ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion
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ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 011.invest
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109180437
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011091800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011091700, , BEST, 0, 99N, 369W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091706, , BEST, 0, 99N, 364W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091712, , BEST, 0, 100N, 359W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091718, , BEST, 0, 102N, 355W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091800, , BEST, 0, 104N, 352W,
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109180437
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011091800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011091700, , BEST, 0, 99N, 369W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091706, , BEST, 0, 99N, 364W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091712, , BEST, 0, 100N, 359W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091718, , BEST, 0, 102N, 355W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011091800, , BEST, 0, 104N, 352W,
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 03, 2011 9:46 am, edited 7 times in total.
Reason: To change title
Reason: To change title
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 180439
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0439 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110918 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110918 0000 110918 1200 110919 0000 110919 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 35.2W 10.9N 36.5W 11.3N 37.7W 11.5N 38.9W
BAMD 10.4N 35.2W 10.8N 36.3W 11.1N 37.3W 11.4N 38.3W
BAMM 10.4N 35.2W 10.7N 36.4W 10.9N 37.5W 11.0N 38.5W
LBAR 10.4N 35.2W 10.8N 35.9W 11.3N 36.9W 11.8N 38.4W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110920 0000 110921 0000 110922 0000 110923 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 40.4W 12.2N 44.5W 12.3N 49.7W 12.2N 55.0W
BAMD 11.7N 39.5W 12.6N 42.9W 13.4N 47.1W 14.4N 51.4W
BAMM 10.9N 39.6W 11.0N 42.9W 11.3N 46.8W 12.2N 50.9W
LBAR 12.8N 40.4W 15.0N 45.0W 17.6N 50.5W 19.6N 55.5W
SHIP 48KTS 65KTS 68KTS 66KTS
DSHP 48KTS 65KTS 68KTS 66KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.4N LONCUR = 35.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 35.9W DIRM12 = 71DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 36.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
I can't believe that PR may get another landfalling system in 2011. I know is very early,but I dont have a good feeling about future Ophelia.
On another matter, over or under that thread reaches 50 pages? I say over if it tracks thru Caribbean.
On another matter, over or under that thread reaches 50 pages? I say over if it tracks thru Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
The models like better this system than 97L, actually 97L could be a scapegoat for 98L, let's see how this evolves it could get interesting.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Macrocane wrote:The models like better this system than 97L, actually 97L could be a scapegoat for 98L, let's see how this evolves it could get interesting.
What do you mean Macrocane when you say scapegoat?
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Yeah macrocane explain please
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Sorry I'm not sure if that's the best word to describe it , it was the first translation that came to my mind , I meant 97L could suffer from dry air and other hostile conditions but may moisturize the environment for 98L, so 97L will sacrifice itself for the development of 98L.
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Yikes! I know its early but I'm not liking the looks of this one at all.
Hope my fears are unfounded.
Hope my fears are unfounded.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Ok, I think I was confused, this one is actually west of 97L right, then forget what I said, the models like this one better than 97L, but 97L won't be clearing the path for 98L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
It doesn't matter that 97L is behind 98L?
edited: Ok, now it makes sense.
edited: Ok, now it makes sense.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AFRICA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AFRICA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Why do I think this will find a way to recurve or never get above TS strength or both? lol
The ridge strengthening and moving West is definitely worrisome but it seems the models have seen this time after time and then they back off in the next run. Let's see what happens in the next few runs.
The ridge strengthening and moving West is definitely worrisome but it seems the models have seen this time after time and then they back off in the next run. Let's see what happens in the next few runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:this going take low track? into carribbean
Yes according to the GFS this looks like a low
tracker into the eastern caribbean in about a
weeks time, then on the long range gets pulled
up around DR and then out to sea..lets see what
happens in the mean time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
98L is down in the ITCZ but there is a digging trough to the north that is providing a lot of shear as far south as 15N. Looks like 98L has a better chance of sliding under the trough and some of the models are building a ridge further west. I couldn't determine any LLC from the water vapor imagery, still looks like it is just a broad low area attached to the ITCZ.
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