Global model runs discussion

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Rainband

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3161 Postby Rainband » Fri Oct 07, 2011 7:41 am

Denis Phillips mentioned this last night on abcactionnewsweather chat.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3162 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 7:45 am

Rainband wrote:Denis Phillips mentioned this last night on abcactionnewsweather chat.


Your post went to another page and you didn't quote so what did Phillips mentioned? :)
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3163 Postby Rainband » Fri Oct 07, 2011 7:53 am

cycloneye wrote:
Rainband wrote:Denis Phillips mentioned this last night on abcactionnewsweather chat.


Your post went to another page and you didn't quote so what did Phillips mentioned? :)
about a second more potent system. http://www.livestream.com/abcactionnews ... m=ui-thumb
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3164 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 2:05 pm

Breaking News

Is the first time that the ECMWF joins GFS on developing a Caribbean system. Let's see in future runs how this model and GFS develop it. This is on day ten.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3165 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 07, 2011 2:43 pm

The GFS has been developing a Caribbean storm in the 12-16 day range for the past 3-4 weeks on every run. It's always in that 12-16 day range.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3166 Postby blp » Fri Oct 07, 2011 2:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:Breaking News

Is the first time that the ECMWF joins GFS on developing a Caribbean system. Let's see in future runs how this model and GFS develop it. This is on day ten.

[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011100712!!chart.gif


Yes it is and that is the most dangerous area for development in our basin this time of year and the MJO will be at its peak around that time as well. Interesting to see if it continues.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3167 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 2:57 pm

Yes it is and that is the most dangerous area for development in our basin this time of year and the MJO will be at its peak around that time as well. Interesting to see if it continues.


Yes,is only the first run doing this. Let's see if is only a one run thing or is going to continue to show it. And if it continues,then we will have to pay very close attention to that area after mid month.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3168 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 5:12 pm

The MJO wet pulse that is about to arrive in the Caribbean and GOM is one of the strongest I have seen and this is why first GFS has been showing Caribbean development for a good while as wxman57 said and what the ECMWF is starting to show.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3169 Postby bg1 » Fri Oct 07, 2011 5:40 pm

KUEFC wrote:Can the gfs be trusted as a long range model?


I think it was the GFS that had Irene going to Texas 15 days out (before it even formed), but if a trend develops over a few runs with any computer model, it is worth considering.
Last edited by bg1 on Fri Oct 07, 2011 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3170 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Oct 07, 2011 7:48 pm

And the 18Z GFS has nothing significant in the Caribbean throughout the 2 week period. How's that for being reliable? At this rate, it will keep showing something at days 12-16 and we'll be opening Christmas presents while discussing what's coming in 12 to 16 days. Come on already! Let's get it going or shut it down until June.
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Re:

#3171 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 8:15 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:And the 18Z GFS has nothing significant in the Caribbean throughout the 2 week period. How's that for being reliable? At this rate, it will keep showing something at days 12-16 and we'll be opening Christmas presents while discussing what's coming in 12 to 16 days. Come on already! Let's get it going or shut it down until June.


Some consolation Mark is that is the 18z not 00z or 12z. I would wait for the 00z run to see if it continues as 18z without any development, or it goes ahead and develops something in the medium range like what Euro had at 12z.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3172 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2011 8:33 am

Well,I wonder why GFS has abandoned what it had for many many runs of a Caribbean hurricane. :?: :?: :?:
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#3173 Postby bexar » Sat Oct 08, 2011 8:45 am

Are the long-range models showing something interesting for the rest of October? or it would be quiet? :?:
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#3174 Postby hurricanetrack » Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:11 am

Looks like the GFS and Euro have taken the wind out of our sails....


pun intended....
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#3175 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:37 am

to me hurricane season is alot like boat ownership... you're happy to get it and even happier to get rid of it. if there was a magic button i could press to kill it off, I'd hit it without hesitation.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3176 Postby dwsqos2 » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:47 am

The 0Z Euro had a weak small low developing in the SW Caribbean. It's looks elongated, but it's time to grasp at straws.
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Re:

#3177 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:33 am

hurricanetrack wrote:Looks like the GFS and Euro have taken the wind out of our sails....


pun intended....


...wait, Belize if or Not, there may be more to come! Okay sorry, worse pun..... New 12Z starting at 144 hours is now depicting a 1004 low just east of Belize. Gulf of Honduras area is certainly a typical climo hot spot for activity. 180 hr still status quo, but showing larger and deeper consolodation down there.
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Re: Re:

#3178 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:46 am

chaser1 wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:Looks like the GFS and Euro have taken the wind out of our sails....


pun intended....


...wait, Belize if or Not, there may be more to come! Okay sorry, worse pun..... New 12Z starting at 144 hours is now depicting a 1004 low just east of Belize. Gulf of Honduras area is certainly a typical climo hot spot for activity. 180 hr still status quo, but showing larger and deeper consolodation down there.

The proverbial fat lady hasn't sung yet. afterall, it is october in la nina and those waters remain very warm down there.
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Re: Re:

#3179 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:52 am

psyclone wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:Looks like the GFS and Euro have taken the wind out of our sails....


pun intended....


...wait, Belize if or Not, there may be more to come! Okay sorry, worse pun..... New 12Z starting at 144 hours is now depicting a 1004 low just east of Belize. Gulf of Honduras area is certainly a typical climo hot spot for activity. 180 hr still status quo, but showing larger and deeper consolodation down there.

The proverbial fat lady hasn't sung yet. afterall, it is october in la nina and those waters remain very warm down there.


In fact , by the end of the newest 12Z cycle, a 1003 low parked over the S. Central Gulf has begun to spread some desperately needed rain over you guys in parched Texas and furthermore your right about the "Singing Fat Lady". She appears to have gotten a frog caught in her throat!
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3180 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:57 am

Here is the revival by GFS of Caribbean/BOC action mentioned above.

12z GFS Loop
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