Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

This is the Tropical Storm Emily report for Puerto Rico.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/sju/even ... _Emily.pdf

[Macrocane]

These are the temperatures registered on September 14 in Central America:
-Warmer than normal lows were experienced in Nicaragua, the rest of the region had near normal lows.
-Belize registered cooler than normal highs, they were near normal in Guatemala and most of El Salvador and warmer than normal in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10°C (50°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.4°C (52.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.0°C (95.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.9°C (53.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.6°C (92.5°F) Warmest since August 6
Boquete, Panama 23.4°C (74.1°F)

[cycloneye]

A wet weekend is instored for the Eastern Caribbean. Yes Gusty,more rain.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WEST
AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES DECREASED
AND MAY CONTINUE TO DECREASE UNTIL FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...HOWEVER...THEY WERE VERY QUICK TO
DISSIPATE. SOUNDERS CONFIRMED THAT THE PW VALUES HAVE BEEN
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM EAST TO WEST AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TOMORROW.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON TSTMS INCREASE LATE SAT AND SUN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 88 / 10 10 30 40
STT 79 89 79 88 / 10 10 40 40

[Gustywind]

so maybe wet weather conditions in tape... not good news at all!

[cycloneye]

Irene report for Puerto Rico.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=irene2011

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
TODAY...MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THEN LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST AND FILLING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL REFLECTIONS CONTINUE MOVING WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE UPPER
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SATURDAY...BUT STILL WITH LOCALIZED
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTIONS MOVE INTO THE FA...EXPECT MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND COMBINE WITH THE TUTT AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WITH GOOD COOLING AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE TUTT SLOWLY FILLING AND LIFTING NORTH
NORTHEAST...THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE TO THE LOCAL AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR MONDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF TUESDAY...BEFORE A "SOMEWHAT
DRIER" PATTERN DEVELOPS LOCALLY FOR AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
DMZ. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STEMS INCREASE LATE SAT AND SUN. LOLL
ENDS FM E BTW 15 TO 20 KITS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 77 / 20 30 30 40
SETT 88 77 88 78 / 20 30 30 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1102 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

.UPDATE...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES OF 1.50 OR LESS SUGGEST THAT
THIS TYPE OR RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER THE
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO
INDUCE...LIKE YESTERDAY...A NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT
LOW...JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS TUTT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL REFLECTIONS OR
PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...APPROACHING TO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE TO THE REGION WILL DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

[Gustywind]

Yellow code have been required for Martinica, Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms all this weekend.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/sp ... e_2007.php

Given Meteo-France... a "cloud mass related to a rebound in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, will concern our region. She became very active in the evening and especially next night. Thunderstorms will be accompanied by heavy rains and wind gusts".

[Gustywind]

METEO

Still a weekend in yellow vigilance!

franceantilles.fr16.09.2011
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 138857.php


A quite active storm-thunderstorm mass back slowly by Southeast and will affect all the Caribbean from tonight and this arc during the weekend. At the time, the archipelago is facing a new weekend in yellow vigilance.
This afternoon, of snowshowers sometimes alternate with a few transient showers. In the evening and at night, high humidity gradually settled on our islands with in more the beginning of a conflict of air mass. At the time of the stormy rains occur from this night and will continue until Sunday. Time will therefore unfortunately very low this weekend. Attention these storms could be particularly intense Saturday afternoon and the night of Saturday to Sunday.
There is a risk of flooding with values which may exceed 100 mm locally. With the important electrical activity, there is a risk of lightning strikes, sudden gusts of wind of more than 70 km /h under strong grain.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW IS LOCATED NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS WELL SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER WEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A CONVERGENT PATTERN AND MILD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THE TUTT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARDS AND SLOWLY FILL BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND TUTT
INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRIEFLY INDUCE A MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY AS WE ARE CURRENTLY ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBISDENT SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING TUTT. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO BE SHORT LIVED AND LAST
ONLY UNTIL LATE TODAY. EXPECT LINGERING POCKETS OF MOISTURE OVER
THE ISLANDS TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
SUPPORT DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH DRIFTS WEST SOUTHWEST...
EXPECT SUFFICIENT VENTILATION AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES STILL
FEEL THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...
COMBINED WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND IN
ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECT INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE TUTT REPOSITIONS ITSELF
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AND ITCZ MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY LIFTED ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE PASSING INDUCED TROUGH. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE INDUCED TROUGH...EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED IN THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING OF SOME
MAJOR RIVERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANT AFFECT
THE REGION WILL BE DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND BUT THIS FEATURE IS STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO
BEFORE IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS USUALLY MODEL GUIDANCE
AND FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TISX AND TIST AND ON ROUTE BTW THE NRN
LEEWARDS AND ERN PR FM 17/00-17/12Z. AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE SAT AND SUN.
16/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO
25 KNOTS...ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
NORTHWARD AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 77 89 / 40 40 50 50
STT 77 88 78 87 / 40 40 60 60

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1123 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

PRC005-071-099-115-170400-
MOCA PR-AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
1123 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ISABELA...

AT 1115 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ISABELA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS
STORM CAN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE LIGHTNING AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AST.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$

ER

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain for PR today and tommorow as Upper Level Low moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTH AND FILLING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ITS LOW TO MID LEVEL
REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...SHOULD STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
ALBEIT INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOCATION OF
TUTT AND ITS LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY
ACTIVE DAY LOCALLY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH VERY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LOW WBZ HEIGHTS...SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOCAL
EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN LINGERS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
THAT IT MAY WELL CONTINUE NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND PROXIMITY OF TUTT OR ITS REMNANTS TO OUR NORTH...TO ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH VERY LITTLE BREAK IN
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...MORE FREQUENT THAN NORMAL MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 50 50 50 40
STT 86 77 88 78 / 40 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

This is the Euro model that moves 97L to the northern Leewards in 168 hours. Let's continue to watch 97L as it may pose another threat this 2011 season to the NE Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

Loop of the tropical activity...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT ...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 97L In The Far Eastern Atlantic:
I wanted to write briefly on a area of low pressure that is located way out in the eastern Atlantic, about 325 miles to the south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery indicates that this disturbance has become better organized overnight and development into a tropical depression is certainly possible over the next few days as it tracks westward.

The track guidance is pointing towards a general westward track to near 14 North Latitude, 42 or 43 West Longitude by about Wednesday. The SHIPS intensity guidance points to some development into a tropical storm by Monday or Tuesday, but then forecasts weakening as shear values increase by Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is something to keep an eye on, however, I highly doubt this will be a threat anytime soon, if ever. The GFS model does seem to hint at this system possibly affecting Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago right around Friday as a tropical storm & enter the far southeastern Caribbean next Saturday before quickly lifting northward across Puerto Rico and then out into the open Atlantic late next weekend.

[underthwx]

The western Carribean look active this morning on sattellite...might get interesting in the coming days...with the ULL to the NE..97L...way out there...


CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CONTRAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS LADEN
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM S OF
WRN CUBA NEAR 21N83W TO ERN HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS AND ACROSS WRN CUBA
IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH
IS HELPING ENHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 86W-89W...AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
11N-19N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS DOMINATING THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. DRY AIR IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW KEEPING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POPPING UP NEAR THE LOW CENTER N OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-70W AND
AROUND THE ERN SIDE...SOME OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY...WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE ISLANDS TO MOVE WWD WHICH WILL KEEP A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

The western Carribean look active this morning on sattellite...might get interesting in the coming days...with the ULL to the NE..97L...way out there...

Welcome to this thread. Post away anything about the Caribbean or Central America.

[underthwx]

I can't help but notice the Western Carib. this morning...for that matter...the entire region is full of moisture....in the Western Carib. does it look like a Low possibly forming?...

[cycloneye]

I can't help but notice the Western Carib. this morning...for that matter...the entire region is full of moisture....in the Western Carib. does it look like a Low possibly forming?...

Almost the entire Caribbean basin is with moist air.