about Japanese earthquakes.

[phwxenthusiast]

I'm using the NHK app for iphone and iPad. Right now, a British girl in a black skirt and blue shirt is doing the world weather. There's a lady named Yuko Fukushima giving the updates. Now there's a show about Japanese earthquakes.

Rachel Ferguson is her name??

[StormingB81]

there is like 0 shear now all around the storm...and it is moving 2 mph very slow now not supposed to be here till monday is the shear stays the same the ECMWF maybe right with that typhoon!!

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[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya it's Rachel doing the weather, she's Scottish actually. Any how I was just there for some training and visiting. But they are going to be doing some detailed updates on the storm. So if you get it the next update airs at11

[StormingB81]

I am interestd to see what the winds will be for the next JTWC warning here in about 45 minutes or so

[StormingB81]

JTWC has it at 35 knots..starting to look like the best 35 knot storm I have ever soon

[StormingB81]

SO now it has been moving due south...what is up with this storm..lol

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1115 ROKE (1115)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 25.6N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE SSW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 280NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 25.6N 129.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 181800UTC 25.7N 128.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 191800UTC 26.2N 128.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[StormingB81]

Wow now all forecasts have it missing Okinawa all together..this is one crazy storm but it has done everything but what was forecasted but I wont do nothing until it clears away but wow this is giving some weather people some headaches

[StormingB81]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just a note, I made this video about 8 hours ago. It passes about the same info that is already being discussed here though. One thing I do mention in the video that has not been discussed here was JMA put out a Tornado Threat Level two along Shikoku.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Al5FgbXhN8[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

For example, granted the storm is to the south, but the main threat areas are going to be farther north with the outflow from the storm. That area already is suffering from Talas, and these rains are going to make the problem worst.

*But also there are some TS admist the rain bands.