ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Looks like Ophelia to me at 11am, per it already has winds >35kts and the circulation is good to me.

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[SouthDadeFish]

Should be a TD now in my opinion:

20/1145 UTC 11.7N 36.7W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Lets watch for the renumber.

[clfenwi]

12Z best track; a fair bit west of SAB's guesstimated position

AL, 98, 2011092012, , BEST, 0, 115N, 375W, 25, 1008, LO,

[wxman57]

Yes, it does look quite impressive this morning. It's finally consolidated and is well on its way to being upgraded to a TD today. I don't think there's enough (or any) evidence of TS winds, so the NHC would most likely call it a depression. It's interesting that the intensity model guidance is not very bullish on strengthening, taking it only up to moderate TS strength of around 50 mph by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean. It may be another struggling storm as it moves through the islands. Long-range models are still in good agreement on that deep trof along the East U.S. Coast extending down to the NW Caribbean by late this weekend and early next week. That should turn this system northward once it nears 70W.

[TheBurn]

12Z RGB/NC and MPE

[meriland23]

So how is it looking' ? Anyone have a inkling on it's forecasted track? Is it going to most likely pull another katia/maria?

[cycloneye]

So how is it looking' ? Anyone have a inkling on it's forecasted track? Is it going to most likely pull another katia/maria?

We have to wait for advisories to begin to then have a forecast track by the National Hurricane Center.

[otowntiger]

I hope the trough prediction is correct and this thing is flung away from us and any land for that matter. I hope that this season's story is all about Irene and nothing more. I cannot afford any more insurance rate hikes.

[SouthFloridawx]

Not sure what you are looking HW92. The models from the above graphic show very good agreement and from what I see there is not much evidence for a recurve right now. Could you please provide some thought about why you think there is not a lot of agreement and the system recurving.

Sorry HW92 after rereading your post I think I understand what you are saying. You are saying that there is no model agreement on a definate recurve as of yet. My bad!

Well, it a pretty good bet that this system will NOT recurve before affecting the Leewards and parts of the GA.

However, when it comes to the U.S. it's a completely different story. Look out a little farther. the globals have been very, very consistent in developing a HUGE trough over the eastern U.S. by day 5-6, and it doesnt budge (if anything it drops southward) for several days, resulting in an extended period of strong WSW to W mid and upper level flow over the entirety of the eastern U.S., well southward across the GOMEX, FL and the Bahamas.

If this system were to get all the way to the NW Carib, wouldn't it be a concern to be picked up by the trough and move NE?
Or are the odds strong that it never gets that far and anything that follows that scenario would be homegrown IN the NW Carib?

That's probably where to look for development that may influence the US later down the road. At the end of the trough. In 7 - 10 days...

[cycloneye]

A tentative mission is planned for Friday morning.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 20 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-112

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
23/1200Z ON A SYSTEM NEAR 13.5N 54.0W.

[clfenwi]

This morning's ASCAT pass

[wxman57]

The evidence certainly points to 98L being a TD presently. I have at least one ship report southeast of the center of a SW wind at 15 kts. ASCAT appears to confirm the tightening LLC. It's just a question of when the NHC will begin advisories. Since the last model guidance was released with the header "invest", they may be waiting until this afternoon for the upgrade. Most likely this will be TD Sixteen by 4PM CDT today.

Although it appears to have moved very little over the past 24 hours, careful examination of a long-term loop indicates that the original feature has been overrun by the system to its east. The consolidation of energy is the reason it's wrapping up today. Could be the merger is just giving the illusion of slow movement over the past 12-24 hrs.

With high pressure to its north, though not particularly strong (as evident by only 15kt easterly trade winds), it should progress on a course north of west for the next 3-5 days. There's a good chance it will enter the NE Caribbean in the vicinity of Guadeloupe Island on Saturday. Could be a track very similar to Maria, and note that it's starting in just about the same spot as Maria. I don't see much of a chance of it tracking westward into the central Caribbean (or Gulf) or toward the East U.S. Coast. And there is no guarantee it won't begin recurving even east of the islands.



P.S. Where is everyone? You'd think the hurricane season was over...

[AdamFirst]

Local TV mets down here keep mentioning the trough...we had a couple similar days down here last week where it was still warm but the atmosphere was bone dry. Just pleasant to be outside.

The troughy pattern persists yet again.

[CrazyC83]

ASCAT does not look like a closed circulation.

[wxman57]

Interesting graphics here. Note the projection of steadily increasing wind shear in 98L's path as well as decreasing Relative Humidity (RH):

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL982011

[ouragans]

being in Guadeloupe, I'm there , but that's true that many people fled the forum because nothing really threatens the CONUS.

[wxman57]

ASCAT does not look like a closed circulation.

That's because it only caught the eastern half of the disturbance.

[EDR1222]

P.S. Where is everyone? You'd think the hurricane season was over...

I think the continued recurving storms are not interesting to many people and that is the reason for the drop-off in interest. The fact is many of the ameteurs on here are weather enthusiasts and more specifically hurricane enthusiasts and get excited and exhilarated by an approaching storm. Unfortunatley, I have seen members get beat up on here pretty good by other members for so called "-removed-" or people asking them......"what, you want destruction?". I don't think anybody on here wants death and destruction, but if your seeing an image of a storm on satellite far out in the ocean and the models are showing it recurve well out at sea....the interest probably only goes so far for some. It's ok to like storms and to want to experience some wind and rain that comes with storms, but I think people have shyed away a bit because other members have told them it's not ok to feel that way. I am not speaking for everyone and this is just an observation that I have seen with some of the posts this year.

[Jimsot]

"Interesting graphics here. Note the projection of steadily increasing wind shear in 98L's path as well as decreasing Relative Humidity (RH):"

Great! The story of this season. Another struggling system sheared and disorganized and maybe a problematic track to forecast.